ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

[SFLcane]

00z HWRF...

[TheStormExpert]

00z HWRF...

https://i.imgur.com/TNNDFp9.png

I seriously wonder what's the point of these hurricane models (especially the HWRF)? Always blowing everything into a doomsday Cat.4

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS is much weaker so far.

[SFLcane]

Lol another poof... GFS drops it all together. Fine with me.

[bamajammer4eva]

Hmm Euro drops it and new GFS does too. Its barely even August so maybe much ado about nothing

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't get too caught up in the models going poof... this happens nearly everytime.... also remember that both models ensemble members had plenty that went poof when the operational was not. They are COMPUTER models after all and there are a lot of variables that change. They are highly susceptible to the butterfly effect.

[Hurricaneman]

Hmm Euro drops it and new GFS does too. Its barely even August so maybe much ado about nothing

Part of that is the tutt and also going over Hispaniola and Cuba but the one thing I also noticed is the 6zGFS is showing this near the central GOM this run

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm Euro drops it and new GFS does too. Its barely even August so maybe much ado about nothing

Part of that is the tutt and also going over Hispaniola and Cuba but the one thing I also noticed is the 6zGFS is showing this near the central GOM this run

Yeah that is what should be taken out of the 6z gfs.... central gulf.. and legacy is nw carrib... so yeah

[knotimpaired]

I wouldn't get too caught up in the models going poof... this happens nearly everytime.... also remember that both models ensemble members had plenty that went poof when the operational was not. They are COMPUTER models after all and there are a lot of variables that change. They are highly susceptible to the butterfly effect.

Thank you Aric, I agree. One problem we have on Vieques and PR (think Maria) is when the NHC starts getting wishy washy such as still having it at 10/70% but lowering the color to Yellow, it confuses many and then they let their guard down and may ignore possible new warnings in the coming days. I constantly stress to people to monitor Storm2k!

[Hurricaneman]

Also one thing to consider with the GFS is if this goes north of its track it gets sheared by the TUTT, goes on track verbatim it can’t strengthen or form due to land interaction but if this goes into the Caribbean without too much land interaction this may have a chance to become something significant so it’s wait and see

[N2FSU]

Yeh I'm not fixated on strength this far out, but the westward trend is concerning.

6z GFS:

[p1nheadlarry]

I wouldn't get too caught up in the models going poof... this happens nearly everytime.... also remember that both models ensemble members had plenty that went poof when the operational was not. They are COMPUTER models after all and there are a lot of variables that change. They are highly susceptible to the butterfly effect.

Rather, looking at reasons why they either carry or drop development in the 7 day period is most important, too far ahead of time to look at anything else really.

[NDG]

With it looking like crap this morning you have to give some possibilities of the latest Euro and 06z GFS of it not developing at all verifying.

[OuterBanker]

00z gfs eye popping. 06 hrs nada.
Cmc, Euro nada.
Windshield wiper on high and it's not even raining.

[NDG]

00z HWRF...

https://i.imgur.com/TNNDFp9.png

HWRF has been performing horrible this season so far, way too aggressive. But it will be right once a system finds the right UL conditions to bomb out

[AutoPenalti]

00z gfs eye popping. 06 hrs nada.
Cmc, Euro nada.
Windshield wiper on high and it's not even raining.

I thought that only applied to the noodles.

[ava_ati]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1156889696406036484

[Aric Dunn]

90 hour 6z euro simulated vis.

[jlauderdal]

00z HWRF...

https://i.imgur.com/TNNDFp9.png

HWRF has been performing horrible this season so far, way too aggressive. But it will be right once a system finds the right UL conditions to bomb out

gfs legacy and hwrf have been bombing out systems for years

[SFLcane]

12z models...