Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[AtlanticWind]

Noticed the wave at 51w firing some convection.

The CMC maintains some vorticity as do some other models
Wonder if this has any chance of development.

[AtlanticWind]

Convection continues to fire ,might be interaction with upper low

[N2FSU]

10% per NHC


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[AtlanticWind]

Convection really firing now ,not surprised the NHC tagged it.
Have to watch these sneaky ones at the peak of season.

[northjaxpro]

Convection really firing now ,not surprised the NHC tagged it.
Have to watch these sneaky ones at the peak of season.

I am watching it closely. The positive NAO forecast to come has me concerned about the pattern evolving, and it is these type of systems like this potential one that can traverse under a building A/B ridge in the coming days and pose another threat God Forbid! However, we are hitting the peak time of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin NOW, and Mother Nature is wasting no time catching up on that LONG summer slumber we had saw out there.

Summer Slumber? Wow, isn't that forgotten about now after what has and is still happening with Dorian!!

[AtlanticWind]

Convection waning ,see what happens at DMax

[watsx2]

What is the name of the orange disturbance? All these 90L's......is there a trick to know which is which?

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[Stormi]

What is the name of the orange disturbance? All these 90L's......is there a trick to know which is which?

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The orange-colored disturbance on the map is 94L. The NHC color-codes any disturbances/invests with less than 40% formation potential within 5 days in yellow, between 40% - 60% in orange, and greater than 60% in red.

[northjaxpro]

Convection waning ,see what happens at DMax

Convection indeed re-firing at DMAX. Just checked the wind shear analysis across the North Atlantic basin and right now only 5-10 knots of shear being shown in the region east of the Lesser Antilles where this Tropical Wave is now. It is in a rather conducive area to spin up at the current time and if convection can continue to maintain or build up.more, we just may have our next invest classified here in this area tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

The estimated position of the 1014 mb Low according to NHC is 17 N 56.0 W. per 2: a.m. TWO.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro develops and GFS hinting at development near Florida. Euro sends this into the GOM

[GCANE]

Wave interacting on the SW side of Gabrielle's UL winds.
Setups like this can take many people by suprise.
Need to analyze and watch this one closely.
Could be a fast spin up.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[northjaxpro]

This has been a concern to me ever since NHC put a 10% number on it past couple of days.

This indeed could spin up quickly and unfortunately pose problems to the Bahamas, where God forbid they do not need , and possibly to Florida next week Have to watch it closely!!

EURO develops it over the NW Bahamas for Heaven's sake :

[SFLcane]

This area was dropped from NHC TWO models aren’t doing much with it.

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds looks to be favorable all the way to the Bahamas and Florida. I certainly would keep an eye on this system.

[GCANE]

Basically has a whole week to brew in the Bahamas.
Wondering what's slowing this down so much.

[northjaxpro]

Ideal set-up with light shear that's for sure. The only thing to hinder development would be dry air possibly, but I do not see anything to keep this wave from developing short term. This area must be monitored closely.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont see any thing coming from area look alot shear now over area if look sat pic you clould getting pull too ne and sw