ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Is it still south of the forecast points?

[johngaltfla]

HH eye position puts Dorian southwest of 5am position.

If that sustains for 12 hours on a WSW motion, all hell will break loose. Let's watch and see what happens with the 1800 model runs also.

[Mouton]

The latest HWRF shows Dorian 's eyewall.roughly abou 25 miles.inland , moving up along the I-95 corrodor to a position.just SW of Savannah by.12Z Thursday morming. Jax being hammered.on the souyhrtn edge of thee inner core.

This woulld be absolutely catasttophic fot NE Florida and Southeast GA if this.pans out. An extremely slow moving cyvlone. Rainfall rates are just going to be thtough the roof with this cyclone's slow movement.

Driving me nuts up here on AI. My barometer has been rapidly rising (.03 in 2 hrs) which to me indicates enforced ridging. Storm still on a western course, no reason it would turn into a rising pressure environment this soon. I noticed that HWRF path a bit ago too. Only decent info in that forecast is the winds were sub 105KT here which would seem logical given the water temps off the west of the gulf stream... but still, a potential disaster for here for sure along with everything south to Ormand. I don't understand the NHC reluctance to issue stronger alerts. What you see is what you are going to get and what I see here is a disaster, mortally and financially.

Of course the NHC gets paid to be right, I just do informed guesses.

[GCANE]

Tons of hot water to track into.
Almost as potent as the Loop Current.

[CourierPR]

HH eye position puts Dorian southwest of 5am position.

Is it a wobble or a trend?

[Highteeld]

This storm is up there with Super Typhoon Megi (2010) in terms of SFMR.

[supercane4867]

These SFMR readings are at WTF levels...jesus christ

[tropicwatch]

HH eye position puts Dorian southwest of 5am position.

Is it a wobble or a trend?

Have to wait and see.

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1168159098292117506

[GTStorm]

Perfection

https://i.imgur.com/1Upyz0H.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DweIIVQ.jpg

I have lived here all my life and i have never seen such an extremely well organized tropical cyvlone so powerful.just off.our coast. RIight now at this writing, Dorian is stronger than what Hugo, Mattthew, and Floyd were on approach., the big major hurricanes that threatened Jax the past 20-30 years. It is frightening to really process in full. Just an incredible cyclone no doubt about it!!

defintely agree...what are folks down there saying. Here, (not too far from you guys) seems like a lot of indifference. Local weather speaking to effects more along the immediate coast due to smaller size of storm.

[xironman]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

[supercane4867]

170kt unflagged!!! HOLY HELL

132030 2621N 07632W 6937 02631 9430 +098 +052 258134 144 170 042 00

[CronkPSU]

the "Hope" cirrus clouds are still headed west....

[WeatherEmperor]

170kt unflagged!!! HOLY HELL

132030 2621N 07632W 6937 02631 9430 +098 +052 258134 144 170 042 00

Does this translate to 200mph?????


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[supercane4867]

170kt unflagged!!! HOLY HELL

132030 2621N 07632W 6937 02631 9430 +098 +052 258134 144 170 042 00

Does this translate to 200mph?????


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190mph, 175kt is 200mph

[Highteeld]

Would be 5-8 higher in the N/NW eyewall upon landing

[northjaxpro]

We could be seeing near record barometi pressure reafings with Dorian attained.

He has not e evn reached the Gulf Stream Current yet. Perfect conditions in place, virtually no wind shear a d he will reach the Gulf Steam tomorrow. There is nothing to stop this thing ftom strengthening.
Dorian just may reach 200 mph SUSTAINED wind.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Astonishing to think this is about to possibly hit 185-190 mph soon considering we expected it to fizzle out after crossing PR/DR...

[Iune]

170kt unflagged!!! HOLY HELL

132030 2621N 07632W 6937 02631 9430 +098 +052 258134 144 170 042 00

Does this translate to 200mph?????


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170 kts is 195 mph

[KWT]

170kt unflagged!!! HOLY HELL

132030 2621N 07632W 6937 02631 9430 +098 +052 258134 144 170 042 00

FL winds don't support it though so NHC will discount it. Still clearly strengthening though...

Dorian long term motion is still only a hint of north of West, probably 275 at most, and long periods at due west.

Also still travelling faster than it has been forecasted at this point. Most models slow Dorian down from now in a big way...not happening yet though.