ATL: DORIAN - Models

[northjaxpro]

Yeah earlier this morning I mentioned how the 06Z GFS was playing catch-up with UKMET in getting Dorian into the GOM. GFS finallyb falling in line.

UKMET has been outstanding leading the way with its handling of Dorian!!

[USTropics]

GFS 06z trended towards the UKMET and ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/07ZBOex.png

Where did you get this image of the UKMet ensembles?
I swear I found it once, but I can't dig it up again and I want to organize my bookmarks better.

You can get the ensembles here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ncep
Operational runs are here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Pretty fun tool with UKMET/ECMWF ensembles to mess around with as well: https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[p1nheadlarry]

Interesting to see the UKMO ensembles moving further west, whilst the ECM ensembles seem to be still suggesting a near 50-50 split between the storm hitting C/S.Florida and recurving towards the Carolinas/Georgia.

Weight of all the other operational models would suggest the Florida path is still more likely...but the ECM ensembles shouldn't be discounted, especially as the 12z ECM went for that path.

Also interesting to see how exceptionally consistent the UKMO operational has been recently.

Model coups are usually fairly smooth transitions of power lol

[jlauderdal]

The window to the north might be closing on this run. Check that looks like it’s visiting Tampa this time.

High over the appalachia, it can't go north

[Palmcitycane]

GFS 06z trended towards the UKMET and ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/07ZBOex.png

Where did you get this image of the UKMet ensembles?
I swear I found it once, but I can't dig it up again and I want to organize my bookmarks better.

You can get the ensembles here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ncep
Operational runs are here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Pretty fun tool with UKMET/ECMWF ensembles to mess around with as well: https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Very cool. Thank you for sharing.

Need all the info I can get. Anxiety level building for me here in Palm City.

[tolakram]

Latest error chart

[tgenius]

The window to the north might be closing on this run. Check that looks like it’s visiting Tampa this time.

High over the appalachia, it can't go north

Of course things can change buddy but it looks like Dade won’t take the direct hit unless icon plays out.

[dspguy]

Many models seem to be showing a recurve after hitting FL. Is the inflection point (where the storm gains eastward movement) a function of the speed of the storm? The faster the storm comes in, that inflection point would be in say, GOM? And if the storm comes in slower, the inflection point might off the coast of FL? That's probably an oversimplification, but is that somewhat accurate? Based on the modeling output we've seen in the past 6-12 hours.

[StormingB81]

I know it’s not used but gfs legacy brings it into Brevard county...

[Bocadude85]

Latest error chart

https://i.imgur.com/vBpEqmS.png

Interesting HMON isn’t performing all that bad, speaking of which, the 6z has landfall in Miami

[tolakram]

Friendly reminder, this is not the place for non-model chat, take it to the discussion thread. Off topic posts will be deleted.

[invest man]

Is there a 6z euro (abbreviated version)? If so does anyone know if it is in line with the last one?

[tolakram]

Is there a 6z euro (abbreviated version)? If so does anyone know if it is in line with the last one?

Hasn't started yet. It's for subscribers only unless the charts are posted on Twitter. https://weathermodels.com

[gatorcane]

06Z Euro anybody?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1167378569665945606

[tolakram]

Maue's model comparator is really obtuse but I finally got it to work.

6z looks faster and weaker than the 0Z so far. Track similar.

[USTropics]

6z GFS ensembles, mean shifted further west:

[tolakram]

Euro 6Z a little north, a little faster, and weaker. 93.3 kts vs 80.0 kts <- corrected and these numbers are all over the place, not reliable IMO.

[chris_fit]

Euro 6Z a little north, a little faster, and weaker. 93.3 kts vs 80.0 kts <- corrected and these numbers are all over the place, not reliable IMO.

06z Euro is right off the coast of Jupiter crawling WWNW - no S component throughout the track this time

[chris_fit]

Euro 6Z a little north, a little faster, and weaker. 93.3 kts vs 80.0 kts <- corrected and these numbers are all over the place, not reliable IMO.

06z Euro is right off the coast of Jupiter crawling WWNW - no S component throughout the track this time

Just to despise me... the last frame shows a SW dip LOL