2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

Should see another circle soon for future Dalila.

[Ntxw]

Should see another circle soon for future Dalila.

Potential Dalila may have a better future than potential Cosme.

[Kingarabian]

Should see another circle soon for future Dalila.

Potential Dalila may have a better future than potential Cosme.

Past couple GFS runs like future Erick better.

[Kingarabian]

I think there needs to be a 5 day yellow circle for future Dalila this TWO or the following one.

[cycloneye]

Good call Kingarabian

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Euro not so bullish anymore.

GFS and UKMET continue to show things tryna form past 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

This is why the models are not so bullish for now.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1147820542248005632




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1147820938689437696

[NDG]

MV should had dismissed that forecast by CFSv2 of a standing wave over the EPAC when there were indications already that ENSO was cooling down.

[Kingarabian]

This is why the models are not so bullish for now.

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1147820542248005632[url]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1147820938689437696[/rl]

I think they're not bullish due to the MJO moving out of the area. What Ventrice is talking about is long term variables that have less to do with TC activity in the short term.

:uarrow: MV should had dismissed that forecast by CFSv2 of a standing wave over the EPAC when there were indications already that ENSO was cooling down.

There are different filters when it comes to assessing standing waves which can get vey confusing. The first charts factor intraseason variables such as CCKWs and MJO. The CFSv2 was overdoing the strength of an El Nino standing wave such that it stands out or overpowers any MJO passage. This is usually evident in moderate or strong El Nino. Not evident in weak or fading El Nino's.

But his 2nd graphic is the background state and it still shows that at least atmosphericaly, El Nino is still present. The first is by showing prolonged sinking motion near 120E, which during a transition to La Nina or Neutral, should show more rising motion and also a reason why the SOI has been so negative due to lack of convection over the MC. The second is by showing prolonged anomalous rising motion near 130W which is due to the CPAC globally having the warmest or some of the warmest SSTA.

[cycloneye]

Not a bright future.

An area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some slow
development is possible through Thursday while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward. Thereafter, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Not a bright future.

An area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some slow
development is possible through Thursday while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward. Thereafter, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Better chance for development closer to about 130W.

[Kingarabian]

18z Happy hour GFS is very happy hour-ish. Takes the EPAC all the way to Flossie and Gil.

[cycloneye]

18z Happy hour GFS is very happy hour-ish. Takes the EPAC all the way to Flossie and Gil.

Interesting but is only one run so let's see if the next runs have this kind of activity.

[Kingarabian]

18z Happy hour GFS is very happy hour-ish. Takes the EPAC all the way to Flossie and Gil.

Interesting but is only one run so let's see if the next runs have this kind of activity.

It's been on and off for the most part. There is Euro and EPS support in the medium range though.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the best odds of continued TC development over the EPAC is in about 7-10 days. That's when the CFS shows 200mb westerlies disappearing and replaced by easterlies which will help in creating a favorable upper level wind pattern.

[cycloneye]

Looks like GFS is following that and more longtrackers on long range.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave and a weak area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during
the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward
well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

Models still hinting on activity in the 7-1o day period.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96E is up

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Development, if any, of this system should
be slow to occur over the next couple of days while the wave moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Hagen