ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

This is basically an EPAC esque strong Cat 4.

so 125 kt then, right?

[somethingfunny]

I'd like to see a rounder eye and a bit more of a thick doughnut appearance in the CDO before I would upgrade to a Cat5. It's a great looking Cat4 no doubt

[Kingarabian]

Ya you guys feel our pain with these satellite estimates lol.

[StruThiO]

They maintained 125 kt

[Kingarabian]

For satellite estimates, it has some work to do to get to Cat.5 status.

[Kazmit]

When is recon supposed to get in there? They'll have probably missed the peak by then.

[hurricanes1234]

I believe it's not until this afternoon. Satellite appearance looks to have degraded somewhat overnight, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's not as strong as last night by the time they fly into it.

[northjaxpro]

They plan to fly Recon out to Lorenzo beginning at 12Z today


It is possible they will.miss Lorenzo at his peak intensity. I hope not. But we shall see.

[hurricanes1234]

I have a feeling this may have already happened. The overall structure is more ragged than last night and outflow isn't great on the western side. Also the cloud tops around the eye look a little less organised compared to last night.

The NHC mentions the possibility of moderate shear affecting it today.

[Chris90]

Making a move to the N, may be a wobble though

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d90a151ddac8990c244116db9c17c60c9ef0a34f56dd18ad22e1f93a8ffaaf9.gif

Is the rainbow IR imagery on your site new? I don't remember seeing it before. I haven't been paying much attention to the tropics since Dorian though due to life requiring attention in other areas. All I know is that I'm thrilled to see this, as the rainbow imagery is my favorite and I thought I was going to have to live without a good source for it. You've made my day by adding that to your site.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like it has peaked. Cloud tops warming on the north side and the eye is cooling. There is an outside chance it makes another run later today as SSTs increase, but I think it was stronger last night. Still an incredibly powerful and large hurricane.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like a pretty pronounced westward wobble, although it's probably just that (edge of the ridge probably doesn't make a smooth WNW-NW-N curve).

[Highteeld]

The difference between eye temp and CDO temp (via ADT) right now is 88.66ºC, which is getting up there. An 89-90ºC difference is usually a pretty good indication of a potential category 5 in the western hemisphere. In fact, since 2003, only one western hemisphere system has ever surpassed the 90ºC difference between the two and not been rated a category 5: Hurricane Barbara earlier this year (93.14ºC difference). Dorian maxed out at an 89.52ºC differential, and the biggest was from Haiyan '13 with a 106.06ºC, just for reference.

https://i.imgur.com/7MB1ezh.png

If you plotted those points on a bell curve, it would be pretty fascinating.

[NotSparta]

Making a move to the N, may be a wobble though

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d90a151ddac8990c244116db9c17c60c9ef0a34f56dd18ad22e1f93a8ffaaf9.gif

Is the rainbow IR imagery on your site new? I don't remember seeing it before. I haven't been paying much attention to the tropics since Dorian though due to life requiring attention in other areas. All I know is that I'm thrilled to see this, as the rainbow imagery is my favorite and I thought I was going to have to live without a good source for it. You've made my day by adding that to your site.

Yes, just added it yesterday

[wx98]

Lorenzo is looking a little ragged on IR this morning. No doubt still a Cat 4 but the shot at Cat 5 is gone...

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like Lorezno peaked and is back on the down swing now. Guess we will have to wait to see what they do in the postseason analysis. I suspect an upgrade to 130kts peak is fairly likely. Slimmer shot at 135kts. Chances at be upgraded to Cat 5 are 0% IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

Yeah it's weakening now. I guess we'll never really know its true peak.

[Kazmit]

Yeah it probably peaked at 150-155mph. I do think they’ll raise it to 150mph post-season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lorenzo was probably a tad stronger than the NHC estimated (130 knots is my guess) but it failed to make that perfectly symmetrical CDO on all quads that would give it that ADT T7.0 score we were waiting for.

[BYG Jacob]

That would be closer to T7.5 if the white ring can thicken since there is plenty of CMG and a warm eye. Even a dot of CDG in there.

what does CMG and CDG mean?

Cold medium gray (second coldest cloud top color, there's a lot of it) and cold dark gray (coldest cloud top, a pixel or two has popped up occasionally). For reference, if there was a solid CDG ring we'd have an easy T8.0.

IIRC the only easy T8.0 in recent times were Haiyan and Patricia right?