2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.
The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...
Ai yai yai...
The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...
Ai yai yai...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.
The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...
Ai yai yai...
Im guessing the non happy hour GFS runs have switched as the 00z GFS run is stronger
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS throws one up this time mid-june most seasons. Statistics input ie mjo/cckw ?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Looks like GFS is back to square one
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Looks like GFS completely dropped it the past couple of runs.
EURO with the win again.
EURO with the win again.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:euro6208 wrote:Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.
The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...
Ai yai yai...
Im guessing the non happy hour GFS runs have switched as the 00z GFS run is stronger
"Happy Hour" GFS runs, at least with the old version, coincided with peak heating (which was actually a verifiable difference with 06Z/18Z runs), meaning the 18Z run for the CONUS. WPac "happy hour" runs would actually be with the 06Z run. Whether this bias remains with the new version remains to be seen however.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
I did a little research on those two consecutive years with weak to moderate El Nino. The only ones in not-so-distant history were '68-'69, '76-'77, and '86-'87. 1969 and 1977 were among the least active years in terms of tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, while 1987 was average, although that year had less tropical cyclone formations compared to '86 (but interestingly, '87 had 6 super typhoons while '86 had 3). I have no idea about the things in play in the atmosphere during El Nino that affects tropical cyclone activity in the WPAC, but it's interesting to note that there might be some negative effects in TC development in WPAC when a weak El Nino extends into the second year. Just to emphasize, I'm talking about consecutive years with weak to mild El Nino, and the 2014-2015 event is obviously not included.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Interesting SCS system. Tropical or Subtropical?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Tailspin wrote:Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
GFS brings it to land sooner. 984 mb straight into Hong Kong.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS looks to have another tropical mischief in the SCS long range.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:Tailspin wrote:Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
GFS brings it to land sooner. 984 mb straight into Hong Kong.
Well that will be something if it happens...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
June is a down month in the WPac, averaging less activity than even May largely due to the Mei-yu. The first ten days of July sees a big uptick climatologically, so I might not get too excited until then. The big early July system has been almost clockwork in recent years.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
As the convective envelope of the MJO moves toward the central and eastern Pacific (Phase 6/7) during the next two weeks, this should support tropical cyclone development for the western Pacific basin. For Week-1, there is high confidence in possible TC formation over the area east of the Philippines, where models are indicating a closed low tracking northwestward later in the period. Over the Bay of Bengal, there is moderate confidence in another TC formation. The GEFS is showing enhanced rainfall over the region with no closed low, while other models are indicating TC formation. Continuing into Week-2, the set up over the western Pacific is expected remain conducive to TC formation.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Those ocean temps are incredibly warm. Once the beast wakes up, i feel all hell will break loose.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The SCS system is still there and quite a midget. Too small to be initialized.
It has another TC in the P.I sea.
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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