2019 EPAC season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Dalila, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A tropical wave located almost a thousand miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
cloudiness and showers over a broad area. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for the development of this system
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Some gradual development of the system is expected thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

GFS at least shows something while ECMWF locked into a solid hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

And guess what, the ECMWF at 0z drops the 20/50.

[Kingarabian]

And guess what, the ECMWF at 0z drops the 20/50.

Yup. Just a bunch of ghost storms on the models. And the ones that do develop, are sheared messes. Going to bring down my numbers soon.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC/UKMET still bullish although thats not really saying much.

[Kingarabian]

Of course the 06z GFS now all of a sudden wants to develop the 20/50 system.

[Astromanía]

I was thinking that this low activity was gonna change, but as Kingarabian says, there are just pure fantom storms in the models, they do not know what to do now and really have me crazy, I will look forward to tropical cyclogenesis when I ssee it with my own eyes, but this season has really dissapoint me so far, I think it will be a low or average season at the end.

[hurricanes1234]

I was thinking that this low activity was gonna change, but as Kingarabian says, there are just pure fantom storms in the models, they do not know what to do now and really have me crazy, I will look forward to tropical cyclogenesis when I ssee it with my own eyes, but this season has really dissapoint me so far, I think it will be a low or average season at the end.

Agreed, it feels as though July never happened, with the exception of Barbara. If nothing significant happens in the next two weeks, the chances of this season being above-average are quite slim IMO.

[NDG]

So if the EPAC is only at 67% of average ACE YTD with systems having trouble developing and strengthening along with the WPAC at only 58% ACE YTD ,is this going to be another 2013 repeat?

[Kingarabian]

So if the EPAC is only at 67% of average ACE YTD with systems having trouble developing and strengthening along with the WPAC at only 58% ACE YTD ,is this going to be another 2013 repeat?

This is something to think about.

[Astromanía]

So if the EPAC is only at 67% of average ACE YTD with systems having trouble developing and strengthening along with the WPAC at only 58% ACE YTD ,is this going to be another 2013 repeat?

I was thinking that this low activity in northern hemisphere in general is a great indication that we will see a 2013 analog this year, that's not what I like as a fan of tropical cyclones, but we need to see what August and September brings, but I not so optimistic about a change of this activity, what is clear for me now is that most probably southern hemisphere will have another active or hyperective season in general due to the very early invests we have seen so far, some of they even classifiable.

[Chris90]

I think part of the problem here is that we've been spoiled with activity the past few years in the EPAC. 2014, '15, and '16 were all active, with a dip back down to average in '17, and then we went right back to active last year with record breaking ACE. It's July 25th, and we've had 5 classified cyclones, also bearing in mind this season started late, the basin has only been active for a month now. The CPAC has also consistently been looking like a hot spot this season, and while the season officially begins June 1st there, it's similar to the ATL in it truly becomes favorable during ASO. I think ACE is going to catch up within the next month.

[cycloneye]

No changes.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located several hundred miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located about a thousand miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some
gradual development of the low is expected thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

So if the EPAC is only at 67% of average ACE YTD with systems having trouble developing and strengthening along with the WPAC at only 58% ACE YTD ,is this going to be another 2013 repeat?

This is something to think about.

The Atlantic should be more favorable than it was in 2013.

[cycloneye]

What 12z ECMWF has is the 0/40 one.

[Kingarabian]

So if the EPAC is only at 67% of average ACE YTD with systems having trouble developing and strengthening along with the WPAC at only 58% ACE YTD ,is this going to be another 2013 repeat?

This is something to think about.

The Atlantic should be more favorable than it was in 2013.

Possible. But same can be said for the WPAC and EPAC when comparing them to 2013. They should be more favorable. But they're not.

[Kingarabian]

What 12z ECMWF has is the 0/40 one.

https://i.imgur.com/JCb3DJE.gif

Well at least with this one (although it's in the medium range) has support from all the models.

The 20/50 looks good on satellite so I wouldn't be surprised if it overachieves despite the models not liking it.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has the 0/40 strong moving south of Hilo.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has the 0/40 strong moving south of Hilo.

Also makes the 20/50 a borderline hurricane.

[cycloneye]

The second one up to 0/50.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about a thousand miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some
gradual development of the low is expected thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven