ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AdamFirst]

Noticed that the GFS ensembles are pretty much all north of the operational on approach to FL.

This has been said many times...


The gfs ensembles are still on the old processor core.. they will be closer to legacy

Ah, I was not aware. Sorry!

[Bocadude85]

It seems we always get these crazy model swings when the upper air data is first ingested, then as a few more model cycles come in the models settle down and come into agreement, also seems there is always a few cycles of out to sea before they start shifting back west again,Irma,Matthew,Florence are recent examples of this.

[MacTavish]

BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.

Perhaps I was way wrong thinking that this didn't have a chance of curving out to sea........I guess we'll see if other models also start to trend it out to sea over time.....Too early to say

The NAVGEM relocates the polar vortex.
Very suspicious.

LOL what??

[rdcrds]

Yeah I’m lost with these models . Now gfs is south and euro is north , now gfs has it going way west. Now euro does opposite



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[AxaltaRacing24]

Yeah I’m lost with these models . Now gfs is south and euro is north , now gfs has it going way west. Now euro does opposite



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I know we keep saying this daily, but we should begin to know more starting tonight. We will know much more Friday night.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah I’m lost with these models . Now gfs is south and euro is north , now gfs has it going way west. Now euro does opposite

Euro is pretty close to last run


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[will759227]

Yeah I’m lost with these models . Now gfs is south and euro is north , now gfs has it going way west. Now euro does opposite

Euro is pretty close to last run


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euro 18 and 12 both are drastically different than what it was last night at the 00z 00z had it come up the center of the state down from miami

[stormlover2013]

I’m looking at short term forecast not long term.. euro, ukmet, icon, have been pretty consistent short term. Long term meaning 5-6 days anybody guess

[Aric Dunn]

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

[NFLnut]

Yeah I’m lost with these models . Now gfs is south and euro is north , now gfs has it going way west. Now euro does opposite



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I know we keep saying this daily, but we should begin to know more starting tonight. We will know much more Friday night.

True. But I was more "certain" this morning at 0230 after the 00z EURO. I'm beyond confused now. Especially seeing some of these OTS (albeit extreme outlier) trends tonight.

[GeneratorPower]

How about that Jamaican model (HMON). South of FL and obliterates Key West on it’s way to bigger and better things in the GOM.

[STRiZZY]

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

Would an early turn west translate into an increased chance of GOM entry at some point?

[Aric Dunn]

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

Would an early turn west translate into an increased chance of GOM entry at some point?

It would definitely allow the ridging to build in farther south and west. putting some distance between dorian and any phantom shortwave that might swing by.

[otowntiger]

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

So what does that do to the ultimate track, specifically as related to potential landfall? Oops, never mind- just saw your post above.

[La Sirena]

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

Wow, I don’t think anyone saw a turn coming that early....oh wait, we have been on our heels this whole time lol

[Bocadude85]

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

Would an early turn west translate into an increased chance of GOM entry at some point?

I would think yes, since Dorian would get farther west faster before any northward turn commences.

[LarryWx]

Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully the N/East Trend and OTS trend will continue and all models will jump on the OTS bandwagon come tomorrow morning and not just 1 or 2..............

At this point I would put it at 50% chance of it hitting USA and 50% of it going out to sea

[PandaCitrus]

Wouldn't an early turn mean the models are way too north and Dorian might not even hit Florida? It could go through the straits or even hit Cuba?

to further my post earlier. the ULL is starting to shot west while Dorian is just barely starting to turn. the turn is coming very soon. probably overnight... likely quite a bit earlier than the models.

Would an early turn west translate into an increased chance of GOM entry at some point?

[Blown Away]

Anybody remember how accurate the GFS/Euro were with Michael 4 days out? NHC was slightly west of Mexico Beach landfall 4 days out..