ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

One of the weather stations in Halifax is now gusting to 76 mph. Hurricane force gusts have arrived there.

[CrazyC83]

And for that matter, what is a sting jet?

Yeah I would like to know the answer to this question too, if this isn’t too hard to answer. I have a bad feeling I won’t understand the jargon in all the papers that will come up in my search results.

I believe it involves the dynamics of very strong extratropical or semi-extratropical cyclones where the air comes together near (usually south of) the center with a warm seclusion also taking place there. It normally requires a pressure around 950 or lower. Sandy also had one at a time when it was offshore.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

And for that matter, what is a sting jet?

I know a sting jet became embedded in Arthur back in 2014. That is why places as far inland as Houlton in Maine had 75 mph peak wind gusts.

Back to category two. Nova Scotia is in bring trouble now. I'm thankful I'm not there. Please pray for them, everyone -

https://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com

[1900hurricane]

Now Extratropical in the 18Z best track update. The sting jet was a pretty good indication of that.

AL, 05, 2019090718, , BEST, 0, 428N, 646W, 85, 953, EX, 34, NEQ, 270, 240, 210, 170, 1007, 300, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090718, , BEST, 0, 428N, 646W, 85, 953, EX, 50, NEQ, 170, 150, 100, 90, 1007, 300, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090718, , BEST, 0, 428N, 646W, 85, 953, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 100, 90, 0, 1007, 300, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Now Extratropical in the 18Z best track update. The sting jet was a pretty good indication of that.

AL, 05, 2019090718, , BEST, 0, 428N, 646W, 85, 953, EX, 34, NEQ, 270, 240, 210, 170, 1007, 300, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090718, , BEST, 0, 428N, 646W, 85, 953, EX, 50, NEQ, 170, 150, 100, 90, 1007, 300, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 05, 2019090718, , BEST, 0, 428N, 646W, 85, 953, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 100, 90, 0, 1007, 300, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

That and you can see on IR satellite images Dorian has lost nearly all of the deep convection around his core.

[sikkar]

Dorian may pass directly over this buoy, should be interesting.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=M&tz=STN

[AnnularCane]

And for that matter, what is a sting jet?

Yeah I would like to know the answer to this question too, if this isn’t too hard to answer. I have a bad feeling I won’t understand the jargon in all the papers that will come up in my search results.

EDIT: there is a Wikipedia page on it. Apparently it has something to do with a cold front fracturing?...I didn’t even realize that was a thing that happened.

EDIT 2: oh wait the cold front fracturing is the whole warm seclusion thing...sorry for my complete ignorance of literally everything.

I used to think I knew everything about the weather...until I came here! But it's a good place to learn.

[CyclonicFury]

It's extremely rare to see a hurricane transition into an extratropical cyclone with 85+ knot winds. I wonder what the last one was.

[CrazyC83]

It's extremely rare to see a hurricane transition into an extratropical cyclone with 85+ knot winds. I wonder what the last one was.

I know Sandy reached 85 kt while in the process but weakened before becoming fully ET. That said, they aren't usually sampled well since they are in distant oceans most of the time.

[CrazyC83]

Osborne Head, just southeast of Halifax, now sustained 64 mph with gusts to 88 mph.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It's extremely rare to see a hurricane transition into an extratropical cyclone with 85+ knot winds. I wonder what the last one was.

Ginny 1963 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginny) or the Great New England Hurricane 1938 (https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome) spring to mind as possible candidates.

Or maybe the Nova Scotia Hurricane of 1927 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1927_Nova ... _hurricane).

[Vdogg]

It's extremely rare to see a hurricane transition into an extratropical cyclone with 85+ knot winds. I wonder what the last one was.

I’m gonna say probably Matthew. Transitioned to Extratropical off the Carolina coastal and expanded it’s wind field. We had 15 inches of rain from that storm in Va. Beach with winds gusting to 90 mph.

[sikkar]

Is that the remnants of the eye wall just south of Lunenburg?
https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xgo

[CrazyC83]

Is that the remnants of the eye wall just south of Lunenburg?
https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xgo

That is indeed correct. Probably will make landfall near Halifax.

[cainjamin]

 https://twitter.com/uptownalexbrown/status/1170424322839781376




This is in Halifax.

[gfsperpendicular]

So is Dorian completely extratropical by now? There's still a bit of convection lingering around the core and new convection keeps popping up briefly. Did he reach cat 2 again while tropical?

[PavelGaborik10]

Is that the remnants of the eye wall just south of Lunenburg?
https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xgo

That is indeed correct. Probably will make landfall near Halifax.

Looks like it's going to go East of Halifax unless it starts getting tugged now.

[CrazyC83]

So is Dorian completely extratropical by now? There's still a bit of convection lingering around the core and new convection keeps popping up briefly. Did he reach cat 2 again while tropical?

It seems like a hybrid right now, more extratropical than tropical but I'm not seeing any obvious frontal features. I'd personally consider it a hurricane right now, but it should be fully ET soon.

[PavelGaborik10]

About 500+ KM away from the center of Dorian and am currently experiencing wind gusts of around 65 MPH already. Definitely overperforming thus far.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

So is Dorian completely extratropical by now? There's still a bit of convection lingering around the core and new convection keeps popping up briefly. Did he reach cat 2 again while tropical?

I'd say he is stubbornly hanging on to his subtropical (or hybrid) status.