ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

ULL has moved off the GA coast with an extended trough along FL Coast



https://i.imgur.com/r6y1x0V.png

Yep that should be enough to push this to the ne.. at least to an extent.. we may still see the energies split.


Otherwise convection is increasing and radsr is showing a possiple center reformation somewhere to the east in said convection.

Should still have a TC sooner rather than later.

[Aric Dunn]

Also.. those who thought fliruda would be rain free.. think again.

Alot of mositure is being thrown to the west.. weekend looks to be a wash for most. Especially all along the east of the spine of florida.

Well that and the wave in the gulf will be spreading moisture from the west over the state by sunday as well.

[SFLcane]

This thing blowing up this morning...

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks better than yesterday IMO. Yesterday, the mid-level center was too far to the east of the developing surface vort. However, today the environment looks to be slightly less favorable. I think the EC forecast of a developing TC moving parallel to the US east coast seems very reasonable.

[hohnywx]

8 AM TWO bumped up development changes to 70%

Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is
located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern
coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily
northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over
the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit
development during that time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back
over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves
from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and
southern and central Florida through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[NDG]

Also.. those who thought fliruda would be rain free.. think again.

Alot of mositure is being thrown to the west.. weekend looks to be a wash for most. Especially all along the east of the spine of florida.

Well that and the wave in the gulf will be spreading moisture from the west over the state by sunday as well.

Yep, whoever thought we were going to get a rain free weekend is wrong, the heaviest rains may stay to the east but usually a west to SW winds means a very wet set up for afternoon thunderstorms from interior/coastal central FL down to the SE FL.
Interesting that both the euro and gfs show the energy from the western GOM system looping around through FL then back west into the open GOM next week.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we will be having a TD very soon....

[SFLcane]

If this thing tracks across SFL and comes back out into the atlantic there could be some serious rainfall down here. Don't need a strong system to cause problems.

[Aric Dunn]

If this thing tracks across SFL and comes back out into the atlantic there could be some serious rainfall down here. Don't need a strong system to cause problems.

https://i.imgur.com/JMZyLhZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/gfGRau9.png

Yeah, rainfall should still be a good amount.

the deep layer bam is interesting. a little outside of its latitude. but the gfs has had similar runs previously. It is moves slowly, constantly fighting the competing steering, then all the models show the ridging building back in about 3 to 4 days. something to keep an eye on.

[GCANE]

IMHO the center may reform under the convection.
Visible Satellite is showing weak feeder bands into the convection.
They are over the Gulf Stream.
Water Vapor Satellite is showing a moisture feed over the feeder bands.
This in indicative of Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange (WISHE) occurring.
Mid-level dry air may not be a big factor here after all.
If the low-level vort picks up angular momentum, I expect WISHE to increase and 98L could ramp up relatively quickly.

[caneman]

Some have been touting the Euro but other models that predicted over Florida and possibly slighty into gulf may end up being more spot on. Looks like West Florida may end up with some of that rain. Something we dont need after 6 days of heavy rainfall

[Aric Dunn]

06z Euro brings the vorticity just north of Lake Okeechobee before reforming something off the east coast of cape Canaveral. so Rainfall is looking more a more likely over florida this weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

IMHO the center may reform under the convection.
Visible Satellite is showing weak feeder bands into the convection.
They are over the Gulf Stream.
Water Vapor Satellite is showing a moisture feed over the feeder bands.
This in indicative of Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange (WISHE) occurring.
Mid-level dry air may not be a big factor here after all.
If the low-level vort picks up angular momentum, I expect WISHE to increase and 98L could ramp up relatively quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/Vw6wiEZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/jzOzWAs.png

yeppers. mentioned it earlier that on radar you can see where a possible reformation might occur. though since then the convection as migrated a little. so we will have to see what happens.

[SouthDadeFish]

Many surface stations in S FL are reporting weak N winds, which is not the usual direction for late August lol. This is a sign of a potentially closed surface circulation just off the coast. Not too far from a TC right now IMO. We shall see if convection persists. Regardless of classification, the impacts will be the same: heavy rains with the potential for flooding. Be careful when driving in the area.

[northjaxpro]

If this thing tracks across SFL and comes back out into the atlantic there could be some serious rainfall down here. Don't need a strong system to cause problems.

https://i.imgur.com/JMZyLhZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/gfGRau9.png

Yeah, rainfall should still be a good amount.

the deep layer bam is interesting. a little outside of its latitude. but the gfs has had similar runs previously. It is moves slowly, constantly fighting the competing steering, then all the models show the ridging building back in about 3 to 4 days. something to keep an eye on.

This is something I was going to post about yesterday in the Global Models thread about this possibility, which actually was shown in long range guidance past 10 days.

It is a good mention here SouthDade and after this weekend, I am going to be paying attention to the models to see if strong ridging indeed builds back north of what becomes of 98L/future Dorian.

[Aric Dunn]

Low level cloud deck and convection on the south side is showing some moisture influx. should start to see a good convective burst right over the center soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Its like 1995s Tropical Storm Jerry all over again lol. just the upper trough then was a little more negatively tilted and it went NW through the state.

[GCANE]

More intense feeder band forming along the east side of the keys into the circulation indicated by radar which is just offshore slightly SE of Miami.
Also, convection wrapping in from the north into the NW side of the circulation.
May see this ramp up just offshore of Miami.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6294.8369140625&y=5768.8974609375

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan up on Slider.
Sector: Mesoscale 2

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 000&y=1000