ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Just had the first very significant outer band from Dorian rotate through my locsle and it bought a wind gust to 41 mph here at my home station. Pretty good squall with heavy downpours. No lightning was observed.

[igoldfish]

Article in the Washington post about Josh M. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... ing-story/

[Vdogg]

Deep convection starting to surround a pinhole eye. NHC says pressure rise has leveled off. This sucker looks about ready to take off. Something to watch closely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[otowntiger]

Deep convection starting to surround a pinhole eye. NHC says pressure rise has leveled off. This sucker looks about ready to take off. Something to watch closely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Not sure about - is gradually improving. But Just look at the latest radar to see pretty much the opposite of a ‘pinhole eye’ I’d say it’s holding steady though and certainly still very formidable.

[Visioen]

This thing was born and raised in dry air, it's its natural background state.

[Nimbus]

Power outages on the increase in Florida. 10,000+
https://poweroutage.us/

So far less than ~5% outage in Flagler and St John counties which took the brunt of that first feeder band. Dorian has rewrapped the heavy convection around his core this morning and will likely maintain as a category two hurricane today. Those heavy feeder bands are just off the coast so we are down to local radar for the minute by minute forecast. Probably some 50 knot winds in that next ring colored yellow.

[tolakram]

live visible loop

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=910.4216156005859&y=759.4486389160156

ir
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=996.8495483398438&y=772.8697032928467

[plasticup]

Article in the Washington post about Josh M. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... ing-story/

I am glad he is unharmed, but I wish they wouldn't glorify these attention-seekers who suck up resources in such a desperate situation. He has already gotten out to Nassau, and someone else could have had that seat. There is a good chance that some desperate person dies in Grand Bahama because they couldn't leave on the seat he took.

[Evenstar]

I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?

I understand your frustration and concern. However, Florida is- or soon will be- experiencing hurricane force wind and storm surge. And the storm has recently been wobbling more toward the west. I have family and friends there. Until the storm clears Florida, it's a "consideration." I suspect that when the storm gets closer to you, the activity will pick up.

One major reason is because we have far more members in Florida than in most other states. I remember storms like Irene and Sandy were like that as well.

It's human nature to keep a closer eye on the danger approaching oneself. I totally get it. I just miss the high-level contributions some of our FL folks add to our overall conversations. But then, as always, I've got the pros, the mods and weather geniuses like Aric, all of whom have always responded to my inquiries and concerns (even my whiny PM's). In other words, we have an intellectual embarrassment of riches here and I am grateful for it every season.

[dukeblue219]

Article in the Washington post about Josh M. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... ing-story/

I am glad he is unharmed, but I wish they wouldn't glorify these attention-seekers who suck up resources in such a desperate situation. He has already gotten out to Nassau, and someone else could have had that seat. There is a good chance that some desperate person dies in Grand Bahama because they couldn't leave on the seat he took.

You can say the same about "real journalists" visiting war zones or famine-stricken nations. The plane they used could have been used for relief supplies and evac. But sometimes the story needs to be told.

I'd agree with you if Instagram "influencers" were going in just to be there, but storm chasers do provide at least some level of information and awareness about hurricanes.

But, this feels off topic and possibly inflammatory so I will leave it at that.

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1169215612553453569

[Portastorm]

Reminder that this is a storm thread and not a thread to debate the societal and scientific value of storm chasers. Feel free to do that ... just on a new thread dedicated to that topic. Thanks.

[GCANE]

Extreme rain rate indicates intensification possible

[toad strangler]

Now that Dorian is well N of me I can report that he was a huge DUD in my backyard. And thankfully so. The outer bands that came ashore yesterday on the Treasure Coast and last night were more mild than everyday T-Storms we get during rainy season. Like I said, THANKFULLY.

[Hurricane Jed]

Keep sharp folks, we’re still not done with Dorian. Stay safe out there

[TallyTracker]

From looking at satellite imagery this morning, it looks like Dorian might have one last round of intensification to come. The thing is though sometimes storms will “intensify” with lower pressure, but the strongest winds will simply spread out rather than significantly increase. Think Hurricane Ike. My guess is top winds stay the same or slightly higher, but there could be a major increase in the radius of hurricane and tropical storm force winds.

[hipshot]

live visible loop

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=910.4216156005859&y=759.4486389160156

ir
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=996.8495483398438&y=772.8697032928467

In that IR image it sure looked like Dorian was moving more westerly, was that just a wobble?

[supercane4867]

Slowly churning northward

[Vdogg]

Can't figure out if this is a dead cat bounce or the real deal. Those are some very hot towers firing, and it seems like he's finally mixing out some of that dry air, but pressure keeps rising. It's confounding.

[seahawkjd]

The last couple of frames on the satellite really look a lot better. People seem to be taking it pretty seriously here as we found out last year how bad a cat 1 can be when it moves slowly.

Edit: Or maybe it just moved the dry slot from the east side to the west lol.