ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking at the visible sat, I would not be surprised if an eye tries to pop out in the next several hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hurricaneCW wrote:NDG wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.
Yep, is has nothing to do with the long term track, good example look at the UKMET and ICON models which not been left biased at all yet they continue to be on the left side of the tracks on the long term.
It's going to be harder to go far west even with the pivot if the storm is further N/E to start. Also the ridge may only extend to 75-77W with a hard edge on it which could lead it to slow down and curve just offshore like the GFS showed.
Erin's MLC is also amplifying the weakness.
If the ridge ends up being stronger then yes this will probably impact Florida.
MLC is actually amplifying the Ridge.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Drawing a straight line from the two recon fixes and assuming it does not change. It would barely skirt st croix and stay well east of PR to have zero land issues.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I spoke to a Pro Met who's a friend of mine for many years, and the consensus this morning is Dorian is not as organized as it appears on satellite and is further north and east than the earlier center estimate.
From my observtion Dorian is not presenting well on the SJU radar either, and very important too is the fact that the center pressure has not fallen.
It seems what will be a big factor is the strong trough moving quickly east from the plains and is forecast to pick up Erin.
Frank
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From my observtion Dorian is not presenting well on the SJU radar either, and very important too is the fact that the center pressure has not fallen.
It seems what will be a big factor is the strong trough moving quickly east from the plains and is forecast to pick up Erin.
Frank
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Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Despite the fact of it looking a lot better, we’re still not getting big pressure falls, holding around 1002 with 60-65 mph winds according to recon
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wx98 wrote:Despite the fact of it looking a lot better, we’re still not getting big pressure falls, holding around 1002 with 60-65 mph winds according to recon
Probably needs to sort out its structure before it can really deepen.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Here's Mark Sudduth's take. Not a meteorologist (as he often reminds his viewers), but his videos are always very informative.
(He's also a S2K member
)
The video was posted yesterday evening.
(He's also a S2K member

The video was posted yesterday evening.
Last edited by abajan on Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Frank2 wrote:I spoke to a Pro Met who's a friend of mine for many years, and the consensus this morning is Dorian is not as organized as it appears on satellite and is further north and east than the earlier center estimate.
I dunno, to me the satellite presentation looks like a strong tropical storm, and recon seems to confirm that it's a strong tropical storm (i.e. 55-60 knots). Seems pretty consistent. I agree that for much of yesterday there was a bigger disconnect. And it's much better than late Monday (?) when the first recon passes revealed a very shaky circulation despite a decent satellite appearance.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
abajan wrote:Here's Mark Sudduth's take. Not a meteorologist (as he often reminds his viewers), but his videos are always very informative.
(He's also a S2K member,)
The video was posted yesterday evening.
Mark Sudduth is currently "chasing" the storm, live from Puerto Rico on his YouTube channel.
(I say chase in quotes because he's on an island and the storm's not quite there yet)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2REu_lJDOo
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I believe the more left Dorian goes the faster he reaches the Florida coast... So if NHC makes south shifts the landfall timing will decrease... I think... 

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Dry air continues to hinder strengthening, probably will keep him down until he gets into Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AJC3 mentioned in the models thread a neat little insight: If a NWS Weather Forecast Office designates "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Possible/Expected" in your local forecast, the forecasters are going off the Wind Speed Probability forecasts set out by the NHC. I never knew they used that.
With that being said,

"Hurricane Conditions Possible"
With that being said,

"Hurricane Conditions Possible"
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The talk of it not being well organized is obviously not true. One only needs to looks at recon data to see we have a core of winds and a 75 eyewall. Sat presentation is lacking currently but that is often the case during this phase.
Its is slowly deepening and now not much in its way to slownit down..
Its is slowly deepening and now not much in its way to slownit down..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Really? May not even clip PR? Bad news. I am not buying the recurve scenario as the high looks like it will fill in strong. I am thinking Jeanne esq hit on South Central Florida. Unless the shear weakens early ahead of it than SFL is in trouble.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:The talk of it not being well organized is obviously not true. One only needs to looks at recon data to see we have a core of winds and a 75 eyewall. Sat presentation is lacking currently but that is often the case during this phase.
Its is slowly deepening and now not much in its way to slownit down..
Yep. It's looked as good as it's ever looked. Radar presentation and recon confirm that.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's really too bad Weather Underground is nothing more than a pile of non working features now, makes getting radar images a lot harder.


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
sponger wrote:Really? May not even clip PR? Bad news. I am not buying the recurve scenario as the high looks like it will fill in strong. I am thinking Jeanne esq hit on South Central Florida. Unless the shear weakens early ahead of it than SFL is in trouble.
Well you can't buy it, because no one is even selling that scenario anymore. The sounding data from the ridge yesterday put the final nail in that coffin: ridge is here to stay.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hurricaneCW wrote:NDG wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Not really. Being more north short term will not shift the track north at all in this setup. If anything, it will lead to south shifts.
Yep, is has nothing to do with the long term track, good example look at the UKMET and ICON models which not been left biased at all yet they continue to be on the left side of the tracks on the long term.
It's going to be harder to go far west even with the pivot if the storm is further N/E to start. Also the ridge may only extend to 75-77W with a hard edge on it which could lead it to slow down and curve just offshore like the GFS showed.
Erin's MLC is also amplifying the weakness.
If the ridge ends up being stronger then yes this will probably impact Florida.
Erin's MLC decoupled a couple of days ago and it continues to move SSW towards Cuba out of the way for the Bermuda ridge to move back in, which Euro and GFS ensembles show it to build to the north of Dorian strong enough to force it to take the WNW track once again.
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