ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Northjaxpro

To your post on the models thread.
I am debating whether to stay or evacuate
So the proximity to the shore is paramount

Well JD Jaguar , here is one more thing I forgot to emphasize. We will evemtualy seè Eyewall Replacement Cycles over the next couple of days. Dorian is small now but with each ERC. Dorian' s windfield and overall size wlli expand, which will widen its impacts across the region as time progresses.

This is a extremely dangerous storm JD. It is much sttonger than Irma ànd the impacts will be potentially as bad or even worse.

I would not take any risks with this storm. Prepare to take action if necessary.

Just hooked up the 5th wheel.
Ready to roll out tomorrow morning ahead of any evacuation orders that may be issued.

Will wait for the 5am update to make the go no go call.

Thanks for your input.

We stayed for Irma, and received a few 85/90 gusts from that nasty feeder band that stretched almost to Cuba.

[tropicwatch]

Latest Recon pass confirms that Dorian is maintaining its Cat 4 status, and also shows it has not gained any latitude since earlier this afternoon.

225930 2610N 07434W 7517 01980 9415 +183 +167 266003 005 026 000 03
230000 2611N 07432W 7523 01974 9416 +183 +165 184012 017 026 000 00
230030 2612N 07430W 7521 01983 9423 +182 +167 166030 041 042 001 00
230100 2613N 07428W 7532 01997 9458 +177 +165 157073 087 120 003 00
230130 2614N 07426W 7453 02171 9551 +156 //// 149126 136 124 012 01

Center fix:
26.167N 74.567W

AF just found some 160+ surface Oooopss they were flight lvl.

[GCANE]

Red cross is the CoC just tagged by recon.

https://i.imgur.com/KjI6VK6.png

well south of forecast points

https://i.imgur.com/XJwaFQ9.gif


Latest... I see maybe a slight hair S of due W... 26N line will be a good gauge tonight...

Seen that too, especially if I focus on the south eyewall.

[michelinj]

144kts found in the NorthWest eyewall I believe

[Hammy]

Latest Recon pass confirms that Dorian is maintaining its Cat 4 status, and also shows it has not gained any latitude since earlier this afternoon.

225930 2610N 07434W 7517 01980 9415 +183 +167 266003 005 026 000 03
230000 2611N 07432W 7523 01974 9416 +183 +165 184012 017 026 000 00
230030 2612N 07430W 7521 01983 9423 +182 +167 166030 041 042 001 00
230100 2613N 07428W 7532 01997 9458 +177 +165 157073 087 120 003 00
230130 2614N 07426W 7453 02171 9551 +156 //// 149126 136 124 012 01

Center fix:
26.167N 74.567W

AF just found some 160+ surface

High rain rates--they probably won't go higher than 155 for the advisory without more conclusive data.

[shah83]

Okay, is that the highest sustained wind speed ever for a storm that is in the 940s?

[NDG]

Latest Recon pass confirms that Dorian is maintaining its Cat 4 status, and also shows it has not gained any latitude since earlier this afternoon.

225930 2610N 07434W 7517 01980 9415 +183 +167 266003 005 026 000 03
230000 2611N 07432W 7523 01974 9416 +183 +165 184012 017 026 000 00
230030 2612N 07430W 7521 01983 9423 +182 +167 166030 041 042 001 00
230100 2613N 07428W 7532 01997 9458 +177 +165 157073 087 120 003 00
230130 2614N 07426W 7453 02171 9551 +156 //// 149126 136 124 012 01

Center fix:
26.167N 74.567W

AF just found some 160+ surface Oooopss they were flight lvl.

Wow, I see that!

231900 2619N 07441W 6966 02753 9621 +345 +345 062142 144 143 046 00
231930 2618N 07441W 6964 02700 9551 +348 +348 064128 142 145 043 03

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro

To your post on the models thread.
I am debating whether to stay or evacuate
So the proximity to the shore is paramount

Well JD Jaguar , here is one more thing I forgot to emphasize. We will evemtualy seè Eyewall Replacement Cycles over the next couple of days. Dorian is small now but with each ERC. Dorian' s windfield and overall size wlli expand, which will widen its impacts across the region as time progresses.

This is a extremely dangerous storm JD. It is much sttonger than Irma ànd the impacts will be potentially as bad or even worse.

I would not take any risks with this storm. Prepare to take action if necessary.

Just hooked up the 5th wheel.
Ready to roll out tomorrow morning ahead of any evacuation orders that may be issued.

Will wait for the 5am update to make the go no go call.

Thanks for your input.

We stayed for Irma, and received a few 85/90 gusts from that nasty feeder band that stretched almost to Cuba.

Smart decision JD for you and your family. It is ALWAYS.better always to be safe and protect your loved ones!!

[TheStormExpert]

Track was nudged a little south and west in the Bahamas @ 5pm.

[GeneratorPower]

Red cross is the CoC just tagged by recon.

https://i.imgur.com/KjI6VK6.png

well south of forecast points

https://i.imgur.com/XJwaFQ9.gif


Latest... I see maybe a slight hair S of due W... 26N line will be a good gauge tonight...

Actual movement south of west would be a big development. Looks like a very very long wobble if it’s not.

[Hurrilurker]

Recon shows Dorian hasn't really strengthened, MSLP down to ~942mb.

Well, with how sporadic recon has been, who knows though, it easily could have nipped into cat-5 several times over the last few days.

Probably not really that important whether it’s a strong cat-4 or a weak cat-5 at this time though, the steering currents around it are much more important right now IMO.

[Hammy]

well south of forecast points

https://i.imgur.com/XJwaFQ9.gif


Latest... I see maybe a slight hair S of due W... 26N line will be a good gauge tonight...

Actual movement south of west would be a big development. Looks like a very very long wobble if it’s not.

What would the implications of this be if it's not a wobble?

[CrazyC83]

With that data, I would probably go with 135 kt for the intensity. Those winds are the highest yet, but not quite confident enough to go cat 5. Reading the extrapolated data, the pressure looks to be around 938 mb?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HH definitely suggests Dorian may have become a Category 5. Flight level winds have definitely come up and multiple SFMR readings Cat 5.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With that data, I would probably go with 135 kt for the intensity. Those winds are the highest yet, but not quite confident enough to go cat 5. Reading the extrapolated data, the pressure looks to be around 938 mb?

Dropsonde data shows 163 knots at the 905mb level, so there's definitely strong winds aloft too.

[DestinHurricane]

Anyone have link to east Bahamas radar

[Hammy]

Anyone have link to east Bahamas radar

http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[GCANE]

Splash
26.2N 74.6W
941mb
At surface: Air Temp 27.4C, Dewpoint 26.9C

[jaxfladude]

JDJaguar,

The latest projection by the GFS 18Z run does have the eyewall of Dorian passing about 60 miles offshore of Mayport. If this verifies, yeah hurricane force wind confitions einds will definitely be likely experienced at the coast with potential of winds 60-70 mph at least about 20-25 miles inland from the ciast. This would invlude areas along I-95 corrifor into Downtown metro Jax on Wednesday evening, based on the 18Z GFS.

Now, remember, and you should be we aware of to this juncyure, this can change. The disturbing thing is the last 3 GFS run packages has shown a shift to the southwest.

NO ONE SHOULD BE TAKING THEIR EYES OFF OF THIS MONSTER ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA!!

Yikes me no like........are you getting more worried(-ish) or for now it's just the gfs? And Matthew level impacts or worse or not as much due to size of (how wide are hurricane/TS force winds right now?) hurricane force winds radius and TS force winds radius(if it stays rather small-ish)? as to other model(s) are they saying the same or going to east/west of gfs track?

[Yellow Evan]

Unless they think there's really something wrong with SFMR at high end intensities, not sure why this still 130.