ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds the windshift SE of last fix, pressure is higher.

https://i.imgur.com/edyjFgv.png

It wont be too much longer until the center in the convection takes over. Always takes a little time.

[Steve H.]

Center reformation doesn't happen on a whim, so I'm not convinced yet either. But one thing is for sure, the shear has slackened way off, and if it can get its act together it should strengthen considerably.

[SFLcane]

Fewer models showing any significant westward turn than yesterday - apparently enough of a trough ahead of the next high to kick out both Jerry and Karen...

Could be indeed the case...might just loop and head out to sea.

[SFLcane]

More then likely it's a strung out mess in southerly flow like every model shows.

[Fountainguy97]

Radar pretty much confirms the center is reorganizing south in the convection. You can clearly see the wind shift on velocity scans as the center wraps up under convection.

[GCANE]

SE

[NDG]

So what I take out of the latest pass by the recon is that the COC is elongated SW to NE, where they found the wind shift now having the same surface pressure of where the MLC is. So the old LLC is weakening and definitely a new LLC is reforming further south closer to the MLC.
IMO.

[NDG]

One thing that has helped Karen survive yesterday's strong NE shear and dry air is that the low level easterly jet is non existent right now across the Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

[SoupBone]

So what I take out of the latest pass by the recon is that the COC is elongated SW to NE, where they found the wind shift now having the same surface pressure of where the MLC is. So the old LLC is weakening and definitely a new LLC is reforming further south closer to the MLC.
IMO.

Wouldn't a SE reformation mean the possibility of tracking more over Puerto Rico than before?

[NDG]

So what I take out of the latest pass by the recon is that the COC is elongated SW to NE, where they found the wind shift now having the same surface pressure of where the MLC is. So the old LLC is weakening and definitely a new LLC is reforming further south closer to the MLC.
IMO.

Wouldn't a SE reformation mean the possibility of tracking more over Puerto Rico than before?

Actually the reformation we are looking at is further south not SE so yes a track more over P.R. which could disrupt it.

[SFLcane]

That's my interpretation of it.

[WeatherEmperor]

Quick question. Would a center reformation further south also mean the track north would also be slower and reduce the potential interaction with Jerry....leading to a more westward track like what the Euro is showing?

[chris_fit]

https://i.ibb.co/k438PLr/20190924-084507.gif

I don't think your pictures show properly... they are very small and not clickable - at least for me, using Chrome.

[SFLcane]

Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.

[AubreyStorm]

Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.

[NDG]

Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.

Wrong, nothing but NNW & NW winds on the west side, no SW winds yet.

[Nuno]

Quick question. Would a center reformation further south also mean the track north would also be slower and reduce the potential interaction with Jerry....leading to a more westward track like what the Euro is showing?

Potentially, but there's still Puerto Rico to interact with which could also disrupt Karen's circulation and present issues in the short term.

[GCANE]

That's my interpretation of it.

https://i.imgur.com/EUNX2Zw.jpg

Looking how the feeder band is evolving, I think this may be correct.

[SFLcane]

Winds from the SW on the west side...That's a no on center reformation.

Wrong, nothing but NNW & NW winds on the west side, no SW winds yet.

From what i can tell the winds show no sign of the center re-forming