Texas Spring 2020

[Brent]

The end of the HRRR has storms blowing up just west of Denton and Fort Worth

[bubba hotep]

The end of the HRRR has storms blowing up just west of Denton and Fort Worth
https://i.ibb.co/F0s0W2T/hrrr-ref-frzn-scus-18.png

https://i.ibb.co/6D929f5/57-AB806-D-E034-498-E-A701-32-EFA6085252.png

This has some higher end potential, if things play out.

[cheezyWXguy]

The end of the HRRR has storms blowing up just west of Denton and Fort Worth
https://i.ibb.co/F0s0W2T/hrrr-ref-frzn-scus-18.png

https://i.ibb.co/6D929f5/57-AB806-D-E034-498-E-A701-32-EFA6085252.png

The hrrr graphic actually doesn’t depict the storms that are most concerning, though those do look quite potent. Those are the early day storms mentioned in the AFD. If it turns out the HRRR is overdoing those and they don’t play out, it’s the next round around 4-7pm that are the real tornado threat. The 18z 3k nam shows this.

I should also note, I feel like I’ve been burned quite a few times by buying into the HRRR’s overly discrete storms, only to watch it play out as an MCS as depicted on the NAM. In cases like this where the NAM shows the more concerning scenario, my ears perk up. Doesn’t mean it will play out like that, but it’s pretty clear this setup bears watching.

[bubba hotep]

00z HRRRs look messy with not even much rain for DFW. The 00z 3k NAM fires storms west of DFW but then kills them off? This is the sounding over DFW out in front of those storms.

[bubba hotep]

[cheezyWXguy]

00z HRRRs look messy with not even much rain for DFW. The 00z 3k NAM fires storms west of DFW but then kills them off? This is the sounding over DFW out in front of those storms.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2020042200_NAMNST_021_33.12,-96.94_severe_ml.png

I can’t really think of what it would be. The atmosphere is uncapped with huge instability, there’s plenty of forcing, shear, moisture and a dryline. There may even be outflow boundaries from the remnants of tonight’s storms in Oklahoma. Doesn’t make much sense to me.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWKiMhhVcAA2jhs?format=jpg&name=small

I saw that. It seems like they’re banking on the first round scouring the atmosphere, but not even the HRRR shows this anymore.

[Brent]

00z HRRRs look messy with not even much rain for DFW. The 00z 3k NAM fires storms west of DFW but then kills them off? This is the sounding over DFW out in front of those storms.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2020042200_NAMNST_021_33.12,-96.94_severe_ml.png

I'm so confused

The Oklahoma storms tonight are far more widespread than what the hi res models showed earlier

[bubba hotep]

Looking at current radar loops and the 00z Hi-Res models... I don't think any of them did a good job with coverage or the more pronounced SE motion.

[bubba hotep]

Nice split out near Haskell, TX

[Brent]

Mike Seidel is coming to Dallas

I guess at least it's not Cantore

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado warnings in south central Oklahoma, about an hour and a half northwest of me. Radar indicated and a report of a wall cloud — the year of nighttime tornadoes continues.

[Brent]

The SPC day 1 did nudge the hatched tornado to east of Dallas but Steve McCauley's graphic is definitely still reason to be concerned. Also the SPC has the significant hail bullseye over the metro so there's that

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the first significant tornado day of the season for East Texas.

[Ntxw]

Storm initiation likely plays key role today. Areas to the northeast/east of the metroplex and of course to the south/southeast has a better chance. Position of the surface low is not ideal and may dry slot much of us. Any cells that do fire up will produce quite a bit of hail.

On a side note April has reversed course from March. It has been well below normal in temperature and rainfall is running below normal as well with just a little over an inch (April is one of the wetter months).

[WacoWx]

I assume since these morning storms didn’t form as planned, we have a juicier atmosphere in place for storms as the dry line approaches in the coming hours?

The weather Channel future radar pops the storms east of the metroplex leaving DFW dry.

[rwfromkansas]

Both NAM and HRRR say what severe weather. Only a couple tiny storms popped here or there, and maybe not until east of DFW.

[cheezyWXguy]

Storm initiation likely plays key role today. Areas to the northeast/east of the metroplex and of course to the south/southeast has a better chance. Position of the surface low is not ideal and may dry slot much of us. Any cells that do fire up will produce quite a bit of hail.

On a side note April has reversed course from March. It has been well below normal in temperature and rainfall is running below normal as well with just a little over an inch (April is one of the wetter months).

Could you explain a bit more on the dry-slotting? It doesnt look like capping or moisture are a problem to me. Is it something to do with how forcing on that side of the system affects convective development?

[EnnisTx]

From NWS Ft. Worth:
They moved the large hail and tornado threat to the West from Waco to Ft. Worth to between Bowie and Denton.

Today will remain fairly active as a dryline approaches the region from the west. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible starting late this morning and through the afternoon hours. All types of severe weather will be possible. Make sure to remain weather aware today and have a trusted weather sources in case severe weather threatens your location.

[rwfromkansas]

The FWD graphic moved the red to Fort Worth for later timing and added more of a tornado threat.