ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1761 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:01 am

Looking at the visible sat, I would not be surprised if an eye tries to pop out in the next several hours.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1762 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:05 am

hurricaneCW wrote:
NDG wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.


Yep, is has nothing to do with the long term track, good example look at the UKMET and ICON models which not been left biased at all yet they continue to be on the left side of the tracks on the long term.


It's going to be harder to go far west even with the pivot if the storm is further N/E to start. Also the ridge may only extend to 75-77W with a hard edge on it which could lead it to slow down and curve just offshore like the GFS showed.

Erin's MLC is also amplifying the weakness.

If the ridge ends up being stronger then yes this will probably impact Florida.

MLC is actually amplifying the Ridge.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1763 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:10 am

Drawing a straight line from the two recon fixes and assuming it does not change. It would barely skirt st croix and stay well east of PR to have zero land issues.
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1764 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:10 am

I spoke to a Pro Met who's a friend of mine for many years, and the consensus this morning is Dorian is not as organized as it appears on satellite and is further north and east than the earlier center estimate.

From my observtion Dorian is not presenting well on the SJU radar either, and very important too is the fact that the center pressure has not fallen.

It seems what will be a big factor is the strong trough moving quickly east from the plains and is forecast to pick up Erin.

Frank

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1765 Postby wx98 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:11 am

Despite the fact of it looking a lot better, we’re still not getting big pressure falls, holding around 1002 with 60-65 mph winds according to recon
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2125
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1766 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:17 am

wx98 wrote:Despite the fact of it looking a lot better, we’re still not getting big pressure falls, holding around 1002 with 60-65 mph winds according to recon

Probably needs to sort out its structure before it can really deepen.
2 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4235
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1767 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:20 am

Here's Mark Sudduth's take. Not a meteorologist (as he often reminds his viewers), but his videos are always very informative.

(He's also a S2K member :P )

The video was posted yesterday evening.
Last edited by abajan on Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
6 likes   

FrontRunner
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 62
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:01 pm
Location: Westchester, NY

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1768 Postby FrontRunner » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:23 am

Frank2 wrote:I spoke to a Pro Met who's a friend of mine for many years, and the consensus this morning is Dorian is not as organized as it appears on satellite and is further north and east than the earlier center estimate.



I dunno, to me the satellite presentation looks like a strong tropical storm, and recon seems to confirm that it's a strong tropical storm (i.e. 55-60 knots). Seems pretty consistent. I agree that for much of yesterday there was a bigger disconnect. And it's much better than late Monday (?) when the first recon passes revealed a very shaky circulation despite a decent satellite appearance.
1 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1769 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:28 am

abajan wrote:Here's Mark Sudduth's take. Not a meteorologist (as he often reminds his viewers), but his videos are always very informative.

(He's also a S2K member, :P )

The video was posted yesterday evening.


Mark Sudduth is currently "chasing" the storm, live from Puerto Rico on his YouTube channel.

(I say chase in quotes because he's on an island and the storm's not quite there yet)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2REu_lJDOo
2 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10156
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1770 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:30 am

I believe the more left Dorian goes the faster he reaches the Florida coast... So if NHC makes south shifts the landfall timing will decrease... I think... :D
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1771 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:31 am

Dry air continues to hinder strengthening, probably will keep him down until he gets into Bahamas.
2 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1772 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:34 am

AJC3 mentioned in the models thread a neat little insight: If a NWS Weather Forecast Office designates "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Possible/Expected" in your local forecast, the forecasters are going off the Wind Speed Probability forecasts set out by the NHC. I never knew they used that.

With that being said,

Image
"Hurricane Conditions Possible"
3 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1773 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:36 am

The talk of it not being well organized is obviously not true. One only needs to looks at recon data to see we have a core of winds and a 75 eyewall. Sat presentation is lacking currently but that is often the case during this phase.

Its is slowly deepening and now not much in its way to slownit down..
6 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1774 Postby sponger » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:38 am

Really? May not even clip PR? Bad news. I am not buying the recurve scenario as the high looks like it will fill in strong. I am thinking Jeanne esq hit on South Central Florida. Unless the shear weakens early ahead of it than SFL is in trouble.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11503
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1775 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:40 am

46 mm/hr rain rate
1001.6 mb
2 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1776 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:41 am

Aric Dunn wrote:The talk of it not being well organized is obviously not true. One only needs to looks at recon data to see we have a core of winds and a 75 eyewall. Sat presentation is lacking currently but that is often the case during this phase.

Its is slowly deepening and now not much in its way to slownit down..


Yep. It's looked as good as it's ever looked. Radar presentation and recon confirm that.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1777 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:41 am

:uarrow: Pressure is slowly falling with the inner core.
2 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1778 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:42 am

It's really too bad Weather Underground is nothing more than a pile of non working features now, makes getting radar images a lot harder.

Image
7 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

plasticup

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1779 Postby plasticup » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:43 am

sponger wrote:Really? May not even clip PR? Bad news. I am not buying the recurve scenario as the high looks like it will fill in strong. I am thinking Jeanne esq hit on South Central Florida. Unless the shear weakens early ahead of it than SFL is in trouble.

Well you can't buy it, because no one is even selling that scenario anymore. The sounding data from the ridge yesterday put the final nail in that coffin: ridge is here to stay.
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1780 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:43 am

hurricaneCW wrote:
NDG wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.


Yep, is has nothing to do with the long term track, good example look at the UKMET and ICON models which not been left biased at all yet they continue to be on the left side of the tracks on the long term.


It's going to be harder to go far west even with the pivot if the storm is further N/E to start. Also the ridge may only extend to 75-77W with a hard edge on it which could lead it to slow down and curve just offshore like the GFS showed.

Erin's MLC is also amplifying the weakness.

If the ridge ends up being stronger then yes this will probably impact Florida.


Erin's MLC decoupled a couple of days ago and it continues to move SSW towards Cuba out of the way for the Bermuda ridge to move back in, which Euro and GFS ensembles show it to build to the north of Dorian strong enough to force it to take the WNW track once again.
1 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests