ATL: DORIAN - Models

[caneseddy]

ICON starts to dip WSW towards Broward County

[beachman80]

ICON takes a WSW dip at the end and ends up off of Miami at 120 hours

Looks to me like it hit the brakes and stopped. Stalling out.

[Frank2]

The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty.

That from the NHC TCD - if they hedged any further I'd need a pair of clippers. Apparent the forecaster is saying he isn't as sure of the turn as the models. Last night someone (I forget) did mention the ridge might be a bit further east than forecast. That would make a world of difference and perhaps the senior forecaster has noticed this possibility...

As Jim Cantore said earlier today, Dorian has been on the right side of the cone during it's life cycle...

[Steve]

ICON takes a WSW dip at the end and ends up off of Miami at 120 hours

Looks to me like it hit the brakes and stopped. Stalling out.

So did the model run :/

Looks like a stall but it wants to move to South Florida - maybe a loop or something coming once the building ridge moves it along?

[MrJames]

GFS is running. Slightly east at 30hrs.

[birddogsc]

So the ICON takes it in to Palm/Broward(?) then right up the peninsula? Huh?

[AdamFirst]

ICON is missing frames on Tropical Tidbits but its landfalling Dorian in Palm Beach County, on Tuesday, on a NW heading up the eastern side of the state.

[STRiZZY]

ICON takes a WSW dip at the end and ends up off of Miami at 120 hours

Looks to me like it hit the brakes and stopped. Stalling out.

So did the model run :/

Looks like a stall but it wants to move to South Florida - maybe a loop or something coming once the building ridge moves it along?

Looks to ride up the spine of Florida

[Steve]

ICON has gone bonkers. Haha. The stall looks to be avoidance of some of the northern Bahamian Kingdom (or taking time to hit them all), then it hits Broward/PB County and runs north through Florida. That's an interesting twist for a lower tier model.

[stormlover2013]

Icon rides it up in the middle of the state of Florida

Still lots of time long range not short term, models having trouble with the upper level pattern

[sma10]

ICON has gone bonkers. Haha. The stall looks to be avoidance of some of the northern Bahamian Kingdom (or taking time to hit them all), then it hits Broward/PB County and runs north through Florida. That's an interesting twist for a lower tier model.

ICON carves Florida in half. This would be a track for the ages

[tgenius]

Keep in mind we are missing 123-138 so it may well go further south then the jump after it’s moved. But that’s a lot of hours getting pounded by the storm and surge.

[sma10]

Keep in mind we are missing 123-138 so it may well go further south then the jump after it’s moved. But that’s a lot of hours getting pounded by the storm and surge.

Yes, I sorta wonder what happens in those 18 hours

[Evil Jeremy]

Through 60 hours, GFS is in the exact same spot as the 18z run.

[otowntiger]

ICON is missing frames on Tropical Tidbits but its landfalling Dorian in Palm Beach County, on Tuesday, on a NW heading up the eastern side of the state.

Looks weaker, unless I’m not recalling its previous forecast intensity correctly.

[STRiZZY]

GFS 60H

Same location approx, 2mb higher.

[birddogsc]

GFS @ 72 shows a huge ridge to the north.

[STRiZZY]

GFS initialized 15MB too high from the get go btw.

[LarryWx]

0Z gfs headed in direction of N FL

[lsuhurricane]

GFS @ 72 shows a huge ridge to the north.

Ridding is weaker overall on this run though. It will move further to the north