Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

Powerful hurricane in the Bahamas and further westward then 12z run

[knotimpaired]

Oh yeah. Not again please another one for Puerto Rico.There are still many homes with tarps.Wont say nothing more.

I will. NO, NO, NO !!!!!

[Kingarabian]

Oh yeah. Not again please another one for Puerto Rico.There are still many homes with tarps.Wont say nothing more.

Hopefully it's just one run.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that is a very unsettling run to say the least . Ridge is building back westward this 18Z run. It is thankfully just one run! But the trend is not boding well.

Days and days to come of model watching. No doubt the odds of this traversing past 70 degrees Longitude look pretty solid analyzing the GFS and EIRO long range.

What a week we look to have tracking this across the Atlantic!

[cycloneye]

Oh yeah. Not again please another one for Puerto Rico.There are still many homes with tarps.Wont say nothing more.

Hopefully it's just one run.

I really hope it was a very bad run.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Yeah, that is a very unsettling run to say the least . Ridge is building back westward this 18Z run. It is thankfully just one run! But the trend is not boding well.

Days and days to come of model watching. No doubt the odds of this traversing past 70 degrees Longitude look pretty solid analyzing the GFS and EIRO long range.

What a week we look to have tracking this across the Atlantic!

building and the trough almost cuts off into a low. but the weakness was already made .. but if that happens sooner that off to the west it will go..

[OuterBanker]

Closer but final run of the 18z is still safely ots.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS legacy is still more reasonable in the first 3 to 5 days than the GFS. after that is all speculation.. but the 18z Legacy is concerning..

[ConvergenceZone]

it's super super early in the hurricane season. Enjoy the recurves while you can, because come end of August, this will be a different story..............

You can predict the future?

No, but I'm just stating the obvious

[crownweather]

18Z GFS Legacy ends up with a very close brush with the eastern FL Peninsula late next week.

[SFLcane]

Um...GFS legacy stop that

[northjaxpro]

I have to say again that recently, the GFS has performed better in the longer range forecasts beyond 7 days than the EURO, so these runs currently from the GFS carries some pretty good significance with me. I know we will see more variances and fluctuations with future model runs.

But, no doubt EVERYONE definitely needs to be paying attention to the forecasts and developments with.this next cyclone and rightfully so!! This could be a potentially BIG one!

[Aric Dunn]

Well the end of the legacy has it slowing down and ridging filling to the north and the atlantic ridge building north west.. its trapped.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro runs in about an hour or so.

[AutoPenalti]

Hoo boy, that was quite a scare. Only 40 more GFS runs to go until one of them verifies...

[SFLcane]

[plasticup]

The 18z GFS that everyone is talking about:



Goes on to 966 in the Bahamas

[crownweather]

I have to say again that recently, the GFS has performed better in the longer range forecasts beyond 7 days than the EURO, so these runs currently from the GFS carries some pretty good significance with me. I know we will see more variances and fluctuations with future model runs.

But, no doubt EVERYONE definitely needs to be paying attention to the forecasts and developments with.this next cyclone and rightfully so!! This could be a potentially BIG one!

The difference between the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Euro is night and day, to say the least!! Interesting part is that the Euro ensembles are still "on board" with a tropical system at least threatening the Bahamas in the LR, it's just the deterministic version that's off the development/strengthening train.

[SFLcane]

966mb of SFL coast on the GFS Legacy..

[Frank2]

The EURO might be correct this time, with the dry air hammer forcing the convection into the ITCZ. We've seen these late July teasers before - the models jump up and down but the system never gets going....

Let's hope so, because here in South Florida the reasonable (normal traffic flow) evacuation time is out to 5 days - 4 days is rough, and 3 days you're stuck here...