ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Kermit VDM
25.60N 74.75W
1008mb

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the E (90°) from the flight level center at 23:10:28Z

[psyclone]

Our system should be name worthy soon.

[NDG]

The reason why TD 9 keeps losing its convection, it is still getting westerly dry shear between h40 & h25.
Euro shows this changing by tomorrow thus start with a better organization by then.
Recon shows a westerly heading, might still be rotating around a larger circulation to the south.

[Kazmit]

Shear looks like it's decreasing.

[Aric Dunn]

The reason why TD 9 keeps loosing its convection, it is still getting westerly dry shear between h40 & h25.
Euro shows this changing by tomorrow thus start with a better organization by then.
Recon shows a westerly heading, might still be rotating around a larger circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/hlYTWHI.gif

This rotating around .. will likely cause problems..

[tgenius]

The reason why TD 9 keeps loosing its convection, it is still getting westerly dry shear between h40 & h25.
Euro shows this changing by tomorrow thus start with a better organization by then.
Recon shows a westerly heading, might still be rotating around a larger circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/hlYTWHI.gif

This rotating around .. will likely cause problems..

Aric what kind of problems?

[Aric Dunn]

The reason why TD 9 keeps loosing its convection, it is still getting westerly dry shear between h40 & h25.
Euro shows this changing by tomorrow thus start with a better organization by then.
Recon shows a westerly heading, might still be rotating around a larger circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/hlYTWHI.gif

This rotating around .. will likely cause problems..

Aric what kind of problems?

Check the 12z models and where it should be 12.. 24hrs later..

This lack of motion has brought us to this point we are at. The models have shifted because they keep expecting it to move distinctly right away. And it has not. And it appears it is still not moving forward.

Part of the weakness is due to td9 moving forward..

Long story short. If it does not move in the next 6 hours it will miss even the 18z model positions.

Since timing is everything. This would lead to the loop or stall scenario pointed out by many of the ensemble members.

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro is already really showing this issue. Stalls meanders moves ese. Through 90 hours ne of the Bahamas.

The longer it waits the more we see loops and stall etc.

[Hurricaneman]

18z euro is already really showing this issue. Stalls meanders moves ese. Through 90 hours ne of the Bahamas.

The longer it waits the more we see loops and stall etc.

Based on this I wouldn’t take Florida off the hook until it’s safely away but would still be a problem for the Bahamas

[Ken711]

Levi Cowan's latest take this evening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PhzbYVuwSU

[shortwave1]

The reason why TD 9 keeps loosing its convection, it is still getting westerly dry shear between h40 & h25.
Euro shows this changing by tomorrow thus start with a better organization by then.
Recon shows a westerly heading, might still be rotating around a larger circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/hlYTWHI.gif

Spot on. Upper high slightly displaced to the southeast along with continued westerly shear not allowing convection to build and maintain over llc

[eastcoastFL]

Whatever that blob in the gulf is it almost looks as good as td9

[Kazmit]

Whatever that blob in the gulf is it almost looks as good as td9

That's an upper level low.

[eastcoastFL]

Whatever that blob in the gulf is it almost looks as good as td9

That's an upper level low.

Could the ULL pull it west?

[jasons2k]

Whatever that blob in the gulf is it almost looks as good as td9

That's an upper level low.

Could the ULL pull it west?

It was supposed to in the beginning; that's why originally we thought this was going to be a Gulf system. But the ULL is pulling away and TD 9 is just sitting there.

As Aric mentioned, timing is everything. If it just sits there then it may not find the weakness, and stall.

[mlfreeman]

What's with the green "pimple" of 5% wind speed chances sticking into the gulf?
Why might the NHC have done that?

[storm4u]

Tropical storm now!

[cycloneye]

Read the 11 PM advisory on newly formed Tropical Storm Humberto on the Advisories thread

[CronkPSU]

Tropical storm now!

but they are more confident in their forecast staying offshore and cancelled tropical storm watches on the coast

[tgenius]

So even the TS watches dropped off now at 11pm. So odd for a stalling system.