ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

The only saving grace for Florida would be a stall offshore that allows the trof to sufficiently open up a weakness to the north. This solution seems less likely at this point. Dorian could also have upwelling issues if it slows down offshore. Again, this isn't being predicted really either. The last silver lining is the relatively small size of the cyclone. Models show growth in size, but let's hope they are overdoing the increase. I don't see many positives, so I'm reaching. The southward trend is alarming for Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Crossing my fingers for you guys.

[Jr0d]

This discussion was almost painful to read, especially the part about nothing that Blake sees from preventing it becoming a Cat 4.

I'm going to have a talk with my parents tomorrow in Cocoa Beach. Their evacuation plan is to ride it out at a friend's house inland in Melbourne. I am not sure if that is safe option right now. Their friend is a former launch director at NASA so I trust his call if he feels his house is safe.

I know of several people who are evacuating to Key West for the storm. While there are a few outliers that take it this far south, I feel like we are in a much better spot down here than the mainland.

Needless to say, I won't be getting much sleep this weekend. At least I am not alone on this forum.

[Hurricaneman]

We won’t know exactly where this will enter Florida but if I were to guess somewhere between West Palm Beach and Daytona

[eastcoastFL]

Its always wobble watching time especially close to look landfall. Did you go to denver?

Just finished putting up shutters. Flight leaves pbi at 6:55am. I should probably sleep soon. I took my dog to my family that lives in boynton so I hope it’s not too bad there. They’re stubborn and never leave...

Safe travels, you should take the dog, boynton is in jeopardy of the core

She’s an older dog and all that time on the plane would mess her up bad. I can’t believe the new track is showing a 140mph cat 4 right into my town. I’m glad I booked that flight.

[brock berlin]

The only saving grace for Florida would be a stall offshore that allows the trof to sufficiently open up a weakness to the north. This solution seems less likely at this point. Dorian could also have upwelling issues if it slows down offshore. Again, this isn't being predicted really either. The last silver lining is the relatively small size of the cyclone. Models show growth in size, but let's hope they are overdoing the increase. I don't see many positives, so I'm reaching. The southward trend is alarming for Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Crossing my fingers for you guys.

I think you are on to something here regarding the stall and upwelling. A lot of the EC ensembles depict this happening. I would say that potential is more than 30-40% at this point.

[TTARider]

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.

I dont mean to be rude, but I dont think you totally understand the impacts here in CFL if the storm even threads the needle of the current path forecasted.. that north curve could make Irma look like an afternoon thunderstorm in cfl.

[CFLHurricane]

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.

Its going to turn, you could get hit by a hurricane

Yeah, but will we really?

Exactly.

[Aric Dunn]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

[Jr0d]

Will they order evacuations? If so, how long can they wait? If it’s less than a couple days out, it’s probably not enough time considering Florida’s population and narrow options for escape. I sympathize with all the scientists and even politicians who have to make the call, this one is a really vexing problem.

Evacuations generally start when a hurricane watch is issued.

[ozonepete]

Not a good trend for S.FL.

https://i.imgur.com/FEuItkA.png

Though on that track south Florida will be on the weaker side.

[Cypresso]

Thank u was hoping the southern drop hasd stopped but after all this the model back and forth no one knows

Seems like more and more is trending South with each run.

And slower each run.

Exactly, not good news at all for those in Florida.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 just played the American and Euro models. The American has it hitting south Florida on Monday night. The Euro has it riding the east coast and hitting the Cape Wednesday.

[catskillfire51]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

[Cypresso]

Not a good trend for S.FL.

https://i.imgur.com/FEuItkA.png

Though on that track south Florida will be on the weaker side.

Imagine the issues with evacuating The Keys however.

[Cypresso]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

Channel 13 here in Houston is saying it is "non-tropical" in nature. Got my attention, however.

[catskillfire51]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

Channel 13 here in Houston is saying it is "non-tropical" in nature. Got my attention, however.

Me as well as some have it off shore Houston but it confuses me how it gets pushed west but Dorian makes the turn

[Cypresso]

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

Channel 13 here in Houston is saying it is "non-tropical" in nature. Got my attention, however.

Me as well as some have it off shore Houston but it confuses me how it gets pushed west but Dorian makes the turn

My mind wonders as well, as to why that low, we are speaking of, does not do a pull west on Dorian.

[Blinhart]

Another shift south in the cone, now landfall around Port St Lucie

.5 and .6 degrees south at 96 and 120 hrs.

They came farther south than i thought they would, this trend needs to stop immediately.

I don't think it makes any difference if it goes North or South as someone would still get hit. If there is any good news, it's if on the outside chance that it ends up in the Gulf, it weakens pretty fast as it moves inland, so IF it ever emerged in the gulf, there will not be much left of it, so no worries about re-development as not much ocean left before it heads North, just lots of rain.

It all depends on where it makes landfall and how strong he is, how fast he is moving. If he makes landfall around Miami-Dade area and is heading WSW he won't be ripped apart as much and will be still be very intact and strong. So there is a lot that can happen that would allow this not to weaken as much. The projected weakening is because they have it going over a lot of land at a very slow speed. But if it stays over the Everglades it won't have nearly that much erosion of power.

[Steve]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

It’s oriented right for it, but I don’t see where Dorian gets the push to keep moving west like that. If there was a building high north and northeast or even east you could see it. But if it slows and say the upper low moves toward the !BoC or say even TX/MX border, I can’t see that weakness resulting in a prolonged western track much beyond the peninsula. I’ve been wrong lots of times to be sure. But it would surprise me hard if Dorian even makes 85W much less anything past that. Guess we will find out.

[Craters]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

No, it's right next to Dorian to its southwest. (Or it was to its southwest the last time I looked.) Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's the main factor controlling the direction of Dorian's current motion.