ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

SEQ had the strongest winds on the first pass too.

[emeraldislenc]

Any of confirmation of stronger hurricane?

[emeraldislenc]

Stronger storm would not be good for us in NC.

[supercane4867]

The large eye is becoming better defined

[Nimbus]

Central pressure down to 962 and center has wobbled around toward the north (possibly a little earlier than forecast). 5PM update will be an important one. If Dorian moves with the shear and stays off shore so that the dry air intrusion doesn't get into the core circulation he could easily return to category 3. Some areas of Georgia are prone to storm surge flooding because of the shape of the shoreline, the local flood management agencies have undoubtedly evacuated those areas already.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely looking better this afternoon.

[supercane4867]

I can't remember a hurricane near this location that looked better than Dorian since maybe Hugo

[1900hurricane]

The way the core is filling back in on radar reminds me of Ike '08 just prior to final landfall.

[PandaCitrus]

I can't remember a hurricane near this location that looked better than Dorian since maybe Hugo

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d25cb38b657ecdf17c92f41b3d47102ba3660423eb83f6761b9f7c5212c5f9ff.png

The Euro model gets the storm down to 942MB before the NC coast. That could be Hugo strength. A Cat 4 is possible here if it deepens that much.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The way the core is filling back in on radar reminds me of Ike '08 just prior to final landfall.

Same here. Ike was such an underestimated storm. I feel like Dorian might end up being looked at the same if it gets close enough or makes landfall. Even if it doesn't it'll still cause a decent amount of damage.

[supercane4867]

I can't remember a hurricane near this location that looked better than Dorian since maybe Hugo

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d25cb38b657ecdf17c92f41b3d47102ba3660423eb83f6761b9f7c5212c5f9ff.png

The Euro model gets the storm down to 942MB before the NC coast. That could be Hugo strength. A Cat 4 is possible here if it deepens that much.

CAT4 is not likely due to its structure, but a 110kt CAT3 is very plausible with 942mb.

[Highteeld]

several 105-110 kt FL wind obs there.

[MGC]

Eye would have to contract a lot to reach Cat-4. Cat-3 is possible. Dorian is looking better and better.....MGC

[supercane4867]

Smart way to protect a Smart car lol

 https://twitter.com/nbc6/status/1169313860555333632

[HurricaneEnzo]

I can't remember a hurricane near this location that looked better than Dorian since maybe Hugo

Arthur in 2014 had a pretty nice appearance. Looked stronger that it actually was IMO

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[aperson]

Copying over a post I made from another forum that, while not about Dorian's current track, is about its future interactions and their impact on synoptics:

I've been watching Lingling and Dorian recently, and I'm interested that they both undergo extratropical transition and integrate their momentum into the jet stream around the same time:



Dorian and Lingling are the symmetrically opposite 968mb lows here. Their angular momentum seems to enhance a dipole pattern, and the timing of their momentum transfer will be critical to how it sets up here. Regardless of the exact configuration, it looks like this will split the initiating tropospheric polar vortex into two lobes and allow a major heat/moisture intrusion from the Pacific



As we enter peak hurricane season, it's important to remember that one of the major heat engines that moves heat from equator to pole are tropical cyclones, so watching their activity will be critical to see how the freezing season initiates (or fails to)

This to me indicates that the melting season is not over yet and way may see losses for the next two weeks. I would be stunned if the AO does not go negative again in the next two weeks, but then again I'm just a naive observer and not a pro meteorologist.

[PandaCitrus]

The eye is tightening up on radar the past hour. Weaker East side starting to fill in.

[Highteeld]

extrap sub 960

[wx98]

Is this thing going Cat 3 again?

[toad strangler]

Def looking better organized.