ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Frank P]

Legacy 951 mb h126, slowing down? Off the coast of SE FL

[SoupBone]

I'm trying to recall, but doesn't the GFS historically underestimate ridging, while the Euro overestimates them?

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow..Legacy is @ 951mb @ hour 126

[sma10]

Thru 126, Legacy significantly stronger and significantly SE of previous runs

[beachman80]

This is all assuming this thing hangs on. TWC meteorologist seems to think this thing may get killed here in the next 48 hours. Says there’s a 50/50 chance it will get ripped apart my wind shear.

[SouthFLTropics]

Forward Speed...It means everything. GFS is quite a bit faster with Dorian than Legacy is.

[Aric Dunn]

legacy initialized in the correct location. at least better than the GFS>

GFS did not.

[catskillfire51]

South Carolina might be in play, looks to be moving north off shore of Georgia on GFS

[jlauderdal]

The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.

they are modeling the ridge a little differently but the idea is the same..a turn to the west, will have to see if the models settle down a bit on the ridging tomorrow but its really looking like something north of palm beach and south of jax and the gulf is definitely in play..south floridans dont think you are out of it, these models don't handle really stout ridges well and once a system starts turning west anything is possible including wsw,,, they will get out and sample the whole area in the SW Atlantic and get a handle on how much ridge is actually there, there are going to be heavy air miles the next few days doing drops

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Impressive on IR too.

[SFLcane]

One things that sure is so far the 18z guidance is really blowing things up.

[storm4u]

JMA hits Southern NewEngland

[jlauderdal]

18z may approach Major status on this run.

you better hope that gfs legacy is a legacy for a reason...949 and intensifying coming at you

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.

they are modeling the ridge a little differently but the idea is the same..a turn to the west, will have to see if the models settle down a bit on the ridging tomorrow but its really looking like something north of palm beach and south of jax and the gulf is definitely in play..south floridans dont think you are out of it, these models don't handle really stout ridges well and once a system starts turning west anything is possible including wsw,,, they will get out and sample the whole area in the SW Atlantic and get a handle on how much ridge is actually there, there are going to be heavy air miles the next few days doing drops

There is no doubt there is going to be lots of air time over the next 3 to 4 days. The hunters will drop enough dropsondes that you'll probably be able to walk from Lauderdale to Bimini and then on to the Southeast Bahamas without getting your feet wet.

[ronjon]

500 mb SW Atlantic ridging much weaker on 18z GFS. If this trend holds, Dorian will be a US east coast threat. Big change in synoptics.

[catskillfire51]

And Legacy down to 927

[p1nheadlarry]

The GFS is madness. It's like spinning a wheel.

[jlauderdal]

JMA hits Southern NewEngland

that would be a major win to sniff out an epic breakdown of high pressure

[Highteeld]

Oh how much have we all missed the hyper aggressive legacy gfs XD

[jfk08c]

Legacy gonna legacy