WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

I realize this is a pipe dream since there is a struggle to keep the one NEXRAD on Guam operating normally sometimes (what a debacle with Yutu that was last year), but I really wish there could be a second NEXRAD on Saipan. That would really extend Mariana radar coverage.

I second that statement. Btw, what's the max range of this kind of radar. Some of radars used by CMA can cover 460 kms

About the same. Normal 0.50º base reflectivity extends out to 124 nm (230 km) with very good quality (although obviously better closer to the radar site), but returns are possible beyond that with taller storms (since the beam starts to get pretty high) up to 248 nm (460 km). Okinawa also has a NEXRAD and South Korea has two of them as well.

[Highteeld]

I mean, I suppose you can make an argument for White embedded in White or Cold Medium Grey... either way, I think we are at the point where "Eye Pattern" is appropriate.

Would theoretically be an instantaneous T 5.5, or 102 knots, if I'm not mistakin'.

[mrbagyo]

I realize this is a pipe dream since there is a struggle to keep the one NEXRAD on Guam operating normally sometimes (what a debacle with Yutu that was last year), but I really wish there could be a second NEXRAD on Saipan. That would really extend Mariana radar coverage.

I second that statement. Btw, what's the max range of this kind of radar. Some of radars used by CMA can cover 460 kms

About the same. Normal 0.50º base reflectivity extends out to 124 nm (230 km) with very good quality (although obviously better closer to the radar site), but returns are possible beyond that with taller storms (since the beam starts to get pretty high) up to 248 nm (460 km). Okinawa also has a NEXRAD and South Korea has two of them as well.

Thanks

[Highteeld]

I know I am repeating the sentiments of others, and probably sound like a broken record myself, but dear lord this thing is getting its act together at just an absurdly fast rate.

[Ptarmigan]

Actually UK goes as low as 873 mb. Don't thank me.

WP, 20, 2019100612, 03, UKM, 114, 252N, 1335E, 109, 873, TY, 34, NEQ, 258, 235, 214, 252, , , 32, , , W, , , , , HAGIBIS, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

That is within Patricia or Tip territory.

[1900hurricane]

I mean, Emanuel's MPI is >200 kt/<850 mb and it has basically perfect conditions. This is kinda nuts.

[Highteeld]

I mean, Emanuel's MPI is >200 kt/<850 mb and it has basically perfect conditions. This is kinda nuts.

This was an invest yesterday morning, right?

[1900hurricane]

I mean, Emanuel's MPI is >200 kt/<850 mb and it has basically perfect conditions. This is kinda nuts.

This was an invest yesterday morning, right?

Heh, it almost feels like it, but not quite. It's almost 00Z now, and it got named 18Z yesterday (1 pm CDT), so that's just 30 hours from becoming a TS to what it's doing now. JTWC maintained it as a TD for 12 hours prior to it being classified as a TS, which happened at the same time (18Z October 5th) JMA named it.

[Highteeld]

Subtle warming going on in the eye. Some Black pixels likely to break through on Dvorak soon.

[Highteeld]

I mean, Emanuel's MPI is >200 kt/<850 mb and it has basically perfect conditions. This is kinda nuts.

This was an invest yesterday morning, right?

Heh, it almost feels like it, but not quite. It's almost 00Z now, and it got named 18Z yesterday (1 pm CDT), so that's just 30 hours from becoming a TS to what it's doing now. JTWC maintained it as a TD for 12 hours prior to it being classified as a TS, which happened at the same time (18Z October 5th) JMA named it.

Figures. Never seen a storm develop at such a vigorous pace, which is throwing my sense of time off LOL.

[Highteeld]

Subtle warming going on in the eye. Some Black pixels likely to break through on Dvorak soon.

https://i.imgur.com/dUVj0hc.png

Wasting no time in typical "Hagibis" fashion.

[1900hurricane]

This was an invest yesterday morning, right?

Heh, it almost feels like it, but not quite. It's almost 00Z now, and it got named 18Z yesterday (1 pm CDT), so that's just 30 hours from becoming a TS to what it's doing now. JTWC maintained it as a TD for 12 hours prior to it being classified as a TS, which happened at the same time (18Z October 5th) JMA named it.

Figures. Never seen a storm develop at such a vigorous pace, which is throwing my sense of time off LOL.

Technically if you use only CDT, it became a JTWC TD at 1 am yesterday, so you could still salvage a win. All about data framing.

[1900hurricane]

I'm going to be so sad when JTWC goes like 80 kt at 00Z.

[Highteeld]

Last hour and a half:

[mrbagyo]

You don't see this often from the conservative JMA model.

[Highteeld]

Focused in on the eye here:

[Cunxi Huang]

ok so 00Z SATCON and AMSU are suggesting 961 mb and 941 mb respectively, I would say Hagibis is at least around 950 mb now.

2019 WP 20 279.965 2019OCT06 231000 15.21 -149.75 2 961 89

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 20W
Sunday 06oct19 Time: 2127 UTC
Latitude: 15.07 Longitude: 150.29
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 7 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 941 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 109 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 9mb +/- 10kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -5.9 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.11
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.49
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1005
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181000527603220481

[Highteeld]

Ryan calling for an full-out, T-8/170 knots. Not that I blame him. This storm has the best conditions I have ever seen!

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1181001890429112321

[Hayabusa]

He did the same with Yutu just sayin