ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FYI, HWRF/HMON both showed this storm at ~973mb about this time.

[wx98]

I wonder if winds will follow with the pressure drop, even with the shear?

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

They’re already coming up, so I’d say yes

[CrazyC83]

Another pass with the AF plane found flagged SFMR winds of 88 kt. The flight level winds are still in the mid-80s. That said, the flagging might be questionable - it's not like we are in shallow water...

[Tailspin]

https://postimg.cc/dh20CTdD

[tropicwatch]

Another pass with the AF plane found flagged SFMR winds of 88 kt. The flight level winds are still in the mid-80s. That said, the flagging might be questionable - it's not like we are in shallow water...

80Kts at the surface? That would be one hell of an increase.

[Kingarabian]

Update: NOAA plane extrapolated 973 mb pressure and supports an 80 kt intensity.

So it's weakening, since the wind speed was previously 85? I guess that's good news although it has several days of a good environment ahead of it.

80 kt = 90 mph. That would be a slight wind increase, but a big pressure decrease.

Fortunately the models don't show very high winds despite the low pressure when it makes landfall. High resolution Euro has 80kt 10m winds while the GFS is near 92-95kts. This is sort of reflected on this pass. Maybe 1900Hurricane can explain further.

Disclaimer: The Euro and GFS are probably too low on the wind speed.

[Siker]

So it's weakening, since the wind speed was previously 85? I guess that's good news although it has several days of a good environment ahead of it.

80 kt = 90 mph. That would be a slight wind increase, but a big pressure decrease.

Fortunately the models don't show very high winds despite the low pressure when it makes landfall. High resolution Euro has 80kt 10m winds while the GFS is near 92-95kts. This is sort of reflected on this pass. Maybe 1900Hurricane can explain further.

I have never seen a modeled monster where the global models depicted realistically high winds to go along with it. Central pressure is also a little iffy on them but less far off from reality. Gust products are a little better.

[ozonepete]

Let's see how Dorian evolves with recon inside there, and how it deals with this shear.

Yes but it's notable that the shear has not reached the very strong and symmetric inner core so far. Since the shear area is pretty small in coverage it's possible it won't have much effect after all.

[Highteeld]

80 kt = 90 mph. That would be a slight wind increase, but a big pressure decrease.

Fortunately the models don't show very high winds despite the low pressure when it makes landfall. High resolution Euro has 80kt 10m winds while the GFS is near 92-95kts. This is sort of reflected on this pass. Maybe 1900Hurricane can explain further.

I have never seen a modeled monster where the global models depicted realistically high winds to go along with it. Central pressure is also a little iffy on them but less far off from reality. Gust products are a little better.

This. The GFS modeled Irma at 125 knots with 890 surface pressure

[psyclone]

One would think with such a small core we might not have cashed all of our windspeed tickets from that big pressure drop. That's fairly impressive deepening and we might get some more wind response.

[Kingarabian]

80 kt = 90 mph. That would be a slight wind increase, but a big pressure decrease.

Fortunately the models don't show very high winds despite the low pressure when it makes landfall. High resolution Euro has 80kt 10m winds while the GFS is near 92-95kts. This is sort of reflected on this pass. Maybe 1900Hurricane can explain further.

I have never seen a modeled monster where the global models depicted realistically high winds to go along with it. Central pressure is also a little iffy on them but less far off from reality. Gust products are a little better.

Yeah I suppose Barry ended up weak so that's why the GFS and Euro 10m wind forecasts verified.

[hohnywx]

Another pass with the AF plane found flagged SFMR winds of 88 kt. The flight level winds are still in the mid-80s. That said, the flagging might be questionable - it's not like we are in shallow water...

80Kts at the surface? That would be one hell of an increase.

Not really. It’s a 5kt increase

[Kazmit]

I'm surprised it has strengthened despite the dry air/shear issues. Just imagine what will happen once conditions become more favorable.
I think slow but steady intensification will be the trend until tomorrow when it should start to really take off.

[Kingarabian]

We're getting a live view in how that center relocation 2 days ago shifting the track further east, will a big reason why Dorian is going to survive this shear. If the track remained further west, the shear would be directly over the center of the system instead of to the west. And of course avoiding Hispaniola certainly helps.

[brock berlin]

Update: NOAA plane extrapolated 973 mb pressure and supports an 80 kt intensity.

So it's weakening, since the wind speed was previously 85? I guess that's good news although it has several days of a good environment ahead of it.

80 kt = 90 mph. That would be a slight wind increase, but a big pressure decrease.

Oh thank you, got my units confused.

[TheProfessor]

Interesting that one plane found readings closer to 980mb while the other one found it closer to 973mb.

[JtSmarts]

Interesting that one plane found readings closer to 980mb while the other one found it closer to 973mb.

It seems like for as long as I can remember, the NOAA planes have consistently found lower pressures than the Air Force planes.

[SunnyThoughts]

Interesting that one plane found readings closer to 980mb while the other one found it closer to 973mb.

I've noticed many times in past years that the NOAA planes find pressures higher than the AF planes. Not sure why...but I have noticed it quite a few times when they are both in storm at the same time.

[Kazmit]

Interesting that one plane found readings closer to 980mb while the other one found it closer to 973mb.

Either way, that's a pretty significant drop since the last update.

[NDG]

Interesting that one plane found readings closer to 980mb while the other one found it closer to 973mb.

NOAA's recon extrap MSLP are usually not that well calibrated.