Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

This becomes a recurving weak Bahama Mama day 10 on the 12Z GFS fwiw. Way too close for comfort for the SE US at this still far point in the forecast.

Expect more adjustments westward if you asked me.

General model bias of a tendency for too much E US troughing would agree with you fwiw.

Though... I haven't seen a run yet that doesn't show a trough there so we shall see.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
a broad area of shower activity. No significant development of this
system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for
development by the weekend while the wave continues westward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[storminabox]

The models have been overly aggressive with the troughing in the east throughout the entire summer so far, when in reality, more often than not, that hasn’t been the case. In Boston, where I live, we are on track to have the warmest July on record, and have had very persistent ridging so far, despite the predominant -NAO signature. From what I have observed, the impact of a -NAO seems to be muted in the summer compared to the other seasons. Overall, I wouldn’t put too much stock into the overly troughy models at this time. Regardless of what happens, this is the first wave that has come off of Africa this season that I have been impressed with this and this actually looks like it has a decent shot at developing. We’ll see what happens but this is certainly a tell-tale sign that the peak of the season is not too far away. Looking forward to tracking this.

[CyclonicFury]

The ECMWF has been relatively consistent at developing this, but the track has been all over the place. The 12z run recurves but passes near Bermuda as a weak TS.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

The Weekly CPC hazard graphic has it.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1156300397868400650

[Aric Dunn]

FIrst real distinct eddy was visible on the NW edge of the convection just before sunset. vorticity is increasing.

[Aric Dunn]

I am particularly intrigued with the few members that bend back due west in the Bahamas...

[TheStormExpert]

Well this place got deserted when the 12z runs came in! Btw, has anyone seen the latest 12z UKMET run? I’m going to guess it’s probably into Florida or the Eastern GoM.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS showing development now




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[gatorcane]

Looks like a recurve on the 18Z GFS well east of the CONUS.

[Dylan]

The 18z GFS (Legacy) shows a much more dangerous solution, holding off development until 96L (Come on, we know it’s coming) reaches the NW Caribbean in about 10 days. The run isn’t finished as of this post, but in close development is my prImary concern this season.

[SFLcane]

Looks like a recurve on the 18Z GFS well east of the CONUS.

Indeed...hopefully it doesn’t impact anyone.

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS (Legacy) shows a much more dangerous solution, holding off development until 96L (Come on, we know it’s coming) reaches the NW Caribbean in about 10 days. The run isn’t finished as of this post, but in close development is my prImary concern this season.

The 18z GFS Legacy doesn’t even start development until it reaches the NE tip of the Yucatán peninsula.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[abajan]

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/lXuiXC8.png[url]

I was kinda shocked to see the jump to 40%.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1156340330981187585

[Cpv17]

Looks like a recurve on the 18Z GFS well east of the CONUS.

This time of the year I’m pretty sure storms rarely recurve ots. That’s more likely to happen in late September and into October.

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t believe any computer model right now for track or strength. It’s way too early in the game for any of that.