NEW MOON PATH 2020

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The sea surface temperature model shown here is from the beginning of the month. Evidently there is an issue with the system. The polar regions seem to be clear of variations. This time of year that is not possible. The next three weeks after August 4, 2019 the raster images aren't posted.

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Global water vapor has been unusually steady for the last few months. It is staying about 35% over it minimum coverage.

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The September 2019 New Moon Path update has a new SST provider the CPC provider is having problems getting the GIS raster into the folder. This raster is projected, but it doesn't have the precision of the CPC's.

As the season changes to fall the New Moon alignment is near the equator. Fall is the time when the latitude of the Sun crosses the equator. The New Moon follows the Sun in this progression and it's latitude will also be South of the equator after this month. The influence of the New Moon on cyclonic activity is always when the latitude is within 10 degrees of the storms latitude. 91W might get a tweak from this pass on the 27th or 28.

The pass skirts the Mid Atlantic Ridge, so not much earthquake influence is expected at this lunar distance.

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The September water vapor coverage is 7 percent larger than this time last year. NRL has tweaked the stitched global image to account for the innovations onboard GOES "R" series. There is some small coverage gaps at the poles, but the width of the coverage at the equator is exceptional.

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This is the New Moon Path for October. The government websites I use to build these maps are functioning poorly. The SST raster is 2 weeks old and I had to calculate the Moons position. That being said looks like the New moon is beginning it's dive into the cold waters of the south Pacific. as it passes through some of the warmest waters on the planet. There has been a couple of significant earthquakes in the southern Philippines last month. Everything is quite now.

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This is a significant change in the trend line for global water vapor for the New Moon Phase. This downturn in cloud cover is contrary to the recent activity where the trend line was running sideways, and normally the October cloud coverage is greater than the September cloud coverage.

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This looks much like September's moon's pass, lower in latitude, cooler and dryer. the Moon is close to a geologic active area.

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The downturn in global water vapor continues. This could be the limit of the increase of global water vapor due
to the increase of land mass and the elevation of that land mass at latitudes north of 22°22'.

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This is a profile of the land mass at 22°22'

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The latitude of the December 2019 New Moon is near Western Australia approaching the cool South Pacific. There is some geologic faulting in the area. There are no indications of interactions expected cyclonic or geologic.

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Total global water vapor is still on the decline. This is probably due to a couple of factors. First the Northern reach of the New Moon at aphelion crosses a lot of land, and the second is that the southern reach of the New Moon is in cold water. This could be a decadal trend being that peak New Moon latitude is 2025.

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The January 2020 New Moon Path is skirting the cold waters of the South Pacific. The moon is reaching apogee, so global earthquake frequency is expected to be elevated.

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I missed the capture window in the archive, NRL upgraded processing software.

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This is some cooler water and will probably limit accelerated evaporation. Alos the New Moon is passing over a geologically active area with the Earth Moon distance near it's maximum a few more global earthquakes might be expected.

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The trend for February global water is down for the second year.

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This is a different look for this product. The reason for the change is the remarkable change in water temperature that the season is to look forward to. This map shows the path of the New Moon moving into a Inter Tropical Convergence Zone that is up to 5 degrees warmer than last year from a zone that is up to 5 degrees cooler than last year. There is an average change of zero , but the northern hemisphere is warming faster begging the question: "Is the a plus 3 degree half century temperature target meaningful?"

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Global water vapor still falling, posting a steady 7.5% year over year decline.

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This months moon path cuts across the meteorological equator. Compared to this time last year it looks as if the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) has consolidated and warmest water of the Western Pacific has moved North 1,500 kilometers and West 2,000 kilometers, also the size of the warm pool has doubled.

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This is the year over year change of sst change for April 2020 minus 2019. The water that the New Moon crosses this month is warmer by a standard deviation, and the water south of the equator is definitely cooler by the same amount.

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This is the New Moon phase plot for May 2020. On the 21st the moon enters the Caribbean where the waters are a little warmer than last year. The New Moon is directly over Haiti. In the past when this has occurred the there has been a 15 percent chance of a 3.8 magnitude quake or larger at the red circled locations. The average total number of quakes in the area is 40 during a New Moon pass over the area