Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[NDG]

12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif

You can also see from today’s Canadian that the origins is from this Eastern Caribbean wave, Canadian shows a weak area of vorticity in the GOM which looks to try and develop as it recurves but runs out of time:

[NDG]

12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif

You can also see from today’s Canadian that the origins is from this wave, Canadian shows a weak area of vorticity in the GOM which looks to try and develop but runs out of time:

https://i.postimg.cc/Ssyts72d/gem-z850-vort-watl-31.png

If the Canadian now has development with this wave it means Derek Ortt will now pay attention to it

[gatorcane]

12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif/quote]

You can also see from today’s Canadian that the origins is from this wave, Canadian shows a weak area of vorticity in the GOM which looks to try and develop but runs out of time:

https://i.postimg.cc/Ssyts72d/gem-z850-vort-watl-31.png

If the Canadian now has development with this wave it means Derek Ortt will now pay attention to it

Hey at least the cyclone-happy Canadian is showing a hint of something. That is a start!

Meanwhile crickets on the GFS

[Cpv17]

12z GFS dropped the idea of the northern end of this TW possibly developing over the FL straights/SE GOM.
But at least is more clear that the moisture heading into the BOC and possibly TX gulf coast by the end of next week is coming from the TW over south central Caribbean while this TW over the Windward Islands is forecasted to take a more northerly track over the islands and eventually SE GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/HM7gxX5.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GMKmCSd.gif

The moisture moves into LA, not TX. It gets towards the coast and then boom decides to move NE.

[stormlover2013]

Euro tries to spin something up on the upper Texas coast still needs to be watched

[Cpv17]

Euro tries to spin something up on the upper Texas coast still needs to be watched

Yeah with all the rain into LA

[SoupBone]

00Z GFS shows a slight blip on Saturday, but nothing of noteworthiness. It shows that EPAC system going along Baja.

[Aric Dunn]

The vorticity is in the central carrib on the western side of that convection.. it is farther north than the EUro had it. at that latitude it wouldnt interact with land as much on it's track to the Gulf. . maybe we will see the models shift back to gulf development. maybe gain a little extra vorticity in the western carrib from the divergent upper flow since it might be over water more.

12z Euro still tries to develop it. needs to be watched of course.

[NDG]

The way I see it, this tropical wave axis coming into the picture below will interact with the mid level vorticity at h70 & h50 over Nicaragua in a couple of days near the BOH, not sure which entity will be the most benefited from. They will both interact with an ULL forecasted to get over them initially but eventually an UL ridge will build very close to it as it moves to the NW GOM towards the persistent weakness over the northern gulf coast.

[SoupBone]

The way I see it, this tropical wave axis coming into the picture below will interact with the mid level vorticity at h70 & h50 over Nicaragua in a couple of days near the BOH, not sure which entity will be the most benefited from. They will both interact with an ULL forecasted to get over them initially but eventually an UL ridge will build very close to it as it moves to the NW GOM towards the persistent weakness over the northern gulf coast.

http://i.imgur.com/ZYp5cbUh.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fcGrfRN.gif
https://i.imgur.com/HRY3hHu.gif

That last one you posted has it going into Louisiana. I get it can change, but as I've said about the death ridge over Texas, it doesn't want to go anywhere.

[cycloneye]

Edited title to add Central as wave axis has passed 70W.

[Monsoonjr99]

Seems a bit eerie how this wave looks to take a similar track to Harvey around the same exact dates.

[KatDaddy]

Something to watch closely through the upcoming week for the TX and LA coast.

[Hurricaneman]

This should develop looking at the fact it’s going to run into that low near Costa Rica and move NW into the BOC and into the Gulf and the conditions are favorable for some development, hoping nothing like Humberto 2007

[Nimbus]

Probably an infrared illusion but the low on the coast of Nicaragua appears to be just drifting.
I gather some of the models think the wave will catch up just off Belize after the low crosses Honduras?

[Aric Dunn]

Probably an infrared illusion but the low on the coast of Nicaragua appears to be just drifting.
I gather some of the models think the wave will catch up just off Belize after the low crosses Honduras?

from the looks of everything over the last week of model runs. various pieces of energy in different levels eventually come together... the wave in central carrib catches up to mid level energy currently in western carrib... etc..

then move NW until it finds a better environment. the only real question is timing and ridge strength.. when does it turn ?

it either runs into mexico or turns north sooner.

If it is slower then it will turn right sooner. just have to wait. a lot of things have to happen for this.

[SoupBone]

00Z GFS says nope. That EPAC system is key to this non-development.

[Aric Dunn]

The main wave and low level energy is approaching the western carrib. Lets see what happens today with convection and its location.. how far north.. etc..

[stormlover2013]

Upper level winds aren’t to favorable