Texas Fall 2019

[starsfan65]

I'm really starting to think we're going to need a Nuri caliber event to change the pattern. The RIDGE OF DEATH this year is in some ways, comparable to 2011.

This hot weather needs to stop now!!

[Brent]

Dallas is hosting the NHL Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl on Jan 1. I'm starting to worry about it.

will it cool off by then?

[CaptinCrunch]

Dallas is hosting the NHL Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl on Jan 1. I'm starting to worry about it.

Outdoor Hockey in Texas is a joke, better move to AT&T Stadium, I'm sure Jerry wouldn't mind.

[CaptinCrunch]

Dallas is hosting the NHL Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl on Jan 1. I'm starting to worry about it.

will it cool off by then?

Just because it's Texas it will be the only cold week we get and it will probably snow or an ice storm

[bubba hotep]

Breaking News!! The 12z Euro ends the summer siege on DFW and only shows a high of 89F on 10/6

[Brent]

Breaking News!! The 12z Euro ends the summer siege on DFW and only shows a high of 89F on 10/6

Break out the coats!

[weatherdude1108]

Dallas is hosting the NHL Winter Classic in the Cotton Bowl on Jan 1. I'm starting to worry about it.

will it cool off by then?

Just because it's Texas it will be the only cold week we get and it will probably snow or an ice storm

Then after the ice storm, it'll hit 90 for a week.

[Brent]

Fwd's AFD is grim

Maybe some month it'll be normal temps around here

The once much-ballyhooed cold front that was being advertised for
later in the week is looking less impressive now with the latest
ensemble means showing little change in our mid-upper level longwave
pattern. Yes, a few areas north of I-20 could see a shallow and
weak backdoor cool front toward the end of next week, but strong
insolation and subsidence underneath the stagnant mid level ridge
will likely mitigate any chance for substantial cooling across the
area for the foreseeable future. About the only thing it may
provide is some low convective rain chances across our northern
tier counties. Until this stagnant longwave pattern shifts or at
least deamplifies latitudinally, more of the same weather we`ve
seen the past month can be expected into the first half of
October.

[rwfromkansas]

I didn't really care about September's heat because June was nice.

But, I am starting to care now. This looks to be a miserable October with the cold front fizzling...again.

What would it take to get this ridge to move? I don't understand how they can just sit there and nothing can ever displace them.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I didn't really care about September's heat because June was nice.

But, I am starting to care now. This looks to be a miserable October with the cold front fizzling...again.

What would it take to get this ridge to move? I don't understand how they can just sit there and nothing can ever displace them.

Seriously though. I try and not get too emotional about the weather but this pattern is getting to be anger inducing.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm getting immune to this bad news, even though there could be some rain. But I keep hearing the sad violin.

We need to all band together and go to war with this Ridge of Death! Hmmm

Sad Violin - MLG Sound Effects (HD)
https://youtu.be/7ODcC5z6Ca0


000
FXUS64 KEWX 262029
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
329 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...Mid-level synoptic
pattern shows a broad 500mb ridge over the SE U.S. and Eastern Gulf
of Mexico with a closed low pressure area over the SW Deserts.
Models weaken the low as it opens up into a trough and tracks across
New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday morning. In
response, southerly flow and atmospheric moisture will be on the
increase with best moisture advection expected along and east of the
I-35 corridor.

Sufficient Gulf moisture and daytime heating are currently igniting
a few showers over Maverick and Kinney counties. A few thunderstorms
are possible and with this activity just beginning to develop, and a
few storms may linger over the western counties through or just
after sunset. After these showers and storms dissipate, the rest of
the night should be rain-free with only an increase in a stratus
layer as low-level moisture increases. Morning cloudiness should
begin mixing out as southerly winds increase leading to a mostly/
partly cloudy day. A few showers in the offing later in the
afternoon as the Gulf moisture deepens with southerly flow
increasing. Best chance for rain remains over the eastern portion of
the CWA and well east of the I-35 corridor. Cannot rule out a stray
shower moving into the SAT or AUS metro area but significant
rainfall is not anticipated at this time. Also, another round of
showers or thunderstorms could develop over the far western counties
as some deeper moisture lingers along the Rio Grande. As the Gulf
moisture continues to increase, showers developing over the Gulf may
move into the eastern counties after midnight Friday.

Temperatures look to remain near to slightly above normal with the
region remaining under the influence of mid-level high pressure and
steady southerly flow. Tonight`s lows will be fairly comfortable
with most clear skies until after midnight. Friday`s highs may be a
a degree or two lower than today with the added moisture, especially
in the east. Highs still ranging from the lower 90s in the east and
over the Hill Country with mid to upper 90s over the SAT/AUS metro
area and Rio Grande Plains. Friday night will see slightly warmer
lows and more humid conditions with the anticipated increase of
Gulf moisture.


&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...For this weekend and on into
Monday, enough moisture should be able to stream in periodically
(with source regions more based in the Gulf of Mexico for eastern
areas and the monsoonal plume out west) around the western side of
the subtropical high for decent rain chances (30-40%) daily. Overall,
though, lack of significant forcing and the gradual westward
expansion of the ridge should keep areal coverage limited. For this
reason, have generally gone a tad below blended guidance with PoP`s
for this period. For temperatures, the influence of the ridge will
keep hot conditions going, with afternoon highs running about 4-8
degrees F above average for the end of September. With continued SE
surface flow, dewpoints also progged to remain in the upper 60s-lower
70s, even during the afternoons. This yields heat indices topping
out in the 100-105F range, except a few degrees lower in the
northwestern tier of counties.

For the Tuesday through next Thursday period (first three days of
October), the mid/upper-level high elongates into a SW-NE orientation
as a deep NW CONUS trough progresses a bit; however, the ridge axis
stays very close by. Daytime temps nudge up a bit, but mixdown of
drier air aloft should allow afternoon dewpoints to drop into the 60s
pretty much everywhere, with heat index values staying mainly below
100F. Have limited rain chances to slight (at best) during this
period with model time-heights indicating much drier air aloft in
association with the ridge axis.

Toward the end of the period (next Thursday-ish), a mid-level
inverted trough is progged to move into the western Gulf of Mexico,
though both the GFS and ECMWF hold the ridging strong locally. Both
models also not showing much hope of that possible cold front
reaching South Central Texas, as both models move it into the
Panhandle but not much farther.

[Brent]

I didn't really care about September's heat because June was nice.

But, I am starting to care now. This looks to be a miserable October with the cold front fizzling...again.

What would it take to get this ridge to move? I don't understand how they can just sit there and nothing can ever displace them.

yeah I'll be honest I haven't hated September really, but like its time for things to change now

[starsfan65]

HEAT MISER!!!!!!!

[BrokenGlass]

I didn't really care about September's heat because June was nice.

But, I am starting to care now. This looks to be a miserable October with the cold front fizzling...again.

What would it take to get this ridge to move? I don't understand how they can just sit there and nothing can ever displace them.

yeah I'll be honest I haven't hated September really, but like its time for things to change now

I was looking at my weather station data earlier today - for the ENTIRE MONTH of September, it has been below 70 for about 2 1/2 hours, early morning on Sep 1.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Brent]

I didn't really care about September's heat because June was nice.

But, I am starting to care now. This looks to be a miserable October with the cold front fizzling...again.

What would it take to get this ridge to move? I don't understand how they can just sit there and nothing can ever displace them.

yeah I'll be honest I haven't hated September really, but like its time for things to change now

I was looking at my weather station data earlier today - for the ENTIRE MONTH of September, it has been below 70 for about 2 1/2 hours, early morning on Sep 1.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

yeah I don't think DFW even went below 70 all month, crazy, more like summer than September... most Septembers have gone below 60 at least once

[bubba hotep]

I didn't really care about September's heat because June was nice.

But, I am starting to care now. This looks to be a miserable October with the cold front fizzling...again.

What would it take to get this ridge to move? I don't understand how they can just sit there and nothing can ever displace them.

yeah I'll be honest I haven't hated September really, but like its time for things to change now

I've gotten whipped by the Heat when trying to long range forecast for Winter the last few years. However, I was defeated but I'm not one to give up lol

After doing some digging and I can see the cold, esp. EPO driven. The question will be do we see another winter dominated by lower heights across the Great Lakes? That has plagued us recently and every decent cold shot was from a positive tilted trough. We need some cutoffs or negative tilts with cold air over the top. More to come, good news? Probably not

[bubba hotep]

Newest Euro Weeklies have above avg temps locked in for all of Texas into November. Maybe a return to normal precipitation by mid-Oct?

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile 2-3 FEET of snow in Cut Bank, Montana and 1-2 feet in the lower valleys. They are going right back to where they left off in February.

[starsfan65]

Newest Euro Weeklies have above avg temps locked in for all of Texas into November. Maybe a return to normal precipitation by mid-Oct?

are you serious?

[bubba hotep]

Newest Euro Weeklies have above avg temps locked in for all of Texas into November. Maybe a return to normal precipitation by mid-Oct?

are you serious?

Yes. However, the Weeklies have been trash over the last few months. You can basically take the 12z Euro EPS run from that day and extend the pattern out for 6 weeks and will give you the upcoming Weeklies run.