Aric Dunn wrote:ozonepete wrote:NDG wrote:Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.
There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.
Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..
its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.
Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?