ATL: DORIAN - Models

[PavelGaborik10]

Sad Summary: Another very ugly run with much of the east coast of Florida pounded.

Still significantly less extreme than 24 hours ago. This would keep the strongest winds offshore for the overwhelming majority of Florida.

While not ideal, it's far better than I expected this time yesterday.

[FLpanhandle91]

Sad Summary: Another very ugly run with much of the east coast of Florida pounded.

Still significantly less extreme than 24 hours ago. This would keep the strongest winds offshore for the overwhelming majority of Florida.

Borderline cat 5 raking the space coast with its northern eyewall is extreme.

[hurricaneCW]

actually.. I'm getting serious Irma vibes, not matthew... 5 days out this was very similar to the predicted path for irma.. and it went well west of the center

https://cmgpbpeyeonthestorm.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/irma-thurs-2am.jpg

Only problem is Dorian's much further north than Irma, which makes it susceptible to troughs & weaknesses so a further east trend is more probable than west.

I had a feeling when Dorian kept going right of track before Puerto Rico that he'd end up further N/E long term, looks like that's happening.

Could be really good news if these trends continue though it def puts the Carolinas in danger as he'll be pretty far west before the recurve, will be tough to avoid those states.

[Kingarabian]

This 18z GFS run is nuts. The entire east coast shoreline may get some.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just horrible for the east coast of Florida. NO way I would risk mine or my families well being by betting on a turn north 20 or 30 miles east of landfall. On a side note, had to go to Mobile, Ala today from Pensacola...on the way back...saw lots of power trucks headed that way, from Texas. Im sure they are coming from all over the US at this time. Just know our thoughts and prayers are with all you guys...and the calvary is coming to help with any cleanup and power needs any of you may need the next few day. GL and take care ( get the heck outta dodge)!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

While the mods do an excellent job on this forum I've still read a few statements that raise my eyebrows. Just a word to the wise. No one reading this thread if in doubt should use the information here for planning purposes. The NHC track projections are far more accurate than any single run (or multiple runs) of any model (or models). The staff of the NHC is made up of world-renowned experts who are almost without peer. They know what they are doing, trust them.

[BobHarlem]

GFS is basically Matthew's Florida approach, just very slightly west (and probably stronger). I wouldn't bank on it, though. Left side of the storm drops off intensity much quicker, but anything nailed by the eye wouldn't be that.

[caneman]

Turns NW/NNW at 102 hours.

That by no means is a quick turn and if it dips just 50 more miles wsw it's a whole different solution

Never mentioned a “quick turn” and refer to post 4116 by Aric Dunn for a detailed chart

At 78 hours is still moving west, but slowed down to a crawl definite sign of a turn coming soon.

It still didnt mean it was indicative of a turn coming. Sometimes it just means a. Collapse in steering currents. Indeed 2 models still dip it WSW across Florida

[SEASON_CANCELED]

While the mods do an excellent job on this forum I've still read a few statements that raise my eyebrows. Just a word to the wise. No one reading this thread if in doubt should use the information here for planning purposes. The NHC track projections are far more accurate than any single run (or multiple runs) of any model (or models). The staff of the NHC is made up of world-renowned experts who are almost without peer. They know what they are doing, trust them.

Is this post necessary...what posts raise eyebrows?

Nobody is using this forum to tell people how to prepare. I've read 107 pages more than once.

Right now nobody knows where this thing is going to go 5 days from now and thats a fact and listen your local news for advice

[TTARider]

almost looks like a strong W movement recently... could just be wobble watching though

[Kat5]

actually.. I'm getting serious Irma vibes, not matthew... 5 days out this was very similar to the predicted path for irma.. and it went well west of the center

https://cmgpbpeyeonthestorm.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/irma-thurs-2am.jpg

Only problem is Dorian's much further north than Irma, which makes it susceptible to troughs & weaknesses so a further east trend is more probable than west.

I had a feeling when Dorian kept going right of track before Puerto Rico that he'd end up further N/E long term, looks like that's happening.

Could be really good news if these trends continue.

Longwave trough (With Irma) vs Shortwave trough (with Dorian), nearly similar natural phenomenon. Let’s see how significantly the weakness is 4 days from now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

While the mods do an excellent job on this forum I've still read a few statements that raise my eyebrows. Just a word to the wise. No one reading this thread if in doubt should use the information here for planning purposes. The NHC track projections are far more accurate than any single run (or multiple runs) of any model (or models). The staff of the NHC is made up of world-renowned experts who are almost without peer. They know what they are doing, trust them.

Is this post necessary...what posts raise eyebrows?

Nobody is using this forum to tell people how to prepare. I've read 107 pages more than once.

Right now nobody knows where this thing is going to go 5 days from now and thats a fact and listen your local news for advice

I'd say such a post is always in order. I've read a few posts that are "out to sea" and "westbound" (meaning LA and points West). Last night some newbies PM'ed me asking for advice and I told them to listen to the NHC and your local NWS office.

[PavelGaborik10]

Sad Summary: Another very ugly run with much of the east coast of Florida pounded.

Still significantly less extreme than 24 hours ago. This would keep the strongest winds offshore for the overwhelming majority of Florida.

Borderline cat 5 raking the space coast with its northern eyewall is extreme.

As I previously explained far from ideal, but the storm weakens pretty quickly as it hits/skims the coast and doesn't bring the brunt of it's wind on land. It's still a better scenario than a cat 5 bringing its strongest winds onshore and then proceeding to turn N and plow through the Entire state right from the spine.

If the E trend continues tonight things will look better. 0z runs will be telling.

[ronjon]

So to recap, only two models go significantly west into Florida - ICON and HWRF. The German model held.serve at 18z. Let's see what happens with HWRF. I did notice NAM now seems to be following ICON.

[Bocadude85]

If you ask me the 0z models will end up farther west, the 18z GFS was so close to continuing westward into Palm Beach/Martin County. How many times have we seen the models shift off the coast after coming into a consensus on landfall and then two runs later they are back onshore in the same general area. Also models almost always seem to underestimate how far west a westward moving hurricane will get. I’d be preparing for a direct landfall in Northern Palm Beach and the Treasure Coast.

[Blinhart]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

I know it is a far outlier, but I'm actually glad that there is at least one model that does show the possibility of New Orleans. I'm hoping that it doesn't get in the GoM, but if it does watch out all bets are off.

[Nimbus]

almost looks like a strong W movement recently... could just be wobble watching though

Stadium effect a sunset, could be the angle but last 6 hours looks like a steady 310 -320 degrees. Once recon gets out there we will get a few points to validate.

[Kat5]

So to recap, only two models go significantly west into Florida - ICON and HWRF. The German model held.serve at 18z. Let's see what happens with HWRF. I did notice NAM now seems to be following ICON.

Not sure how credible the ICON is with tropical systems, but I wouldn’t use the NAM for trajectory. I use the NAM for heights differentials run to run prior to the GFS release to give indicators of changes on height.

[HurricaneFrances04]

HMON coming in further NW through 24 hours.

[shiny-pebble]

Could the models not initializing Dorian strong enough affect their projected path?

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