2019 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF sorta brings it back.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a broad
area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some
gradual development of the low is expected thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

INVEST 99E is up

[NDG]

Let the hype on social media begin

[Kingarabian]

Let the hype on social media begin

[url]https://i.imgur.com/36xydOM.png[/rl]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/8kqdQ51.png[/ul]

Lol, right.

Tweet 1: Euro ensembles shows a Hawaii hurricane landfall in 10 days!!!
Tweet 2; This is just a forecast and a lot can change in 10 days, my first tweet was just to click bait!!!

But in all seriousness I hope this doesn't materialize and it either gets ripped apart or misses wide left or right of Hawaii. Historically speaking (IF A SYSTEM EVEN DEVELOPS), the angle that it's coming from puts Hawaii at a lot of risk if the belt of SW shear is not present.

[cycloneye]

Models say will be a biggie but will it be in reallity?

INVEST 90E is up

[cycloneye]

Finnally,the basin looks promising in a big way getting a good deal of ACE with 90E and 99E.Let's see in real time if both do what the models are showing or are a bust.

[Chris90]

And just like that, we kick off long tracker season. What a difference a few days make. Now we just have to see how well 99E and 90E perform. The models seem to like 90E best, but I'm still open to the idea of back-to-back majors out of these two. Exceeding expectations happens with decent frequency in this basin, and ssts are above average. It'll come down to shear and any dry air issues that may arise.

[Astromanía]

damn! it looks like a direct hit! or close...

[Yellow Evan]

That's nowhere near a direct hit.

[gatorcane]

The EPAC is coming alive. Not a surprise as the basin is hard to keep suppressed. July is typically a good month for EPAC ACE also. And as typically is the case as we head into August, once the EPAC slows down it then becomes the Atlantic’s turn.

[Ntxw]

It took a little bit after the passage of the CCKW (upper pattern improvement) but it's starting to come together. A couple of to-be Hurricanes moving in the direction of Hawaii this week. Should be 30+ units of ACE between the two.

[cycloneye]

We got a new area to watch.'

A broad area of disturbed weather is associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible late this week while
the system moves quickly westward, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why this an AOI given there is no model support.

[Kingarabian]

Not sure why this an AOI given there is no model support.

Not too bad:

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure area has formed within a large region of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles south of Manzanillo. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development late this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

A broad low pressure area has formed within a large region of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles south of Manzanillo. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development late this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Wow the NHC is actually quite bullish.

[Kingarabian]

Last couple of days, theres been a strong EPS signal for something to form in the 192-240hour range.

[Kingarabian]

Operational Euro and GFS picking up on it and this may be future Gil towards the 2nd week of August:

Keep in mind that this season, systems trying to form near the Mexican coast have struggled.

In the long range, GFS picking up on more system(s), towards the third week of August:

[Chris90]

I can believe in a decently strong tropical storm that close to the Mexican coast, I'm just skeptical of majors over that way this year. Seems like the highest favorability is the western portion of the EPAC and the CPAC and that is what long-range model runs have been consistently showing anyway.
We'll have to see if these trends hold or if the models start flip flopping on these potential storms.