ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Not a good trend for S.FL.

https://i.imgur.com/FEuItkA.png

Though on that track south Florida will be on the weaker side.

I’ve been thinking about that a bit. In this case would it be better to have it hit to your north since it would put you in the southern half? The current track appears to be Stuart which is where I live. So I’m wondering if people in Port St. Lucie and ft pierce will be worse off in the northern eyewall?

[Blinhart]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

No, it's right next to Dorian to its southwest. (Or it was to its southwest the last time I looked.) Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's the main factor controlling the direction of Dorian's current motion.

I thought it might of been those storms over the Keys right now.

[Steve]

watch that upper low.. where it goes dorian is going to follow ...

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

No, it's right next to Dorian to its southwest. (Or it was to its southwest the last time I looked.) Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's the main factor controlling the direction of Dorian's current motion.

He’s talking about the same low later on.

[norva13x]

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.

I dont mean to be rude, but I dont think you totally understand the impacts here in CFL if the storm even threads the needle of the current path forecasted.. that north curve could make Irma look like an afternoon thunderstorm in cfl.

I know, I just mean it isn't looking as bad. Of course with how things have been going I may wake up to the forecast line right over us again who even knows anymore.

[catskillfire51]

Is that the low off tx/mex that some models show?

No, it's right next to Dorian to its southwest. (Or it was to its southwest the last time I looked.) Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's the main factor controlling the direction of Dorian's current motion.

He’s talking about the same low later on.

Yes, thank you, some models show a low in 3-4 days in the Gulf going towards Mexico or up toward Houston.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not a good trend for S.FL.

https://i.imgur.com/FEuItkA.png

Though on that track south Florida will be on the weaker side.

I’ve been thinking about that a bit. In this case would it be better to have it hit to your north since it would put you in the southern half? The current track appears to be Stuart which is where I live. So I’m wondering if people in Port St. Lucie and ft pierce will be worse off in the northern eyewall?

I live in PSL also. I’ve never left for a storm in my life. I’m leaving for this one. Fifth wheel is hooked up to the Duramax and fixing to roll out shortly. Smokey Mountain bound. I’m not messing with Dorian.

[will759227]

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.

I dont mean to be rude, but I dont think you totally understand the impacts here in CFL if the storm even threads the needle of the current path forecasted.. that north curve could make Irma look like an afternoon thunderstorm in cfl.

I know, I just mean it isn't looking as bad. Of course with how things have been going I may wake up to the forecast line right over us again who even knows anymore.

Nobody knows where it's going right now, they won't know for another 2 days likely. Unless every model converges and that hasn't happened. I am on the central west coast and still concerned.

[jasons2k]

The only saving grace for Florida would be a stall offshore that allows the trof to sufficiently open up a weakness to the north. This solution seems less likely at this point. Dorian could also have upwelling issues if it slows down offshore. Again, this isn't being predicted really either. The last silver lining is the relatively small size of the cyclone. Models show growth in size, but let's hope they are overdoing the increase. I don't see many positives, so I'm reaching. The southward trend is alarming for Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Crossing my fingers for you guys.

I think you are on to something here regarding the stall and upwelling. A lot of the EC ensembles depict this happening. I would say that potential is more than 30-40% at this point.

Unfortunately, the Gulf Stream has less impacts from upwelling than other parts of the basin, due to the Gulf Stream current replenishing the warm water from the south.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hate to say it but the current satellite presentation of Dorien reminds me of Andrew's while he was in the Bahamas.

[Highteeld]

I hate to say it but the current satellite presentation of Dorien reminds me of Andrew's while he was in the Bahamas.

pics?

[eastcoastFL]

Though on that track south Florida will be on the weaker side.

I’ve been thinking about that a bit. In this case would it be better to have it hit to your north since it would put you in the southern half? The current track appears to be Stuart which is where I live. So I’m wondering if people in Port St. Lucie and ft pierce will be worse off in the northern eyewall?

I live in PSL also. I’ve never left for a storm in my life. I’m leaving for this one. Fifth wheel is hooked up to the Duramax and fixing to roll out shortly. Smokey Mountain bound. I’m not messing with Dorian.

I’m in palm city. I usually stay but I’m flying to Colorado this time. Leaving tomorrow morning. My in laws live in psl by the turnpike and bay shore and they’re staying. I hope you’re leaving soon so you don’t sit in endless traffic heading north. If you leave tomorrow it won’t be as bad but Saturday will be a nightmare.

[Bayousaint]

Just finished putting up shutters. Flight leaves pbi at 6:55am. I should probably sleep soon. I took my dog to my family that lives in boynton so I hope it’s not too bad there. They’re stubborn and never leave...

Safe travels, you should take the dog, boynton is in jeopardy of the core

She’s an older dog and all that time on the plane would mess her up bad. I can’t believe the new track is showing a 140mph cat 4 right into my town. I’m glad I booked that flight.

Can you possibly take the dog with you. I have a very soft spot for animals though. Your veternarian could prescribe a mild tranquilizer (for lack of a better term). You wouldn’t even have to pick it up. They can call it in to your local and least busy pharmacy. Seriously. Don’t leave that baby behind. Hope you don’t mind my opinion.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hate to say it but the current satellite presentation of Dorien reminds me of Andrew's while he was in the Bahamas.

pics?

Current sat images

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL052019

Andrew's you can find by doing a search.

[otowntiger]

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.

Its going to turn, you could get hit by a hurricane

Doubt we get hurricane winds up in Orlando area- as slowly as it will be moving per this forecast it will have lots of time to drop down before it slogs up here. Now flooding rains, that’s another story.

[cjrciadt]

The last three recon fixes go from nw to wnw direction.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Recon confirming the early bend in the track.. if that continues it would be on the southern side of the nhc consensus.

hopefully recon can do a couple more passes to confirm the motion. but from sat and recon it appears the flow has changed.

[Sanibel]

Dorian's losing its tail and consolidating in to a buzz-saw...Not good...

[TheProfessor]

That westward movement may have only been a wobble, but it should be noted that any wobbles that aren't corrected in the other directions will be very important for any potential landfall, especially in the case of the 12z Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

That westward movement may have only been a wobble, but it should be noted that any wobbles that aren't corrected in the other directions will be very important for any potential landfall, especially in the case of the 12z Euro.

yeah, very important.. hopefully, we get a least one more pass to maybe confirm it.

[catskillfire51]

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.

Its going to turn, you could get hit by a hurricane

Doubt we get hurricane winds up in Orlando area- as slowly as it will be moving per this forecast it will have lots of time to drop down before it slogs up here. Now flooding rains, that’s another story.

Depending on which coast it rides, my friends live in melbourne and i tracked 120mph winds with the 12z euro run