Disturbed weather in GOM (Is INVEST 98L)

[Rgv20]

Is better to post the TCPOD with the code so all the missions can be seen clearly.

Code: Select all

 2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 15/2000Z                   A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 15/1830Z                   C. 16/0945Z
       D. 25.0N 94.5W                D. 26.0N 96.0W
       E. 15/1930Z TO 15/2330Z       E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES INTO HUMBERTO WHILE SYSTEM
          REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO SUSPECT AREA IN WESTERN
          GULF OF MEXICO IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

Looks like the NHC thinks something can get going just east of Brownsville by Monday morning.

[Cpv17]

The latest 12z Euro doesn’t look very promising. 0z run was way better.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

The latest 12z Euro doesn’t look very promising. 0z run was way better.

Now casting time.

[GCANE]

Starting to close off 850mb vort

[Cpv17]

Starting to close off 850mb vort

https://i.imgur.com/rY2pj1zg.png

https://i.imgur.com/fHSA4kV.png

Interesting. Vorticity increasing.

[Steve]

It’s mostly out of NAM 3km range but you see the weak rotation.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91418&fh=0

At 12km, you can sort of see that TS look (a skeleton of one) inland in TX at the end.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1418&fh=14

32km (which is the worst resolution) gives you the hint of maybe an almost TD
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1418&fh=84

Message with it is that although it doesn’t have it doing that much, storms hitting Texas usually tighten. Icon should be out soon

[GCANE]

ULL is weakening

[lrak]

This thread just made my day. Corpus Christi is about 6 inches below normal but the last Invest that past south of us gave some decent rains. Lawn is nice and green. You can tell that the trees and shrubs though need a soaking.

Forgot to ask, does anyone know why the Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite website is stuck on Friday the 13th?

[SoupBone]

ULL is weakening

What effect would that have? It looks like a massive wave right now, but not much else. And where is everyone? No one cares about this one.

Not even Aric Dunn!

[PTrackerLA]

We could use the rain here as well but don't look to get much from system. First time all summer I've had to take out the sprinkler but the grass is turning brown and shrubs wilting. After 30+ inches of rain June through late August we haven't had a drop in over 2 weeks with high temps every day.

[cycloneye]

A large area of cloudiness and showers over the eastern and central
Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak
surface trough. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move inland
along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday and
further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SoupBone]

A large area of cloudiness and showers over the eastern and central
Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak
surface trough. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move inland
along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday and
further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Interesting, they lowered it by 10%. No real model support beyond the ICON.

[SoupBone]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1173031509755932673

[CYCLONE MIKE]

https://media.giphy.com/media/11R5KYi6ZdP8Z2/giphy.gif

Nothing to talk about. Just some unorganized convection that has real no model support. Next.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1173031509755932673

If you read the rest of his tweets, he's basically unconcerned. And Houston would get some rain this week.

[stormlover2013]

https://media.giphy.com/media/11R5KYi6ZdP8Z2/giphy.gif

Nothing to talk about. Just some unorganized convection that has real no model support. Next.

Prob will just be rain but u can’t say that when it’s on the gom

[SoupBone]

https://media.giphy.com/media/11R5KYi6ZdP8Z2/giphy.gif

Nothing to talk about. Just some unorganized convection that has real no model support. Next.

It's still a tropical system traversing the GoM in mid-September, it's not exactly a nothing burger.

[mpic]

Finally! Forgot all about "Talkin' Tropics". Looking everywhere for a thread on this.

[lrak]

The last visible satellite shows a nice rotation just NE of the Yucatan Peninsula and now the IR is really starting to pop? Forgot to look at the shear...looks to be on eeh side? Is the MLL helping this thing and thats why it's got the NHC attention? A few questions after a nice evening.