ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Perhaps lost in all the wobble watching and hand-wringing over the timing of the turn, but is it me or have there been NO updates from anyone on the Abacos Islands since the eye passed over?

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Judging by videos the damage is catastrophic. I wouldnt expect any communication till somebody flies out that way

and most of those videos were during the calm of the eye, the worst part hadn't arrived yet.

No videos yet of afterwords. Hope that lady with her baby are ok. Water was on the second floor

[Hurrilurker]

Is it jogging SW???

Or is that my eyes

Looks like a wobble WSW, but give it 6 hours and see the position. I still think a pass over or just south of Freeport is within the realm of possibility only due to the ridge not collapsing or weakening yet.

Yes, if the eye somehow goes south of Freeport, it's definitely time to worry and start re-evaluating what is happening. That's a critical milestone. Although, there is a possibility of a little loop before heading north, which could falsely present itself as southern movement if extrapolated out.

[nativefloridian]

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

Well Dorian better stall right now

It's not forecast to stall until it reaches Freeport.

I understand that's what is forecasted, however it appears it will reach Freeport before 36 hrs.

[1900hurricane]

Pressure definitely up a little. Not sure if it's due to land or structural.

I believe it's due to land and upwelling. The waters between the islands are not as deep

Don't think it's upwelling. If it was, we'd see some top warming. We're seeing the opposite of that right now with sunset. Although, it certainly is something to keep an eye on for the next day or two. Land does look valid though. Irma's pressure briefly rose above 920 mb after crossing some of the NE Caribbean islands before coming back down to about 915 mb again once clear.

[NFLnut]

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

For that to be valid, it also has to slow to the crawl they've been predicting. Right?

Well, it has slowed from 10mph to 8mph to 5mph so a slow down has occurred and that was as of the 5pm. I do admit that it "appears" to be going faster, but these loops that everyone is watching are 3-4 hours so it is hard to judge speed.

[stormhunter7]

Eye is over some shallow water now..... i wonder how this will affect the evaporation being pulled up by the 170+mph winds...?

[mpic]

Will they wait now until Dorian has completely cleared the islands to do another recon?

[1900hurricane]

Am I imagining things or could you see the pinwheel eye effect in the eye for a little bit there? If you remember isabel's when it was annular. I HATE using the word annular at all unless there's enough evidence to support it but it just looks interesting lol


[url][url]https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/1168269979625459712[/url] [/url]

Nope, it's definitely in there. You'll see it in the eye of intense tropical cyclones sometimes, regardless of eye size. Super Typhoon Jebi had a particularly vivid one last year in an eye about this size.

[RL3AO]

Well Dorian better stall right now

It's not forecast to stall until it reaches Freeport.

I understand that's what is forecasted, however it appears it will reach Freeport before 36 hrs.

The NHC forecast has it at Freeports longitude at 1pm tomorrow.

[yzerfan]

We were on I-10 in the western Florida panhandle and saw lots of power company trucks with Texas plates heading eastward toward staging areas.

[dukeblue219]

Will they wait now until Dorian has completely cleared the islands to do another recon?

Nah. That AF flight will be in there for quite a while now, and these islands aren't a huge impediment to recon. They won't penetrate over land most likely but that's about it.

[ozonepete]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

Yup. Exactly right.

[tropicwatch]

It's not forecast to stall until it reaches Freeport.

I understand that's what is forecasted, however it appears it will reach Freeport before 36 hrs.

The NHC forecast has it at Freeports longitude at 1pm tomorrow.

Even at 5mph it could be there as soon as 10am eastern time.

[sicktght311]

Am I imagining things or could you see the pinwheel eye effect in the eye for a little bit there? If you remember isabel's when it was annular. I HATE using the word annular at all unless there's enough evidence to support it but it just looks interesting lol


[url][url]https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/1168269979625459712[/url] [/url]

Incredible to see the gravity waves expanding outwards too

[edu2703]

8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.6°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

[hipshot]

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

Yup. Exactly right.

Man, I hope you're right (the NHC is right) because if it slips a little south or stays west longer, the east coast of Florida is going to have some serious problems, just my 2c.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is it jogging SW???

Or is that my eyes

Looks like a wobble WSW, but give it 6 hours and see the position. I still think a pass over or just south of Freeport is within the realm of possibility only due to the ridge not collapsing or weakening yet.

Yes, if the eye somehow goes south of Freeport, it's definitely time to worry and start re-evaluating what is happening. That's a critical milestone. Although, there is a possibility of a little loop before heading north, which could falsely present itself as southern movement if extrapolated out.

That would mean its smelling out one of UKMETs tracks that take it across the state.

Its the only model showing the SW dip

[supercane4867]

Both 18z HMON and HWRF have landfall on the Cape. Sadly the state of Florida may not dodge the bullet of the decade after all

[ozonepete]

Will they wait now until Dorian has completely cleared the islands to do another recon?

Yes. If any part of the eye is over land they will not go into it.

[Highteeld]

Just think about it... this thing could weaken 55 mph and still be a Cat 4!