ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

So potentially a major hurricane for south/central Florida and then the gulf coast. Yikes

[Highteeld]

Legit eye forming. Hats off to the SHIPS RI that indicated this forming

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Light shear beginning to impact Dorian's west quad. You can tell by the lack of cirrus outflow on that part of the storm. However, Dorian has already established a strong inner core -- might be enough to prohibit outright RI, but gradual intensification is still likely.

[gatorcane]

This is about as close to an Andrew-like scenario/setup for South Florida that I have seen in a long time. Hopefully it ends up nothing like that but yikes. We have had a lot of scares here in a South Florida through the years, hopefully this is just another one of those.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely deepening

[BYG Jacob]

Light shear beginning to impact Dorian's west quad. You can tell by the lack of cirrus outflow on that part of the storm. However, Dorian has already established a strong inner core -- might be enough to prohibit outright RI, but gradual intensification is still likely.

https://i.imgur.com/EF4lqv3.jpg

I don’t know what you are looking at there, outflow looks good in all quadrants

[eastcoastFL]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

Awesome graphic. They’ve had a very hard time getting a handle on this one . I’ve never seen so many discussions that say the confidence is very low.

[xironman]

Definitely deepening

How soon before the chase?

[Nimbus]

Surprised nobody's seemed to notice the 5PM advisory has been out for about ten minutes, it's now being taken across Vero, hooking up with I-4 in the central part of the State.

Here in Tampa our probabilities went up from 36/11/5 to 62/31/17 in the space of one advisory interval.

Has Tampa ever been hit by a major coming from East to West like this?

Not something that held as a 3 or better coming "backdoor" across the state. In 04, Frances and Jeanne were strong TSs when they made it here, but if Dorian hits as a 4 or 5 on the east coast, it could be a 1 or a 2 over here.

The HWRF showed a Cat 2 or 3 Dorian crossing and exiting just north of Tampa bay. Pressure was 960 once it got back out over the gulf and Clearwater beach was getting Cat 1 winds.

[jlauderdal]

This is about as close to an Andrew-like scenario/setup for South Florida that I have seen in a long time. Hopefully it ends up nothing like that but yikes. We have had a lot of scares here in a South Florida through the years, hopefully this is just another one of those.

we were in the bullseye of irma two seasons ago, first time i was ever concerned i was going to lose my roof from a hurricane if we took a direct hit, florida hous built in 1966 with hurricane straps so not easy to take these roofs off...it went south and west..we are in a similar situation again...whoever gets the core might have once in a lifetime hurricane experience..south floridans, wilma and Katrina were cat 1's through here so dont think this is similar...this an ideal setup for a major hurricane, it really doesnt get much better in this part of the basin

[jdtobin]

My sister is currently at UMiami in Coral Gables, many of the parents are nervous and flying their kids home. I think with the SFL building codes that a college campus may be a decent location to ride out a hurricane, especially since they will have priority in getting power restored and getting resources. Either way we shall see if the trend south continues, as Dorian seems pretty angry right now...

UM is far enough away from the ocean (just west of US1), and the buildings are all pretty sturdy. I don't think there would be much of a problem on campus; it would take a real monster of a storm hitting directly on site to cause a mandatory evacuation at UM. Not to say it's impossible, but it would be very unlikely.

[jlauderdal]

My sister is currently at UMiami in Coral Gables, many of the parents are nervous and flying their kids home. I think with the SFL building codes that a college campus may be a decent location to ride out a hurricane, especially since they will have priority in getting power restored and getting resources. Either way we shall see if the trend south continues, as Dorian seems pretty angry right now...

UM is far enough away from the ocean (just west of US1), and the buildings are all pretty sturdy. I don't think there would be much of a problem on campus; it would take a real monster of a storm hitting directly on site to cause a mandatory evacuation at UM. Not to say it's impossible, but it would be very unlikely.

very sturdy there but surge and power would be a problem and they would be fine during the storm, the problem is after the storm, food, water, etc...its labor day weekend, my kid would be on the first flight out of there tomorrow.

[Highteeld]

Radar returns and sample velocities are increasing

[jdtobin]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

That's a really interesting series, thanks for putting that together. That jump to the north really threw the projections for a loop.

BTW - where did you go to get those images?

[jlauderdal]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

Awesome graphic. They’ve had a very hard time getting a handle on this one . I’ve never seen so many discussions that say confidence is very low.

confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations

[Ubuntwo]

993.1mb extrap on pass

[supercane4867]

Maybe slightly stronger. Could see 75kt at 8PM

[hohnywx]

993.1mb extrap on pass

Definitely continuing to strengthen.

[xironman]

993.1mb extrap on pass

Saw that, closing in on RI. I would expect the winds to pick up soon.

[1900hurricane]

That's a little more typical pressure I'd expect with an entry level hurricane, close to the KZC estimate for 18Z.