2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#501 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:14 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:What does 18z euro have is it out yet?


The 18Z Euro doesn’t go out nearly that far.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#502 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:20 pm

18z GEFS.. still not that many members showing development. But with the Euro and GFS hinting at something it is worth watching.

also nothing wrong with 6z and 18z GFS.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#503 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:30 pm

5 day SAL forecast. a little less SAL after this current heavy plume.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#504 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:30 pm

Less concerned about track and intensity 348hrs out, but what stands out is that we are starting to notice lowering pressures in the basin as we enter phases 1 and 2 during the end of the month.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#505 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:NHC does not bite.


Hi Luis,

Why would they on a 200+hr tc that will probably be gone next run. Atlantic still remains very hostile
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#506 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NHC does not bite.


Hi Luis,

Why would they on a 200+hr tc that will probably be gone next run. Atlantic still remains very hostile


well 4 to 5 days for the SW carrib :P
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#507 Postby Tailspin » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:29 pm

Maybe the seed the ec ens were pointing too
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#508 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:38 pm

Tailspin wrote:Maybe the seed the ec ens were pointing too
http://i67.tinypic.com/dgtnj9.png
http://i67.tinypic.com/2q99vh5.png


Yep! That looks to be it. Maybe finally something to watch.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#509 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:15 pm

Considering how erratic the GFS has been in the EPAC (although it did correctly predict the most recent WPAC outbreak), I have my skepticism but the timing of this matches well with a CCKW that recently sparked the WPAC. For sure warrants keeping an eye on.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#510 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z GEFS.. still not that many members showing development. But with the Euro and GFS hinting at something it is worth watching.

also nothing wrong with 6z and 18z GFS.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abrammer/graphics/gefs_realtime/plots/surf_circ/GEFS_ca_surf_circ_57978.240.jpg


What's the timing if something were to develop?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#511 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:55 pm

Looks like this shouldn't just be brushed off as a figment of the "happy hour" run. GFS brings it to 994, and the legacy is much more bullish at 963. Maybe some new data was ingested, we'll have to see how the Euro plays out.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#512 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:02 am

Interestingly GFS still has it but weaker.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#513 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:00 am

Suspicious echo on both the GFS and Euro between a gulf disturbance and an EPAC storm. I wonder which will end of developing, if either do.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#514 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:08 pm

At this range all the models can do is tell us conditions may be more favorable in the Gulf and nearby. That's my take.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#515 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:20 pm

Exactly, it is clear the GFS is highly inconsistent in the long-range and even in the medium to long-range for that matter. But my take is that conditions could be improving for some development in either the Western Caribbean / Yucatán / Gulf. The Euro is also thinking something similar so bears watching. It will be difficult to get out of August without a named system when just 3% of years in the satellite era had no system in August.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#516 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:34 pm

Crickets continue on the 18z GFS... :roll:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#517 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:22 pm

Here's the latest Euro long range. I'm deleting more silly model bashing, if you don't have anything constructive to add to the conversation then please refrain from posting.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#518 Postby MacTavish » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:09 pm

Not sure what everyone is complaining about with the GFS. It has definitely cut back on the number of phantom storms from previous years. Yeah, its catching on to something moving into the gulf region but thats a week out almost.. and obviously no model is going to have the details down at this point in time.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#519 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:19 pm

The NAVGEM goes out 240 hours now. Link to bookmark:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#520 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:23 am

Image
Image
Image

As per latest GFS it looks like the WAM is finally expected to weaken, allowing the ITCZ to take over, around the end of August. Wave circled looks like it might be the first MDR storm to show up in the models, I'd expect around when the models start reaching Sep 2-4.
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