ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Overshooting tops continue to fire after DMAX with increasing lightning intensity.

[GCANE]

This last overshooting top looks like a vortical hot tower.
Fired off with a very intense lightning burst, distinguishable helicity, and reminiscent cirrus with gravity waves.

[floridasun78]

pretty strong storm with ex i96

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty impressive mid level circ colocated with the low level vort developing on sat.. if deep convection can continue to maintain it might be able to over come the low level flow. It still has 24 hours of low shear As it rides just south of the strong shear.

[GCANE]

Looks like its taking off.
That VHT may have drove the angular momentum of the mid-level vort down to the surface.
Towers continue to fire off with lightning.
They are rotating counter clockwise around 14.9N 62.5W
Cirrus expanding out in all radial directions.
It may already be connecting up an outflow channel from the TUTT.

Not bad for working the graveyard shift.

[floridasun78]

wxman will soon come out say this not thing write mom about

[GCANE]

Strong anticyclone has developed over the north tip of South America.
Looks like expanding the drop in shear ahead of this.

Its just picking up the periphery of the TUTT's UL winds.
TUTT appears to be expanding to its SW.

All in all, UL conditions are improving for development.

[GCANE]

wxman will soon come out say this not thing write mom about

He'll come out with surface obs that are hundreds of miles away from this.

[shiny-pebble]

This is more of a theoretical question, but if development now suddenly appeared likely for 96L, and the NHC wanted to put it back into the TWO, would it still be under 96L, or 97L?

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[Hurricane Jed]

This is more of a theoretical question, but if development now suddenly appeared likely for 96L, and the NHC wanted to put it back into the TWO, would it still be under 96L, or 97L?

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I believe it’d still be 96L.

[Aric Dunn]

This is more of a theoretical question, but if development now suddenly appeared likely for 96L, and the NHC wanted to put it back into the TWO, would it still be under 96L, or 97L?

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

It would be 96l still.

[Aric Dunn]

Only problem here is.. it would have to be some very overwhelming evidence. Otherwise nhc is just going to act like there is nothing there for 24 hours.. then it will hit shear ..

[tailgater]

Strong anticyclone has developed over the north tip of South America.
Looks like expanding the drop in shear ahead of this.

Its just picking up the periphery of the TUTT's UL winds.
TUTT appears to be expanding to its SW.

All in all, UL conditions are improving for development.

yes I was noticing the same thing, surprising, but I would be totally shock if developed before it got past Jamaica and that’s where the models currently totally dissipate the low level vorticity.
The low level flow is really strong until then.

[floridasun78]

Only problem here is.. it would have to be some very overwhelming evidence. Otherwise nhc is just going to act like there is nothing there for 24 hours.. then it will hit shear ..

their likely see that low was with area last week it gone so wont form only area of storm moving through carribbean

[GCANE]

Another Big Ass tower firing off north of 15N with huge burst of lightning.
Pretty much right in the dry line.
Indicative of a very strong updraft.

[floridasun78]

Another Big Ass tower firing off north of 15N with huge burst of lightning.
Pretty much right in the dry line.
Indicative of a very strong updraft.

that good or bad for system to start?

[GCANE]

Another Big Ass tower firing off north of 15N with huge burst of lightning.
Pretty much right in the dry line.
Indicative of a very strong updraft.

that good or bad for system to start?

Good

[floridasun78]

i think because of shear
ahead of it nhc are not worry about it

[GCANE]

Those low-level clouds NW of 15N 65W are making a turn to the SW.
TUTT is definitely creating an outflow channel.

[floridasun78]

if their spin look to be north strong storms