ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

I hope you’re safe. According to the current track you should be fine if it verifies. Most important I hope you don’t lose power. That’s the main reason I’m fleeing. I’ll be a refugee in Denver for a week. My wife’s birthday is next week so we will make a vacation out of it and I’m sure my kids school will be closed anyway.

Generator, room ac, and 50 gallons of gas, enough to go at least 5 days, powers the fridge too...i learned my lesson after wilma

[GlennOBX]

Can you elaborate ? You don’t believe that it will turn left towards Florida? It doesn’t have anywhere else to go. There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of it that will force it left. The stronger the ridge becomes the further it will get pushed west. That’s about the only thing everyone agrees on

I'm VERY far from being an expert, and I'm not sure why, but I get the feeling it isn't going where the models are predicting. I don't have a specific alternate landfall to suggest, and I know I have a much more than 99% chance of being wrong. I just have this weird idea that the left turn won't be as pronounced, or won't be there at all.

I don't know why I do. I just do.

Well contrary to your belief, most meteorological and model guidance suggests the left turn...

If I were in FL right now, I'd be prepping to leave, or shelter in place, if I thought I could do that. Much more likely the former than the latter for me. I've lived on the Outer Banks since January of 99, and have only evacuated once, for Irene, IIRC. I'm not saying my thinking is enough for anyone to act on. Very far from it. It's just a thought I have that I can't explain.

[1900hurricane]

Based on radar, the eye looks like it's down to around 10 nm. I'm interested to see what diameter they report on the VDM.

[Steve]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

North Carolinians?



Also love seeing Frank2 come out the woodwork for a South FL threat to swat it away.

[Visioen]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

Nope.

[Highteeld]

Dropsonde measured 79 knots in the NE eyewall

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

North Carolinians?



Also love seeing Frank2 come out the woodwork for a South FL threat to swat it away.

Frank is doing lots of wishful thinking. But I don't blame him. I'm guilty of doing that too.......Always hoping for the small 5% chance that the forecasters and models will be wrong.....

[1900hurricane]

Dropsonde measured 79 knots in the NE eyewall

Yep, and even the 0.85 reduction over the lowest 150 m supports 70-75 kt.

[Steve]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

North Carolinians?



Also love seeing Frank2 come out the woodwork for a South FL threat to swat it away.

Frank is doing lots of wishful thinking. But I don't blame him. I'm guilty of doing that too.......Always hoping for the small 5% chance that the forecasters and models will be wrong.....

He always does and finds any reason he can to support the miss. I remember he said he was working down at NHC Coral Gabels for Andrew, so I don’t blame him. I always look forward to his posts when something is heading that way. It’s like a slice of home or apple pie or something.

[SoupBone]

Someone answer me a hypothetical. If this were to head due west toward Texas, the impact would be around the 7th or so, right?

[Michele B]

Man! I'm gone for two hours and we've added twenty pages!!!

Finally, this is a storm we can chew on......

[eastcoastFL]

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

I hope you’re safe. According to the current track you should be fine if it verifies. Most important I hope you don’t lose power. That’s the main reason I’m fleeing. I’ll be a refugee in Denver for a week. My wife’s birthday is next week so we will make a vacation out of it and I’m sure my kids school will be closed anyway.

Generator, room ac, and 50 gallons of gas, enough to go at least 5 days, powers the fridge too...i learned my lesson after wilma

Thats funny. I learned my lesson from Frances and Jeanne. I was ready for Wilma and had generators and everything in place and she did a number on the house so Im glad I was prepared. I bathed in the pool for a week and made soup on the grill lol.

[johngaltfla]

I'll bid we see a 987 tonight. Stabilization and ERC tomorrow, then boom when it gets into the Central Bahamas. Nice job this storm Aric, I've been reading while I've been on the road. This storm has strong potential to be a Cat 4 before landfall.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop down to the mid 970's tonight, and go through a couple EWRC in the next few days and get down to the 920-930 range before landfall. I can definitely see this one getting to Cat 5 (and not just barely).

I agree. While environmental conditions are not perfect, what Dorian has that a lot of other storms don't have is time. With no major inhibitors and several days before landfall, I could easily see this reaching cat 4 strength with cat 5 a possibility too.

The only way I see this reaching Cat 5, just an opinion, is if the last ERC finishes 18-24 hours before landfall in SE Florida. If it hits anywhere between West Palm Beach and Melbourne moving slower WNW, I could see it intensifying into landfall which would be a nightmare scenario. I'll stick with my dartboard strong 4 and hope for the best as conditions from the Central Bahamas into Florida are ideal for RI and expansion of the storm.

[Steve]

Someone answer me a hypothetical. If this were to head due west toward Texas, the impact would be around the 7th or so, right?

North Gulf hit maybe Wed 4th? Maybe 7th or 6th. I don’t see it but if the steering breaks down or that mid level ridge hooks up with high pressure to the west, obviously we know less.

[ozonepete]

Still does not seem to be following the forecast track. Looks to be moving more NNW than NW. While the usual forecasts do well with track and have trouble with intensity, this one has been difficult on both. Even now, as the intensity forecasts are consolidating and starting to work out better, this one has been a real problem with track and still is.

Hey Ozonepete!! Yeah, GFS has been a.amazingly consistent so far in being accurate in being to the right of ithe projected forecast track points. It is making.me wonder jut a bit if the GFS could be onto something about its track reasoning in the next 4-5 days. Pete you share my thoughts on this?

Hey Jax! What the GFS is onto, or rather has, is a series of upgrades over the last couple of years that has made it much better at TC forecasting in tricky environments. It now is often on a par with or exceeds the euro in day 4 or 5. In a case like this the 4 and 5 day are so hard because it is really difficult to forecast how strong that STR will be and how it will be oriented. This TC has continuously been forecast too far west and south, and that means the models have not had a handle on how strong or shaped the STR to the north has been. It is also still very dificult to get ridge strength more than 3 days out unless we've had a persistence pattern; that persistent Atlantic ridge pattern broke about 5 days ago.That makes me doubt that the models are suddenly going to get a better handle on that ridge now, especially when the GFS and euro are both struggling with it on the extended forecasts. Are the models insisting that the ridge that's been there most of the summer will build back in due to persistence bias? Let's see what they say tomorow.
Anyway, it's turning out to be a classic case where you always prepare as if the 5 day forecast were correct but don't believe any forecast beyond the 3rd day. I would watch carefully from
Miami to North Carolina, but especially from Daytona to Charleston. That's my 2 cents.

[SoupBone]

Someone answer me a hypothetical. If this were to head due west toward Texas, the impact would be around the 7th or so, right?

North Gulf hit maybe Wed 5th? Maybe 7th or 8th. I don’t see it but if the steering breaks down or that mid level ridge hooks up with high pressure to the west, obviously we know less.

Yeah I don't think it will make it this far west with our Death Ridge firmly giving us this brutal heat, but to traverse the GoM, I was thinking the 7th.

[johngaltfla]

I went to sleep in a parking lot garage in Panama City with Michael approaching.

Not sure of the exact timeline but I think it was Cat 2-3 at midnight when I closed my eyes.

At 5 am it was Cat 4 and intensifying. No one saw that coming. Final report it was a Cat 5 at landfall. Watching 185 mph winds up close can't be described.

The point is prepare for the worst. In the end no one really knows.

Chuck

Good call Rail and yeah, the conditions around Florida are almost always perfect for storms to jump from Cat 2 to Cat 4 or 5 in very short order this time of year. Sadly most people don't pay attention to the danger these storms present in so many cases.

[Aric Dunn]

Still does not seem to be following the forecast track. Looks to be moving more NNW than NW. While the usual forecasts do well with track and have trouble with intensity, this one has been difficult on both. Even now, as the intensity forecasts are consolidating and starting to work out better, this one has been a real problem with track and still is.

Hey Ozonepete!! Yeah, GFS has been a.amazingly consistent so far in being accurate in being to the right of ithe projected forecast track points. It is making.me wonder jut a bit if the GFS could be onto something about its track reasoning in the next 4-5 days. Pete you share my thoughts on this?

Hey Jax! What the GFS is onto, or rather has, is a series of upgrades over the last couple of years that has made it much better at TC forecasting in tricky environments. It now is often on a par with or exceeds the euro in day 4 or 5. In a case like this the 4 and 5 day are so hard because it is really difficult to forecast how strong that STR will be and how it will be oriented. This TC has continuously been forecast too far west and south, and that means the models have not had a handle on how strong or shaped the STR to the north has been. It is also still very dificult to get ridge strength more than 3 days out unless we've had a persistence pattern; that persistent Atlantic ridge pattern broke about 5 days ago.That makes me doubt that the models are suddenly going to get a better handle on that ridge now, especially when the GFS and euro are both struggling with it on the extended forecasts. Are the models insisting that the ridge that's been there most of the summer will build back in due to persistence bias? Let's see what they say tomorow.
Anyway, it's turning out to be a classic case where you always prepare as if the 5 day forecast were correct but don't believe any forecast beyond the 3rd day. I would watch carefully from
Miami to North Carolina, but especially from Daytona to Charleston. That's my 2 cents.

well we are down to 72 hours come tomorrow morning.

[Highteeld]

SHIPS thinks 21% chance of a borderline cat 5 in 3 days

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think there is really any other way to put this: Dorian's recent intensification is very concerning. This makes it that much more likely Dorian will be a very powerful hurricane by the time it approaches the Bahamas and SE US. Even if Dorian begins to undergo some ERCs, the storm will only become more broad and dangerous.

I'm curious to see how a stronger storm earlier on impacts the model runs. For what it's worth, the 18Z HWRF forecast this apparent RI period. Hopefully the cat-5 part of that forecast doesn't verify...