WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Just imagine if recon went into this right now. 5 nm eye?

I'd guess around 145 knots. It's pretty stout.

I'd guess the pressure is likely in the 920 range right now as well.

[euro6208]

Just imagine if recon went into this right now. 5 nm eye?

I'd guess around 145 knots. It's pretty stout.

No doubt a 5. Wilma territory.

One of those cases where recon goes in and finds a very high end 5 skipping 140 to 150 completely after just being a 4. Seen this several times in the ATL.

[Hayabusa]

Just 40 knots more and 2019 Hagibis would tie 2002's cat 5 Hagibis

[Hayabusa]

2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3

[Yellow Evan]

Just imagine if recon went into this right now. 5 nm eye?

I'd guess around 145 knots. It's pretty stout.

No doubt a 5. Wilma territory.

One of those cases where recon goes in and finds a very high end 5 after just being a 4. Seen this several times in the ATL.

Not quite yet Wilma territory, given this *just* cleared out. If this looks like this in 4-6 hours, then yes.

[Highteeld]

I'd guess around 145 knots. It's pretty stout.

No doubt a 5. Wilma territory.

One of those cases where recon goes in and finds a very high end 5 after just being a 4. Seen this several times in the ATL.

Not quite yet Wilma territory, given this *just* cleared out. If this looks like this in 4-6 hours, then yes.

Get a WMG pixel or two in there and there will be a legit argument for 155-160 knots... just needs to happen first

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ28 KNES 070300
TCSWNP

A. 20W (HAGIBIS)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 15.3N

D. 148.9E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.5. 6
HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS A DT OF 5.66. MET = 4.5 AND PT = 5.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS AND 6 HOUR AVERAGE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

Good fix from SAB I think.

[MarioProtVI]

Raw now 7.4. Unbelievable at what I’m seeing right now, I feel so bad for those islands (and it makes me feel like I’m watching Maria doing it’s EI right before the islands in 2017 again). One of the main reasons why recon in the WPac needs to come back as it would be providing a much more accurate intensity. JTWC revised 00z to 100 kt but I think that is likely 35-50 kt off. Hagibis is supposedly supposed to reach C5 in about 24-48h but I think it reached that point a few hours ago.

[1900hurricane]

Increasing CDO diameter on all bands is a good clue that this thing is evacuating air in the center like no one's business.

[Highteeld]

Increasing CDO diameter on all bands is a good clue that this thing is evacuating air in the center like no one's business.

IF there is no erc, in about 6-10 hours, a big heap of that CMG will be CDG, too

[Highteeld]

[1900hurricane]

Increasing CDO diameter on all bands is a good clue that this thing is evacuating air in the center like no one's business.

Especially on visible in full-on daylight.

[CrazyC83]

I'd guess around 145 knots. It's pretty stout.

No doubt a 5. Wilma territory.

One of those cases where recon goes in and finds a very high end 5 after just being a 4. Seen this several times in the ATL.

Not quite yet Wilma territory, given this *just* cleared out. If this looks like this in 4-6 hours, then yes.

Probably within a few hours it will be there. It's likely deepening at incredible rates though - if there was Recon, we'd likely be seeing drops of 10 to 15 millibars per fix (which takes about 90 minutes).

[hurricanes1234]

Increasing CDO diameter on all bands is a good clue that this thing is evacuating air in the center like no one's business.

Especially on visible in full-on daylight.

https://imgur.com/FiZibDx

I seem to have forgotten but where can we get these high contrast visible images?

[1900hurricane]

Increasing CDO diameter on all bands is a good clue that this thing is evacuating air in the center like no one's business.

Especially on visible in full-on daylight.

https://imgur.com/FiZibDx

I seem to have forgotten but where can we get these high contrast visible images?

RAMMB

[Nancy Smar]

TPPN10 PGTW 070340
A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)
B. 07/0300Z
C. 15.29N
D. 148.78E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO ERI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

[Highteeld]

TPPN10 PGTW 070340
A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)
B. 07/0300Z
C. 15.29N
D. 148.78E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO ERI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

Now that's what I'm talking about. D4.0 -- NICE!

[Cunxi Huang]

TPPN10 PGTW 070340
A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)
B. 07/0300Z
C. 15.29N
D. 148.78E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO ERI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

Is this the first JTWC ERI ever?

[Highteeld]

JTWC's balls finally dropped.

[Hayabusa]

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 7 October 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 7 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N15°20' (15.3°)
E148°55' (148.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)