2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Favorable conditions should return later this month.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Last 2 GFS runs sensing some marked decrease in activity after showing multiple systems.
latest EURO same with GFS on the slowdown.
latest EURO same with GFS on the slowdown.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
In the western Pacific, both GEFS and ECMWF still maintain a broad area of low pressure in the Philippine Sea during the end of Week-1 and into Week-2, but it is more likely the formation of a tropical low would now occur after the beginning of Week-2 in the region.
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
We have 97W and 98W at the moment. Also keep an eye on possible formation of a low pressure area near the Ryukyu islands, though anything that does form will most probably head northward with little to no development.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS went crazy in the long range of the 06Z run
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hayabusa wrote:GFS went crazy in the long range of the 06Z run
Indeed.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
EPS with favorable conditions returning in the last week of August to early September.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
For a few days now, GFS has been very active in developing not one but maybe two TC's.
12Z
12Z
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
18Z
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
EURO latching onto something.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Well well...GFS after so many days of depicting twins has backed off from any development after EURO hops on board. Ai...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Looks like a hostile September/October is on its way.
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
DioBrando wrote:https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/RtRqv4vDPhD1HT58_dsP72Yec41fwValrphrhUdV3rw/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/ECYivnUXUAAUAEU.jpg%3Alarge?width=469&height=375
Looks like a hostile September/October is on its way.
There are lots of super long range forecasts coming out and I just don't know which to believe lol. And to forecast that WPAC will shut down in October is pretty bold. Even the lame years like 1998, 2010 and 2011 managed to spawn super typhoons in the last quarter.
Although personally, I'm inclined to think that 2019 will be one of those lackluster years of the WPAC. Yes, there was this burst of activity with Francisco, Lekima and Krosa earlier this month, but to me that was still quite underwhelming. If there will be no follow-up typhoons in the next two weeks then I will be convinced that this year is a below-average one just like 2010, 2011, and 2017.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
After 97W maybe does a thing, it doesn't look like there is much to keep an eye on in the shorter term. Further out 9-10 days from now, European and Canadian guidance brings a stronger burst of low level monsoon westerlies across the Philippines and into the Philippine Sea. I might watch for development there beginning around then. The GFS/GEFS on the other hand, does not extend the monsoon low level jet and keeps it retracted not even to the South China Sea. The operational GFS also is developing a fairly strong typhoon from a hardly-discernible disturbance during the same time period. Color me skeptical.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS sides with EURO on a weak TC just east of Luzon.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
I'm looking forward to the next 10 names.
Five of them reached category 5 status. Can you guess them?
Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Faxai
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Hagibis
Neoguri
Five of them reached category 5 status. Can you guess them?
Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Faxai
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Hagibis
Neoguri
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Week 2 sees the potential.
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