ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.

Could be the rare case where a hurricane is creating its own environment

Most of the models outside of the Euro keep wanting to have Dorian gain some latitude right off the bat but that is not happening at least so far.

[MacTavish]

I posted yesterday expecting an ERC or two. The lack thereof and no evidence in recon/microwave of one in the future is interesting. A microwave pass yesterday showed the core was very robust. Will be interesting to go back and look at this later.

[HurricaneFrances04]

WV loop. Very impressive

https://i.imgur.com/M99MdZe.gif

Looks like the first trough that will break down the ridge in the top left?

[Ed_2001]

To think that a few days ago we expected Dorian to fall apart right after passing the lesser Antilles...

[fllawyer]

FYI, Orlando just rescinded their decision to close on Monday...

[johngaltfla]

Still not gaining much latitude.

020900 2613N 07501W 7516 01951 9380 +186 +167 119010 014 032 000 03

Below the 2300 forecast point of 26.30 N...

[CrazyC83]

thinking they should have waited to see the 11 PM update, they may have to reverse that again later

They’re now saying they will continue to monitor the situation.

Same line WDW said too.

Even then, Orlando wouldn't get into it until Tuesday?

[Full8s]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".

He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.

Not to be obtuse, but I think I saw the same report and he (Delgado) intimated that things were looking good for the Tampa area, which to my mind, is very different than an "all clear".

[sponger]

So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.

No choice but to wait until 5 am. Tomorrow could be an absolute zoo.

[Patrick99]

There is no sign it is gaining any latitude. Just heading west looking at the IR at the same speed.

I see maybe a slight hair north.....but could just be tricking me. With the small N/S wobbles it’s hard to tell.

[johngaltfla]

I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".

He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.

Not to be obtuse, but I think I saw the same report and he (Delgado) intimated that things were looking good for the Tampa area, which to my mind, is very different than an "all clear".

That sounds more like Paul. He would never say the c word casually, at least not until a system was well north of 28 degrees.

[jasons2k]

I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".

He was referring to a specific message from WTVT.

Not to be obtuse, but I think I saw the same report and he (Delgado) intimated that things were looking good for the Tampa area, which to my mind, is very different than an "all clear".

I didn’t see the report; I may have to watch the 11pm news online. I would be surprised to see Delegatto explicitly issue an ‘all clear’ as he knows what he’s doing.

He’s also a lurker here sometimes.

[PandaCitrus]

They will do what all good government officials do. Pass the buck and find a scapegoat to throw under the bus and follow orders from the NHC. The good folks at the National Hurricane Center will own whatever happens, sadly.

So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.

No choice but to wait until 5 am. Tomorrow could be an absolute zoo.

[GeneratorPower]

So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.

There may not be enough time left for an orderly evacuation from Southeast Florida. If they delay there won’t be time. Evac is because of storm surge and the risk is considerable.

[cjrciadt]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
My unprofessional guess for track.
https://ibb.co/b2QHzYR

[Buck]

They will do what all good government officials do. Pass the buck and find a scapegoat to throw under the bus and follow orders from the NHC. The good folks at the National Hurricane Center will own whatever happens, sadly.

Hey don’t pass me

[Blown Away]

INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH

Dorian going to pass the 0600z 75.7
forecast point probably by 11pm from what I can see... Moving faster than forecasted it appears?

[galaxy401]

The hottest waters of the area are right in front of Dorian. An ERC will be the only obstacle unless a surge of shear or dry air comes.

Looks terrifying.

[jasons2k]

is it just me or does this thing look like its just barrelling W. feel like we shouldve seen some kind of slow down by now

One thing in the back of my mind all day: basic physics and inertia. An object already in motion requires more force to stop it than for it to keep going (inertia).

We may be seeing this with Dorian.

It’s eerily quiet from the pro Mets. Sometimes that means it’s really busy behind the scenes and the forecast isn’t that straightforward. I suspect we may be seeing some of that tonight.

[ObsessedMiami]

So imagine you’re an EMC in South or Central Florida right now. The models say you’re probably dodging a bullet. Can you justify an evacuation to your local leaders if the NHC themselves are telling you that they expect a hard right? Having lived through the Rita evacuation in Houston, I know that mass evacuations are neither easy nor lightly decided... but how long can you wait? If Dorian keeps making a beeline for your area with Cat 5 winds, at some point when do you make a call... or do you wait, and pray the models and experts are right?

What a position to be in for some men and women tonight. I’ll be saying a little prayer for them as they ponder the consequences of both decisions.

There may not be enough time left for an orderly evacuation from Southeast Florida. If they delay there won’t be time. Evac is because of storm surge and the risk is considerable.

Evac to where exactly? Maybe West Coast? Certainly can’t go north