ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5061 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:05 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Well color me confused. Doesn't make sense to throw out very consistent data indicating otherwise, but if the pressure keeps falling and winds keep being significantly above category five threshold on future flights and aren't flagged, there'd be no choice but to upgrade.


But they only forecast to 155 mph, they do not want to forecast a five. In all fairness it is incredibly likely for it to hit Cat 5 and then be a 4 within the 12 hour window.


They've forecast to Cat 5 with both Irma and Ivan, but I believe those were the only two times (and both were, if I remember, after they'd already achieved it once.)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5062 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:05 pm

Still, I disagree with keeping at 150 since its presentation is improved from even the impressive look this morning; 155mph would have been very reasonable but there's no question it's stronger than it was when it was bumped to 150.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5063 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:05 pm

Ok, so why are we even using recon if the NHC does not upgrade after BOTH planes had cat 5 data... really? Seems a little messed up to me...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5064 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:06 pm

I can probably see why NHC are holding off on intensity, dry air may inhibit intensification overnight, so it may have already peaked as of this evening.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5065 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:06 pm

Hammy wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Well color me confused. Doesn't make sense to throw out very consistent data indicating otherwise, but if the pressure keeps falling and winds keep being significantly above category five threshold on future flights and aren't flagged, there'd be no choice but to upgrade.


But they only forecast to 155 mph, they do not want to forecast a five. In all fairness it is incredibly likely for it to hit Cat 5 and then be a 4 within the 12 hour window.


They've forecast to Cat 5 with both Irma and Ivan, but I believe those were the only two times (and both were, if I remember, after they'd already achieved it once.)


They've forecast Cat 5 many times in the Eastern Pacific over the years.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5066 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:06 pm

Hammy wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Well color me confused. Doesn't make sense to throw out very consistent data indicating otherwise, but if the pressure keeps falling and winds keep being significantly above category five threshold on future flights and aren't flagged, there'd be no choice but to upgrade.


But they only forecast to 155 mph, they do not want to forecast a five. In all fairness it is incredibly likely for it to hit Cat 5 and then be a 4 within the 12 hour window.


They've forecast to Cat 5 with both Irma and Ivan, but I believe those were the only two times (and both were, if I remember, after they'd already achieved it once.)


Gustav in 2008 was forecast to hit 140kt in the Gulf right after it hit 135kt at Cuban landfall (advisory 25) but of course Cuba disrupted the center and it never regained major hurricane status
Last edited by EquusStorm on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5067 Postby pcolaman » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:07 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:NHC must be in we're not gonna panic Florida mode cause all the evidence points to at LEAST 155mph and to not move the cone despite all the models shifting?

As another poster said, they doubled-down on their forecast. Millions of people are going to bed with all-clear in their minds, even though that’s not what NHC said. It’s what people are inferring from the track forecast. This storm could be one for the record books in terms of how it was handled for public consumption. I can point to no critical errors by NHC. But sometimes logical decisions are the building blocks of an unintended nightmare.


Do you think there reasoning could be to not cause mass Panic and because they know they didn't get 6million people out of harms way earlier? SMH
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5068 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:07 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:I can see why NHC are holding off on intensity, dry air may inhibit intensification overnight, so it may have already peaked as of this evening.


Not when data shows otherwise.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5069 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:07 pm

Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility.



This was removed from earlier disco's and added back again tonight... I think the NHC decided to hold for the 00z sound data before acknowledging possible changes... JMHO
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5070 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility.



This was removed from earlier disco's and added back again tonight... I think the NHC decided to hold for the 00z sound data before acknowledging possible changes... JMHO
They want to do a few hundred more drops before they believe the data
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5071 Postby Kazmit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:09 pm

Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5072 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:09 pm

Image

Still deepening.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5073 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:11 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/7kbgq3c.jpg

Still deepening.


I guess someone at 5AM will pull the trigger lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5074 Postby craptacular » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:11 pm

ronyan wrote:
MrJames wrote:Is recon still sampling? Maybe they are waiting to finish and then do a special advisory.

No I believe the planes are heading back.


The AF Hercules is still in the middle of its mission. Scheduled to be on station for another 2-2.5 hours, so they should probably get two more center fixes.
Last edited by craptacular on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5075 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:11 pm

The Bahamas are in big trouble. Prayers their way, and hopefully they all stay safe. Are any of those islands densely populated?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5076 Postby MacTavish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:11 pm

Kazmit wrote:Why are they so hesitant with the cat 4/5 threshold? It shouldn't be treated any different than the differences between other categories.


The media complicates the situation.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5077 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 pm

It’s not even just with the winds. The Air Force drop in the eye confirmed 937 mbar but yet they just went with 940...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5078 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/7kbgq3c.jpg

Still deepening.


I guess someone at 5AM will pull the trigger lol


At this rate they'll be 160 FL and they will still leave this at 130.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5079 Postby Ian2401 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:12 pm

Posted this in the model threads but figured it goes better here...

the 00z icon at +3hr has Dorian at ~75.1 W. Looking at satellitle loops, Dorian is already well past 75.1 W and still travelling at a fast clip.

is it wrong to get concerned about the forward speed of this thing? i honestly feel as if it is moving much faster than expected, and has been all day.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5080 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:13 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167995516220665856


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