91S INVEST 191127 1800 7.0S 55.0E SHEM 15 0
SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
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- 1900hurricane
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SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
This appears to be the area La Reunion is monitoring as well.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:23 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: SWIO: Invest 91S
Most models develop this into a TD by tomorrow and have it make landfall in northern Madagascar by late Saturday/early Sunday. We could see a hurricane-equivalent system out of this in a few days.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Disturbance 02 (Invest 91S)
12z GFS takes this a little further west, where it misses the northern tip of Madagascar and enters a pocket of higher SSTs/OHC with a maximum potential intensity of 880-890 mbar and >150 kt. While 91S is unlikely to get close to that (the models are pretty lukewarm on intensity estimates), we could still see a moderately significant system out of this. It already seems to be a TD as of the 12z best track update.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Disturbance 02 (Invest 91S)
18z GFS is more aggressive (<970 mbar) and keeps 91S within the NW Madagascar hot spot.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- wxman57
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Re: SWIO: Depression (02S)
5Z ASCAT had 40kt winds, yet no upgrade from La Reunion. Wake up, people!
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
Belna may also be gearing up for a phase of RI. The CDO has become larger and much more impressive over the last 12 hours, comparable to that of Ambali before it started ERI. Microwave imagery also shows a forming eyewall as some of the experimental intensity estimations put it near 65 kt.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH022020
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH022020
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
Due to its track and expected intensification this system is very dangerous as if the people in southeast Africa didn't have enough with that imperactive last season
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
This one looks ready to go off
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
Now a Cat 1 with 1-minute sustained winds of 65 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
An eyewall seems to be developing: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 062140.GIF
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Severe Tropical Storm
Belma’s eye is appearing as it moves closer to the hot spot off the NW Madagascar coast. Rapid intensification could be starting soon, either today or tomorrow.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Cyclone
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Cyclone
Microwave pass from a few hours ago shows a closed and very well defined eyewall: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 070910.GIF
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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