Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 27.4N 92.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.1N 93.3W 1005 28

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC is also a bit stronger with a sfc low in the E central GOM moving NW at hour 96.

[Nimbus]

They probably didn't want to panic anybody with an invest till it got further west. Does seem to be working its way down to the surface so maybe an invest will be declared when they can better guess the track.

[northjaxpro]

The camps so far at 12Z


12Z EURO and 12Z UKMET and 12Z GFS Legacy favor Western GOM solution at 12Z in 144 hours

12Z GFS and 12Z CMC favoring Eastern GOM solution in 126 hours

12Z ICON is showing off the East Coast of Florida, then up to off SC coast in 126 hours

[srainhoutx]

The camps so far at 12Z


12Z EURO and 12Z UKMET and 12Z GFS Legacy favor Western GOM solution at 12Z in 168 hours

12Z GFS and 12Z CMC favoring Eastern GOM solution in 126 hours

12Z ICON is showing off the East Coast of Florida up to off SC coast in 168 hours

The new GFS is losing a lot of creditability within the weather enterprise. This morning at NWA it was announced another parallel or attempt to 'fix' the GFS is coming soon. It likely will take another 2 years before see the next version of an Updated GFS fully operational.

[tpr1967]

I think the interaction with this mid-upper low will be key to how strong it gets. I think a system that gets sheared more and takes a longer time to form will track more west and a system that strengthens faster will be pulled further north.

[northjaxpro]

This sure looks like this is looking better than earlier today. Long overdue for the Invest tag. To me, it sure looks like a surface reflection on visible imagery isdeveloping near 22 N 72 W in the Southeastern Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

This sure looks like this is looking better than earlier today. Long overdue for the Invest tag. To me, it sure looks like a surface reflection on visible imagery is developing near 22 N 73 W in the Southeastern Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

This sure looks like this is looking better than earlier today. Long overdue for the Invest tag. To me, it sure looks like a surface reflection on visible imagery is developing near 22 N 73 W in the Southeastern Bahamas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_nwatl_201909101625.jpg

There is definitely a sharpening trough.

[Frank P]

The camps so far at 12Z


12Z EURO and 12Z UKMET and 12Z GFS Legacy favor Western GOM solution at 12Z in 144 hours

12Z GFS and 12Z CMC favoring Eastern GOM solution in 126 hours

12Z ICON is showing off the East Coast of Florida, then up to off SC coast in 126 hours

12Z CMC is NOLA/MS, and GFS is Mobile, not considered eastern GOM... more NGOM solutions..

[northjaxpro]

The camps so far at 12Z


12Z EURO and 12Z UKMET and 12Z GFS Legacy favor Western GOM solution at 12Z in 144 hours

12Z GFS and 12Z CMC favoring Eastern GOM solution in 126 hours

12Z ICON is showing off the East Coast of Florida, then up to off SC coast in 126 hours

12Z CMC is NOLA/MS, and GFS is Mobile, not considered eastern GOM... more NGOM solutions..

Well since you want to be technical, the CMC and GFS tracks goes through the Eastern GOM to the North Central Gulf for NOLA/MS and to Mobile respectively.

[NDG]

Nice weak mid level circulation developing along with the surface trough definitely becoming sharper. Is getting together faster than I thought earlier this morning.

[Frank P]

The camps so far at 12Z


12Z EURO and 12Z UKMET and 12Z GFS Legacy favor Western GOM solution at 12Z in 144 hours

12Z GFS and 12Z CMC favoring Eastern GOM solution in 126 hours

12Z ICON is showing off the East Coast of Florida, then up to off SC coast in 126 hours

12Z CMC is NOLA/MS, and GFS is Mobile, not considered eastern GOM... more NGOM solutions..

Well since you want to be technical, the CMC and GFS tracks goes through the Eastern GOM to the North Central Gulf for NOLA/MS and to Mobile respectively.

its my 25 years of rocket testing experience!

[northjaxpro]

12Z CMC is NOLA/MS, and GFS is Mobile, not considered eastern GOM... more NGOM solutions..

Well since you want to be technical, the CMC and GFS tracks goes through the Eastern GOM to the North Central Gulf for NOLA/MS and to Mobile respectively.

its my 25 years of rocket testing experience!

LOL.. I understand Frank! It is keeping you still focused I must say to you!

[northjaxpro]

Nice weak mid level circulation developing along with the surface trough definitely becoming sharper. Is getting together faster than I thought earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/O85V3Ly.gif

Yeah , that is definitely the developing surface reflection soon NDG. Probably already at the surface. Reasonably close to my earlier estimation.

[Dean4Storms]

Hope I can get in my round of 18 holes Sunday morning in South Walton @ Santa Rosa Bch. Golf Club. I suspect that no matter what we will be on the wet and sloppy side of this in the FL Panhandle. Surprised to see the better org. this morning already.

[ronjon]

Picking up more model support - with SAT presentation should be tagged an INVEST soon. I'd also expect NHC outlook chances increasing in the 5 day TWO.

[northjaxpro]

Hope I can get in my round of 18 holes Sunday morning in South Walton @ Santa Rosa Bch. Golf Club. I suspect that no matter what we will be on the wet and sloppy side of this in the FL Panhandle. Surprised to see the better org. this morning already.

I am not surprised. I have had a un-nerving feelng about this storm ramping up quicker than the models initially had it modeling from the beginning. It definitely is much better organized than earlier today.

This area of the Atlantic basin around the Bahamas I swear is like rocket fuel to these cyclones. They just wait for a match to light up the fuel reserve so to speak.....................

[jlauderdal]

Picking up more model support - with SAT presentation should be tagged an INVEST soon. I'd also expect NHC outlook chances increasing in the 5 day TWO.

we might get a mandarin today

[SoupBone]

Quicker the organization, typically favors the more eastern solutions. Interesting peak season days ahead.