Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2101 Postby Haris » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:05 am

This should be called the Dallas winter thread. :lol:
2 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2102 Postby Cerlin » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:09 am

Haris wrote:This should be called the Dallas winter thread. :lol:

Hey, I wouldn’t mind!! :lol: (just kidding)
2 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2103 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:10 am

Haris wrote:This should be called the Dallas winter thread. :lol:


Haha It’s been almost half a decade for most metroplexers...it’s time for the snow hole to fill in!!!
4 likes   

Jarodm12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:05 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2104 Postby Jarodm12 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:13 am

If we get anything like the nam icon and gfs are predicting roads will surely be closed, this is getting exciting , winter wonder land here we come!
3 likes   

Jarodm12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:05 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2105 Postby Jarodm12 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:57 am

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?
0 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2106 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:03 pm

Cerlin wrote:So, we’re 3-4 days out and the GFS is showing 14 inches for parts of the metroplex and the Euro is showing practically nothing...I’m used to the models disagreeing, especially these two, but I’ve never seen it differ so much.

The Euro has been bad with winter storms in the past couple years.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22786
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2107 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:07 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?


It will pick up soon. Once winter storm watches goes up then it gets real.
7 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2108 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:13 pm

12z GEFS matches up with the 06z Euro & EPS making the 12z GFS a major outlier.

Image
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2109 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:14 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?


The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching
5 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2110 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:19 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Jarodm12 wrote:Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?


The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching


I'm reluctant to go all in on any of the models until I open the door and the S××× is hitting the fan. :ggreen:
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38091
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2111 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:21 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Jarodm12 wrote:Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?


The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching


This

Say what you want about the Euro but it's still a very well respected model in professional circles

And hasn't the CMC been outscoring the GFS? Pretty sure that was posted here last week

Don't get me wrong I would love nothing more than for the snowy GFS maps to verify but we have to be a bit realistic here and honestly if anything since last night there's been a trend towards the Euro/CMC
2 likes   
#neversummer

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2112 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:43 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z GEFS matches up with the 06z Euro & EPS making the 12z GFS a major outlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1580644800/1581195600-C9ri9TVFGLk.png


QPF shield isn't too drastically different though, it's the snowfall accumulation maps that are drastic. The temp profile is making these maps look confusing and it's still way too early to pin down temp forecasts. QPF ranges from .25 to .75 inch on almost all models after midnight Tuesday when DFW looks like to be reaching freezing...qpf is what I worry most about in these setups as temps are almost always 2-3 deg F too high in this range (particularly on the Euro model) and lack of qpf doesn't appear to be a problem in this instance. It looks like qpf will be there for accumulations - will it be freezing rain, sleet or snow is the major ? mark. Obviously, the further NW you are in North Texas the better your chances of seeing significant accumulations.
5 likes   

Jarodm12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:05 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2113 Postby Jarodm12 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:49 pm

Brent wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
Jarodm12 wrote:Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?


The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching


This

Say what you want about the Euro but it's still a very well respected model in professional circles

And hasn't the CMC been outscoring the GFS? Pretty sure that was posted here last week

Don't get me wrong I would love nothing more than for the snowy GFS maps to verify but we have to be a bit realistic here and honestly if anything since last night there's been a trend towards the Euro/CMC


Im in southern Oklahoma the canadian is producing an ice storm for me, and has me below freezing all day in durant. I guess I hear what you're saying but the gfs isnt the only model producing these totals, the nam is as well, the issue here is cold air, do you really believe it will be 10 degees too warm? The nam is even colder than the Canadian, I don't know man, I guess let's wait for the euro and the 18z models, unless the nam suddenly warms us up this looks pretty promising
Last edited by Jarodm12 on Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2114 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:49 pm

When comparing the 00z Euro to the 12z GFS, one thing of note is that the Euro detaches the trough from the northern stream allowing the SE ridge to hold strong. This also allows for a longer duration of WAA out in front of the system. The timing on this is always tricky and our best systems usually have a front running northern stream system that sends down a batch of cold air. In this setup, we probably either need things to trend towards the GFS or for our system to completely cutoff and come across Texas as a bowling ball. The Euro setup would tend to favor a deep warm layer aloft, even if we could get the surface to freezing in DFW.

12z GFS

Image

00z Euro

Image

There isn't a huge difference in between the two but enough to shift the favored area for snow by 100s of miles.
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22786
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2115 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:53 pm

bubba hotep wrote:When comparing the 00z Euro to the 12z GFS, one thing of note is that the Euro detaches the trough from the northern stream allowing the SE ridge to hold strong. This also allows for a longer duration of WAA out in front of the system. The timing on this is always tricky and our best systems usually have a front running northern stream system that sends down a batch of cold air. In this setup, we probably either need things to trend towards the GFS or for our system to completely cutoff and come across Texas as a bowling ball. The Euro setup would tend to favor a deep warm layer aloft, even if we could get the surface to freezing in DFW.

12z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020212/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

00z Euro

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020020200/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_4.png

There isn't a huge difference in between the two but enough to shift the favored area for snow by 100s of miles.


If you account for biases, the slower Euro often has this issue. That creates a longer duration of WAA. I still believe something in between. If the 500mb heights are as low as it is showing, I am fully expecting it to bust quite a bit for temperatures. GFS did beat the Euro short term in this regard a few weeks ago (didn't see a flake where euro had it way northwest in the panhandles and instead was along I-20.

Going below 540dm with 850s well below 0C to me translates to 20s realistically (if the heights verified) than above freezing. 550s you might be on fence but this is way lower.
5 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38091
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2116 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:03 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:
Brent wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching


This

Say what you want about the Euro but it's still a very well respected model in professional circles

And hasn't the CMC been outscoring the GFS? Pretty sure that was posted here last week

Don't get me wrong I would love nothing more than for the snowy GFS maps to verify but we have to be a bit realistic here and honestly if anything since last night there's been a trend towards the Euro/CMC


Im in southern Oklahoma the canadian is producing an ice storm for me, and has me below freezing all day in durant. I guess I hear what you're saying but the gfs isnt the only model producing these totals, the nam is as well, the issue here is cold air, do you really believe it will be 10 degees too warm? The nam is even colder than the Canadian, I don't know man, I guess let's wait for the euro and the 18z models, unless the nam suddenly warms us up this looks pretty promising


I'm talking more about DFW honestly. I don't doubt there will be a winter storm to the NW and up in Oklahoma
Last edited by Brent on Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
#neversummer

rendihess
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:30 pm
Location: Dallas (Flower Mound)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2117 Postby rendihess » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:08 pm

Hello! Northwest of DFW as in Flower Mound or way more north and west?


orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z GEFS matches up with the 06z Euro & EPS making the 12z GFS a major outlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1580644800/1581195600-C9ri9TVFGLk.png


QPF shield isn't too drastically different though, it's the snowfall accumulation maps that are drastic. The temp profile is making these maps look confusing and it's still way too early to pin down temp forecasts. QPF ranges from .25 to .75 inch on almost all models after midnight Tuesday when DFW looks like to be reaching freezing...qpf is what I worry most about in these setups as temps are almost always 2-3 deg F too high in this range (particularly on the Euro model) and lack of qpf doesn't appear to be a problem in this instance. It looks like qpf will be there for accumulations - will it be freezing rain, sleet or snow is the major ? mark. Obviously, the further NW you are in North Texas the better your chances of seeing significant accumulations.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38091
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2118 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:15 pm

12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong :spam:

(I hope it is actually )

Image
1 likes   
#neversummer

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2119 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:18 pm

Brent wrote:12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong :spam:

(I hope it is actually )

https://i.ibb.co/phKHvLc/sn10-acc-us-sc-8.png

This actually looks like a more southeastern shift of the snow line from previous Euro runs, ever so slightly. I could be wrong though.
0 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2120 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:19 pm

Brent wrote:12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong :spam:

(I hope it is actually )

https://i.ibb.co/phKHvLc/sn10-acc-us-sc-8.png


It’s going towards the GFS with the convective look of the initial wave....just not seeing snow at this time. Way more DFW qpf after early Wednesday morning than prior runs, good sign! Also, 2-3 deg F colder
Last edited by orangeblood on Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests