ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1981 Postby HDGator » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:27 pm

Highteeld wrote:231 feet up, but still

https://i.imgur.com/5TXorH8.png


:eek:
Wow, that's quite a succession of gusts over 90. Dorian is ramping up.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1982 Postby StormLogic » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:27 pm

anyone thinking what im thinking???
Florida Keys Labor Day Hurricane 1935 comes to mind

found some more going through bahamas as well.

Donna 1960
Hurricane Andrew 1992
Hurricane Frances 2004
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Hurricane Rita 2005
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1983 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:28 pm

No more recon..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1984 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:29 pm

HDGator wrote:
Highteeld wrote:231 feet up, but still

https://i.imgur.com/5TXorH8.png


:eek:
Wow, that's quite a succession of gusts over 90. Dorian is ramping up.

Still increasing. Likely right in the eyewall now
Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1985 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:30 pm

Imagine for people who haven't checked the weather for about a day or so, this has to be a shock. Looks like it'll miss any sort of land disruption so exiting the Caribbean intact.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1986 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:30 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1987 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:32 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1988 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...



Hundred+ miles to the W and he woulda been a gooner via the shredder
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1989 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...


No three day weekend for ya. Sorry man.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1990 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:33 pm

Highteeld wrote:
HDGator wrote:
Highteeld wrote:231 feet up, but still

https://i.imgur.com/5TXorH8.png


:eek:
Wow, that's quite a succession of gusts over 90. Dorian is ramping up.

Still increasing. Likely right in the eyewall now
https://i.imgur.com/kqx2nzp.png


The reduction from that is more than enough for an upgrade.

Reduction from 200 feel is only a few percent.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1991 Postby mpic » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:33 pm

I can't find the post, but someone was asking about a low system developing in the GOM and what impact it would be on Dorian. This might be what he/she saw and was talking about. https://www.facebook.com/417996808221873/posts/2527341033954096/
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Alicia, Rita, Ike, Harvey and Beryl...moved to Splendora lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1992 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...


Dorian: I'm not dead!
NHC: 'Ere. He says he's not dead!
The Internet: Yes, he is.
Dorian: I'm not!
NHC: He isn't?
The Internet: Well, he will be soon. He's very ill.
Dorian: I'm getting better!
The Internet: No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in a moment.

There's a Monty Python scene for any and every moment.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1993 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...


Only in hand grenades and horseshoes buddy... :D
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1994 Postby KC7NEC » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:34 pm

Well, we have a 100-page storm. Currently, it looks like Dorian is starting a RI process. The storm has been able to make all the right marks to become a bigger deal then was first expected. Avoided most of the mountainous areas so far, and is headed to more favorable conditions. NHC is currently looking at Major Hurricane at landfall in Florida though the cone is still not very tight at this point. An interesting thing to watch today through tomorrow is how much intensification happens and what impacts in a track that will have. A stronger storm will tend to move more west-south which in this case would be into even more favorable waters. Quite a few other things can still affect this storm but those in Florida should be taking this seriously and preparing now.


// Opinions are my own, I am not a Meteorologist. Consult the NHC or Local NWS and Emergency Management for current information in your area. //
Last edited by KC7NEC on Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1995 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:34 pm

appx time synched radar + obs
Image
Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1996 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:34 pm

NOAA planes

Tropical Nick Underwood
@TheAstroNick
·
5m
We start 24-hour operations today. Once we land back in Lakeland, FL, a second set of crews will be getting ready to take the aircraft back out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1997 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...

I'm not a PM but I did feel pessimistic about this storm when it first came alive.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1998 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:And to think that some people were still suggesting dissipation yesterday...


Those IDIOTS! Well, it did nearly fall apart...



Hundred+ miles to the W and he woulda been a gooner via the shredder
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1999 Postby ColdFusion » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:37 pm

Any indication whether wind shear could play spoiler (or savoir) with this one over the next few days?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2000 Postby plasticup » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
HDGator wrote:
:eek:
Wow, that's quite a succession of gusts over 90. Dorian is ramping up.

Still increasing. Likely right in the eyewall now
https://i.imgur.com/kqx2nzp.png


The reduction from that is more than enough for an upgrade.

Reduction from 200 feel is only a few percent.


Over sea, yes, but up a hillside don't you get serious acceleration?
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