2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1181285370450849794

[LarryWx]

Through 198, the 12Z EPS is a bit quieter than the 0Z.

The 12Z EPS stayed much quieter than the 0Z through the end of the 15 days. I had earlier predicted a more active run. That was a poor prediction on my part.

[Hurricaneman]

Into Nicaragua this run, buried into Central America

[Bhuggs]

Gfs still has it, euro still doesn’t. Not much else to discuss regarding the Caribbean.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS has the timeframe moving up now, but still not much support from the other models.

[floridasun78]

that why you cannot go 120hour or later models runs

[canes92]

The thing with the models is they always seem to have the hurricanes at least 10 days out.

[LarryWx]

The thing with the models is they always seem to have the hurricanes at least 10 days out.

And guess what? Great news regarding the Happy Hour GEFS although folks that want a TC are not going to like it. It is almost as if it is saying it may be about to give up the ghost on a storm. It is far less active than any recent GEFS for 0Z on 10/18, the benchmark I’ve been following for 3+ days. It has far less activity in the W Caribbean!

[chaser1]

Gfs still has it, euro still doesn’t. Not much else to discuss regarding the Caribbean.

GFS with a 1004 low in 138 hr's? It's been consistant AND the time-frame moving closer. I could care less what present forecast track is being presented. Put it to ya thus this way..... if three straight run's were right now showing a bullseye on Miami, would you seriously buy into that I would'nt.

[LarryWx]

The thing with the models is they always seem to have the hurricanes at least 10 days out.

And guess what? Great news regarding the Happy Hour GEFS although folks that want a TC are not going to like it. It is almost as if it is saying it may be about to give up the ghost on a storm. It is far less active than any recent GEFS for 0Z on 10/18, the benchmark I’ve been following for 3+ days. It has far less activity in the W Caribbean!

Folks, There is some not so good news about the Happy Hour GEFS. I just figured out that the reason it is so much less active than any recent GEFS is mainly because it moves many more of the developing sfc lows into Nicaragua and vicinity vs prior runs. Hopefully this is what will happen and thus it never develops much. But what if it is wrong on moving it into Nicaragua?
Here is the 18Z much quieter map as of later in the run, 0Z on 10/18 (look how far much further west are many of the members vs earlier runs concentrated in the NW Caribbean):

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the 0z ICON still had the SW Caribbean system moving NW towards the Yucatan at 180hrs




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[floridasun78]

Fwiw, the 0z ICON still had the SW Caribbean system moving NW towards the Yucatan at 180hrs

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191008/eb54aee509a185ef48f68f4f8a9ddd71.png


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this models not top models for tropical area look like we wont see system dow3n their maybe mess stormy weather that it right now sw Caribbean is dead no storms

[chaser1]

T minus 114 hours..... and counting (GFS 1002 mb low in SW Caribbean)

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS has even less activity than the 18Z. It has a few hits on/near TX and one later one on SW FL. There are no real strong members. Here's the map as of 0Z on 10/18:

[USTropics]

The eventual track and extratropical transition of Hagibis into the mid-latitudes will play an important role into the extent of ridging over North America:


A quicker transition (i.e. Hagibis takes a more eastern and NE track) delays previous GFS forecasts of a mid-latitude trough from reaching the EPAC (instead the two merge). This amplifies the high pressure area over the NW United States and creates a sort of blocking pattern, with the trough over the Great Lakes becoming more zonal instead of previous NE to SW orientations in GFS/GEFS runs. The end result is ridging is allowed to build in over the GOM/WATL. This would create a dominating steering current for any potential system that forms in the Caribbean, moving it at a quicker speed into Central America.


The trend over the past 4 GFS runs has been for a quicker transition:


Comparing the 00z GFS and the 12z ECMWF at day 8, they are actually quite similar now:
00z GFS


12z ECMWF


This is of course a long range forecast, and the details will certainly change. The GFS has trended towards the ECMWF, however.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/VBXWFPd
End of next week EPS ens warming up.

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/VBXWFPd.png
https://imgur.com/VBXWFPd
End of next week EPS ens warming up.

Not sure if I would call that 'warming up' - It's actually very quiet- just one rogue ensemble member spinning up that storm near the Bahamas

[N2FSU]

6z GFS



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[SFLcane]

Other then some high latitude stuff the season could be over for the Conus. That is the hope atleast

[LarryWx]

The 6Z GEFS is still another of the much quieter runs thanks largely to it moving most members into Central America. There’s only one of 21 members worth noting for the US with it coming in near the LA/TX border on 10/21. Here’s the map as of 0Z on 10/18, the benchmark time I’ve been following: