ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Maybe we will get some surface obs when this rolls through the islands?
We've seen mid level illusions before and without a surface pressure gradient there won't be much left after the Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

96l no more nhc have kill it on outlook * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

It is trying but will likely run out of time before the low level flow increases even more.

[abajan]

Maybe we will get some surface obs when this rolls through the islands?
We've seen mid level illusions before and without a surface pressure gradient there won't be much left after the Caribbean.

Yep. I'll never forget what happened a few years back, when what most would've sworn, from observing just the satellite loops, was a full-blown hurricane in the area of the Bahamas. Well, it turned out that all the action was happening at the mid levels. Zip nada zilch at the surface.

[Nimbus]

Maybe we will get some surface obs when this rolls through the islands?
We've seen mid level illusions before and without a surface pressure gradient there won't be much left after the Caribbean.

Yep. I'll never forget what happened a few years back, when most would've sworn, from observing just the satellite loops, was a full-blown hurricane in the area of the Bahamas. Well, it turned out that all the action was happening at the mid levels. Zip nada zilch at the surface.

Unless there is someone who can go run up that big green hill on St Lucia with an anemometer, we may never know..

[USTropics]

Appears 96L has been deactivated, no updated track info and 0/0% on chances of development with latest TWO.

[floridasun78]

Appears 96L has been deactivated, no updated track info and 0/0% on chances of development with latest TWO.

it still on navy site https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... &TYPE=ssmi

[USTropics]

Appears 96L has been deactivated, no updated track info and 0/0% on chances of development with latest TWO.

it still on navy site https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... &TYPE=ssmi

They're still using the 12z best track info, no update for 18z from NHC - https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962019.dat

[DioBrando]

LOL!

"A westward-moving tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the
central Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, and no
further organization of this system is anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent."

[floridasun78]

LOL!

"A westward-moving tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the
central Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, and no
further organization of this system is anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent."

still 96l but i see done by monday

[drezee]

It is at least a very sharp trough. N coast of Barbados has NNE winds at 10mph gusting to 16...

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISAINTAN96

[Hurricane Jed]

This thing is burnt toast.

[Nimbus]

Light winds from the ~west with surface pressure near 29.87 in Grenada in the last couple hours.
Lowest observed surface pressure was near 1010 MB.
COC looked further north from Satellite probably a sign of shear.

[wxman57]

Nothing at all at the surface. It's fading fast. Time to look elsewhere for the next storm. With any luck, we'll make it to September before Chantal forms.

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like I’m going home from Anguilla tomorrow after all, yay.

[GCANE]

I still see 96L on NRL and RAMMB

In fact CIMSS has the 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb vorts now stacked.
In the clear at 200mb.

IR satellite analysis showing much better structure than yesterday.

Moderate convection firing over the CoC along a North/South Shear Gradient.
Looks like shear is dropping ahead of it.

Big issue is mid-level dry air north of it.
Convection firing south of PR may moisten it up though.

Going to watch this until it lines up with Hispaniola.
If vorts stay intact, may see some action then.
Any kind or long-duration, high rain-rate tower could easily set this off.

In terms of scoring models, I would say new GFS did much better than Euro on forecasting the mid-Atlantic ridging and the middle-level / low-level vort dissociation.
With that said, it looks like this could run the Yucatan channel if it spins up around Jamacia.

[GCANE]

Forgot to mention the TUTT to its NE.
Going to get in the position for a poleward outflow channel to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

Forgot to mention the TUTT to its NE.
Going to get in the position for a poleward outflow channel to develop.

Yeah, it went from easterly shear yesterday to neutral currently.

Only problem will be keeping/closing off the south side due to it forward motion

It will take a lot of sustained convection

[GCANE]

Judging by the increase in lightning, it may be picking up some steam in the graveyard.
DMAX could give it a shot in the arm.

[Aric Dunn]

Judging by the increase in lightning, it may be picking up some steam in the graveyard.
DMAX could give it a shot in the arm.

The west side of the convection is already show the V shape .. which typically means it is already caught up in the low level flow. But will have to keep watch anyway