ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lrak]

I remember Rita heading due west for days towards Corpus Christi and I was really concerned. And we all know what happened a hard right. Only problem it took out the Golden Triangle. Keeping fingers crossed!

[SunnyThoughts]

Something feels very creepy and wrong about this storm. Maybe it’s just its intensity and lack of concern about it holding together. Maybe it’s the forecasted stall. The aircraft issues causing multiple cancelled recon flights. I dunno. Seems like something is wrong. This one isn’t like any other I’ve tracked in 20 years and it’s weird.

I got that feeling 2 days ago as well. Can't shake it.

[Nimbus]

All of what you said is great except for "slower forward speed usually associated with trochoidal wobbling." That is not correct. Trochoidal wobbling does not cause a slowing of speed. It is part of the forward "stair-stepping" motion. In this case Dorian has been doing trochoidal motion for a long time now so any recent or newly occuring slow down will not be because of trochoidal motion.

Same speed but longer distance to cover..

I tried.

I spelled that "trichoidal" a few days ago carpeting the steps in my mind and suggested the official track was only three steps from Jacksonville. Must have been thinking of Ronnie Van Zant and the plane crash in Baton Rouge. Dorian isn't wasting any time out there fighting the ridge now.

[Nederlander]

[Sanibel]

I guess this is a "pinning" or stalling synoptic where the weakness is just barely the controlling member so when it is combined with a powerful storm it creates tension...

NHC got this...

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://media.giphy.com/media/f6hKr4msnJLsRleK8X/giphy.gif

This is literally... The Picture of Dorian [in] Grey.

...okay I will see myself out now.

[northjaxpro]

It has been mentioned and documented before, but it deserves mention once more. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom with Dorian. This tropical cyclone has pulled several surprises in his lifespan. It really makes me currently still have this uneasy feeling that Dorian may still have one more thing up his sleeve before all is said and done.

[Evenstar]

https://media.giphy.com/media/f6hKr4msnJLsRleK8X/giphy.gif

This is literally... The Picture of Dorian [in] Grey.

...okay I will see myself out now.

Bravo. I've been trying to come up with a way to work that into the conversation (meaning The Portrait of Dorian Grey), but you beat me to it AND it was funny.

[psyclone]

GFS really a close shave. Maybe when additional watches go up north of Sebastian they will be hurricane rather than ts. tough call for sure..

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, the G-IV data may have gotten into the 18z GFS per Levi.

[HurricaneA]

It has been mentioned and documented before, but it deserves mention once more. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom with Dorian. This tropical cyclone has pulled several surprises in his lifespan. It really makes me currently still have this uneasy feeling that Dorian may still have one more thing up his sleeve before all is said and done.

This is exactly what I’ve been thinking this entire time. I’m not buying the eastward shift in the track, and wont until that turn starts. This is the same storm that a week ago, people believed wouldn’t survive the Eastern Caribbean. Anything can happen at this point, nobody should let their guard down.

[dukeblue219]

It has been mentioned and documented before, but it deserves mention once more. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom with Dorian. This tropical cyclone has pulled several surprises in his lifespan. It really makes me currently still have this uneasy feeling that Dorian may still have one more thing up his sleeve before all is said and done.

This is exactly what I’ve been thinking this entire time. I’m not buying the eastward shift in the track, and wont until that turn starts. This is the same storm that a week ago, people believed wouldn’t survive the Eastern Caribbean. Anything can happen at this point, nobody should let their guard down.

At the same time, remember that a storm is not a living entity. Just because it did something odd once doesn't mean it's more likely to do so again. I know you know that, but it's still so tempting around here to assign personality traits to hurricanes.

[hipshot]

It has been mentioned and documented before, but it deserves mention once more. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom with Dorian. This tropical cyclone has pulled several surprises in his lifespan. It really makes me currently still have this uneasy feeling that Dorian may still have one more thing up his sleeve before all is said and done.

This is exactly what I’ve been thinking this entire time. I’m not buying the eastward shift in the track, and wont until that turn starts. This is the same storm that a week ago, people believed wouldn’t survive the Eastern Caribbean. Anything can happen at this point, nobody should let their guard down.

And from what I've seen from recon, this storm is just chugging along pretty much due west. What ever turn it had looked more like a wobble. It has slowed some, down to 8 kts or so but until it turns, I'm not believing it and sure as hell wouldn't advise anyone in the cone to act on that.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

https://media.giphy.com/media/f6hKr4msnJLsRleK8X/giphy.gif

frighteningly impressive

[La Sirena]

https://media.giphy.com/media/f6hKr4msnJLsRleK8X/giphy.gif

This is literally... The Picture of Dorian [in] Grey.

...okay I will see myself out now.

I’ve been waiting forever for someone to make a Dorian Grey joke!!!

[Sanibel]

Steady 285 degrees...

[gatorcane]

GFS really a close shave. Maybe when additional watches go up north of Sebastian they will be hurricane rather than ts. tough call for sure..

Really close shave, wobble watching gets really important from here on out.

[Blown Away]

I think the 11pm NHC disco will include a detailed explanation of the sample data and I'm thinking it will begin the point where they have more confidence in their track...

[xironman]

It has been mentioned and documented before, but it deserves mention once more. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom with Dorian. This tropical cyclone has pulled several surprises in his lifespan. It really makes me currently still have this uneasy feeling that Dorian may still have one more thing up his sleeve before all is said and done.

This is exactly what I’ve been thinking this entire time. I’m not buying the eastward shift in the track, and wont until that turn starts. This is the same storm that a week ago, people believed wouldn’t survive the Eastern Caribbean. Anything can happen at this point, nobody should let their guard down.

And from what I've seen from recon, this storm is just chugging along pretty much due west. What ever turn it had looked more like a wobble. It has slowed some, down to 8 kts or so but until it turns, I'm not believing it and sure as hell wouldn't advise anyone in the cone to act on that.

All it would take is a 100 mile shift in a three day track to make everything different. That would not be a bust in the models, but within the normal expected error range.

[tropicwatch]

Couple of weather stations on Great Abaco
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICENTRAL174