Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[TallyTracker]

The only thing the longer range models are remotely good at is looking at large-scale conditions. Specific storm intensities and tracks are garbage two weeks out. What the GFS and Euro show me is that conditions should be favorable for a hurricane in the Caribbean and Bahamas some time within the next two weeks.

Except like you said, we don't even know if it will be anywhere near those areas two weeks from now. It won't matter if conditions are favorable there if the storm is recurving out to sea. We can hope that is the case...

I agree completely. So often we see excellent conditions in the tropics with no organized system to take advantage. I have no interest in seeing a hurricane in the Bahamas, Caribbean or Gulf. Dorian stirred up PTSD from Michael again.

[ronjon]

Strange how in the past few years there haven't been many storms that simply recurved in the Western Atlantic without some weird ridging setup preventing it from happening.

Yeah off topic but if you look at the historical tracks in the 1940s something similar happened during the last AMO warm phase. Alot of MDR storms struck the Florida peninsula heading W-NW from the deep tropics.

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2019_06_20_at_12_24_16_PM.png

[Blown Away]

GFS/EURO trending farther W nearing/crossing 80W before the recurve...

[SouthFLTropics]

This 12z GFS run looks like it may be a clear cut recurve away from Florida...SE Bahamas looks to be affected though.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The GFS needs to relax with this run.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1171818435673821184

[USTropics]

The models always have a decrease in skill when in relation to timing/placement of upper-level features after a Rosby wave enhancement from WPAC typhoons, and you can see that in past 4 runs of the GFS operational:

[SouthFLTropics]

The 12z GFS and GFS Legacy couldn't be more opposite. GFS spins up a system and takes it North through the Bahamas while Legacy keeps the system week and takes it towards the Yucatan.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC at hour 204 looks like it's headed to Gitmo.

[Blown Away]

Joe B will like 12z GFS b/c it landfalls a hurricane in the NE CONUS. No recurve, buries it into Canada.

[toad strangler]

0Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z CMC all very similar positions at 240 hrs

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS/CMC/Euro suggesting possible South Florida hit from the south or at least a cyclone in vicinity in the long-range. From the south is how South Florida gets hit typically. Plenty of time to watch as the pattern is complex.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS members mainly OTS from the CONUS but at least 3 of 21 members in GOM

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward
during the next several days. Environmental conditions may become
more favorable for development as the system approaches the Lesser
Antilles from late this weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z GEFS members mainly OTS from the CONUS but at least 3 of 21 members in GOM

Earlier GEFS has been OTS as well...well East of the operational run.

[canes92]

This gets your attention:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019091106/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_58.png

No way. We don't need that. At least it's 10 days out so anything will change anyway.

[canes92]

Long range overnight EURO with a strengthening hurricane in the SE Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/5uxyK4i.png

Which direction does the Euro have it going?

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]